Thursday update

SHORT TERM: market tries to rebound, DOW +39

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened higher, got a Monday start date on EQE, and rose 0.8%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 320k v 313k. The market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 2099 close. After a dip to SPX 2098 in the opening minutes the market rose to 2104 by 10:30. At 10am Factory orders were reported lower: -0.2% v -3.4%. Then after a pullback to SPX 2098 by 11am, a bounce to 2103 by noon, and a pullback to 2095 by 1pm, the market tried to rally. The market made it back to SPX 2103 by 3pm, then dipped to closes at 2101.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.25%. Bonds gained 6 ticks, Crude slid 65 cents, Gold slipped $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: the Payrolls report (est. +240k) and Trade deficit at 8:30, then Consumer credit at 3pm.

The market opened higher today, hit SPX 2104 in the am, 2095 in the afternoon, then spent the rest of the day within that range. Thus far, we could count a 1-2 of sorts from yesterday’s SPX 2088 low: 2104-2095. However, until the market clears today’s high, today’s action can still be considered part of Minor 4. Monthly payrolls tomorrow could be the deciding factor. Short term support is at SPX 2095 and the 2085 pivot, with resistance at SPX 2104 andΒ SPX 2120. Short term momentum vacillated around neutral, ending above neutral. Best to your payrolls trading tomorrow!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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131 Responses to Thursday update

  1. buddyglove says:

    This Drop has got C.N. out of the woodshed, Just got 23 tweets in a row from him on twitter… LoL

  2. Peter Sliney says:

    Where’s Yellen where’s the CB? Where’s Mark Cuban complaining about speed traders? Where’s my red button?

  3. simpleiam says:

    Lots of folks awaiting tonight’s and WEU on Saturday morning.

  4. 7dayyss says:

    Monday to 2050 for 50% for turnaround Tuesday, or continue on Tues to 2034 for 62% and gets over quick? Will see.

  5. torehund says:

    Gallos, fight of 2 currencies and possible implications. Dollar in cycle wave 3 may be of a very long duration.

  6. Lee X says:

    Days of the post count being under 100 are over for a while eh ?

  7. uncle10 says:

    this may be the bottom for the Canadian banks but it doesn’t look like it. Nice down trend in place. Easier to make money shorting things that are in down trend and buying things in an uptrend.
    There’s my advice.
    Good weekend all. πŸ™‚

  8. mjtplayer says:

    Minor 4 count blown-up today, minor wave 1 breached on the DOW & SPX.

    3 Counts that I see:

    – Pulling back in int ii now (or minor 2 of int i, but that’s an optimistic stretch)

    – Pulling back in int iv of major 5 inside an ED pattern. Downside to 2,050-ish area and 1 final push higher in int v of major 5 to complete P3

    – Pulling back in int a of major A of P4

  9. H D says:

    They grow up so fast, hard to believe this little guy is 6 years old today. Good times.
    2070 pivot anyone?

    • simpleiam says:

      This is the first 6-yr. old bankster, shyster, robber-of-the-middle-class, Fed-induced rally I’ve ever known. Wonder what he will be when he grows up?

      • H D says:

        Simple, I think a lot of people share your ideology. Personally, think you’re on the wrong side of history though. Sky isn’t falling for anybody that’s trying, especially the middle class. USA!

        • simpleiam says:

          HD, I don’t think the sky is falling. I’m absolutely bullish. You’ve judged me wrongly. The post was meant as a jab to just the kind of thinking of the other side. Believe what you will though.

    • robnaardin says:

      Appears a potential 5 min IHS has completed a LS and head. Just needs a RS now.

  10. sibyn says:

    @ sverkerericsson
    OMXS30 If RCH then –>1247 May/June -26,6%, SPX –>1820 -14,13%

  11. llerias7 says:

    So…are we in minor 4 down to OEW1970 like I always said…or in the Int. II after a failed 5th wave on Int. I ? Either way should see “consolidation” for an entire week!

  12. filipozze says:

    this is very clear for me..the rally from october low is the first leg of an ending diagonal pattern..this pullback is leg 3 of this pattern, so the top should arrive between 2130 & 2145. this view is supported by the VIX price action consolidation triangle it may spike up next months

  13. robnaardin says:

    Rally Time

    • torehund says:

      Ha,ha agree, one of my nanos had a shelf offering, Chartslook like Cliffs of Dover. But thats ok, an X does nothing good and mostly nothing bad.
      Ready for some monkey buisness soon, robnaardin.

  14. lunker1 says:

    Watching for possible backtest of neckline at 2088 might go to top of pivot 2092

  15. Hi Tony,
    What are your parameters for Int wave 2?

    • JD C. says:

      Uzan, just use a simple fib retrace for the move from 1981 to 2120. Usually 50% or 62%. Sometimes shallower.

  16. simpleiam says:

    Interesting that VIX is up over 9%, yet no real buying in the VIX instruments that I can see. Tells me that this is thought to be temporary and not a big down trend.

    • mjtplayer says:

      No, the VIX instruments hold VIX futures. The March & April contracts are higher, but not as much as spot VIX that’s been suppressed recently. In means in the very short-term, the VIX was oversold and is now readjusting higher, back in-line with the futures curve and a normal contango, not a steep contango due to spot being oversold.

      The curve is closer to where it should be now, although spot and the March contract are still a but suppressed and should rally a bit more.

    • EagleSeagle says:

      Concur…just goes to show how the VIX instruments are poor trackers of the VIX…

  17. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ WS4 @ 208.28 ~ 34ema @ 208
    GL & Good Weekend All

  18. torehund says:

    The graph I tried to post yesterday, however another graph sneaked in like a thief in the night. But here its is, X-sickness, sure market is infested by it… πŸ™‚ I would expect the dollar to hike up some more before brent eventually runs…But for oil investors this X is as good as it gets.

  19. ashram says:

    Key reversal week in DJI.
    Exercise extreme caution until some positive technical developments occur.

  20. lunker1 says:

    H&S target 2054

  21. On SPX, looks like a 30 point or so head and shoulders pattern nearly complete.

  22. mjtplayer says:

    Gold is toast. Lower lows and lower highs form the recent $1,307 high. .618 and 2/3 retrace levels have been exceeded, .786 retrace at $1,168 is the last hope, but it seems unlikely to hold. The “uptrend” line from the $1,130 low has also given way.

    There’s nothing bullish to see in gold, next stop is $1,130 and probably lower – stay away unless your short.

  23. GYN LAB says:

    Hats off to you mh.. frighteningly accurate forecast this week!

    mh says:
    March 1, 2015 at 11:53 am

    Don’t look at the past, get a look into the future! Where will S&P 500 close next friday? Wonderful weekly forecast is ready at

  24. ashram says:

    This is the type of distribution pattern that stock market bears have lacked:

  25. fishonhook says:

    There we go. Fed has got to their desks and filled the WS shysters accounts full of trading money and uuupp it goes again.

  26. GYN LAB says:

    S&P 500 gap down open around .786 retracement of 2087-2104 at 2091, breaking above Mr T’s key 2104 and up we go for iii of Minor 5, break below 2087 and we are still stuck in Minor 4!

  27. rc1269 says:

    AAPL to join the DJIA

    for all those long time hopefuls out there… πŸ™‚

  28. fotis2 says:

    And I really hope everyone here finds himself on the winning side today. πŸ˜‰ πŸ˜‰

  29. fotis2 says:

    Closed long on SP for a smalll profit starting to look dodgy, momentum indicator is favouring a leg down on daily chart.$/yen short to 119.45- wedge break and close. Light crude still long.GL to all caution on long side today.

  30. rabbittrader1 says:

    The CEO’s of XON and ZIOP are not concerned , only the BIG PHARMA,s. Dont TAR the rest with that Brush .I worked for Merck Sharpe & Dome, and Stauffer Chemical. The true Biotech.s are going to Explode in value. Rabbit. .

  31. rabbittrader1 says:

    TWO STOCKS for tonight : : Also a quote from anonymous ” People don’t care how much you know, until they know HOW MUCH YOU CARE ” The stocks are: XON and ZIOP, both biotechnology companies. Look them up. ! I am buying both tomorrow morning. Rabbit.

  32. SPX – Does anyone see an inverted cup with handle using a 30 min chart?. Could it be it is signaling a rising price.

    • sibyn says:

      That’s why it ‘s hard to break 2104 (handle is there and done alredy) goal (RCH) 2061,71.
      If SPX breaks 2104 (handle) then RCH fails and SPX goes up to 2112.

      • sibyn says:

        Timeframe 2-3 days before break down. (friday or monday 6-9Mars break down 2084)
        Breakpoint =2084>2061

        • sibyn says:

          You also have a HS (built in RCH) with neck line around 2087.
          Breakpoint HS RCH 2084 —>2054,4 – 2061
          RCH fails at 2104 (lite), Max pain for RCH is 2111,4
          If we hit 2111 and go down again RCH is still in play with breakpoint 2084—>2054-2061

  33. ashram says:

    Daily momentum indicators are not yet aligned at oversold, but one good swift kick in the short and curlies would get us there, and that would create an excellent risk/reward buying opportunity:$SPX&p=D&st=2014-01-04&en=today&id=p44699362022&a=397327731&listNum=141

  34. mjtplayer says:

    Darkness – no doubt biotech is in a bubble, but that doesn’t mean it won’t continue higher.

    There are 2 rules regarding bubbles:

    1) They can, and usually do, last longer and move higher than most expect

    2) They all end the same way – with a massive bust of -80% or so. Look at the major bubbles throughout time, they all collapse roughly 80% (70% – 90%) from high to low. Oil from 2008 – 2009, Nasdaq from 2000 – 2002, DOW from 1929 – 1932, gold from 1980 – 1999

    That said,, the major bubbles through-out time move higher by about 15-fold from low to high before crashing. Nasdaq 1990 – 2000 (15x), Oil from 1998 – 2008 (15x), gold from 1966 – 1980 (21x), etc, etc. As Tony mentioned, biotech is up 650% or something since 2009 – that’s only 7.5-fold (7.5x starting value).

    • MJT- I disagree. Your 2 rules are ridiculous . There are no rules regarding elevated prices, euphoric periods or ( whatever a bubble is) .. $ btk is up 40x since 1998 lows and 15 x from 2002. Of course , it can go higher, it can also go lower – it will never stay the same.
      Thanks for the expert advice

      • CB says:

        “There are no rules regarding elevated prices, euphoric periods or ( whatever a bubble is)…”
        Darkness, yes, there is one very simple rule πŸ™‚ …3 trendlines ..Ashram was applying it to $SPX a while ago on a weekly scale, if I remember correctly. You draw 3 consequtively steeper trendlines, and when the 3rd one gets broken to the downside, it’s time to say buh bye πŸ˜‰ There was a nice article about it in “TA of Stocks and Commodities,” a year or two ago, which I unfortunately cannot locate right now, But here is another link that describes the concept well. Pretty simple and easy to use.
        For BIB, for instance, it would mean bfreaking below $135 right now.

  35. vikasvrao says:

    Tony, any thoughts on BRK-B? Cant find a chart with a good count on it.

  36. torehund says:

    Got the weong chart for You and Internett trouble new brent chart tomorrow

  37. This might offer some perspective of where the Nasdaq ( aapl & bio’s )
    This chart is $btk ( biotech ) vs. $xlk ( tech ).
    Tech may not be in a bubble but bio’s sure could

  38. esvxm says:

    Thanks Tony for the analysis!

    S&P 500 Dow Jones Industrial Transporters Utilities and Nasdaq:

  39. bhupal777 says:

    Thanks Tony. If tomorrow doesn’t bring the much waited KRE breakout then the lesson learned will be ‘Don’t enter before the breakout’. Not the first time, probably 1000th time doing the same mistake and still not learned myself πŸ™‚ Too much overhead resistance b/w 40 and 41.

    • CB says:

      bhupal, you may want to look at something that has already broken out and wait for a re-test. Less risk, imo. Also, V-shapes are quite risky. KRE seems to have a lot of V-shapes. GL with whatever you choose to pursue.

      • bhupal777 says:

        Agree CB. Thanks for the suggestion. Most of my other positions are entered like that. Some reason I got caught up with KRE. One more bad habit to get rid of.

    • jobjas says:

      KRE on uptrend / target 45

      • bhupal777 says:

        Jobjas, Your SPX count is screaming for correction and it is unusual for KRE to go up when rest of the market is going down. But all that matters for me is KRE going up. Thanks for the adding your comments.

  40. llerias7 says:

    Thank you, TC.
    I suspect we should remain in a minor 4 consolidation mode…broadening formation?

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