SHORT TERM: gap down opening again, DOW -106
Last night FED chair Yellen’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20150303a.htm. Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.8%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.8%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:15 the ADP index was reported lower: 212k v 213k. The SPX gapped down at the open to 2099 and continued lower. The market had closed at SPX 2108 yesterday. At 10am ISM services was reported higher: 56.9 v 56.7. Around 10:30 the SPX hit 2088, was quite oversold, and started to rally. By 12:30 the SPX had reached 2101 before starting to pullback again. At 2pm the FED’s Beige book was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook/beigebook20150304.htm. Just past 2pm the SPX hit 2094 and then tried to rally. Around 3:30 the SPX hit 2100 then dipped to close at 2099.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.30%. Bonds gained 6 ticks, Crude rallied $1.25, Gold slipped $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: the ECB meets before the open, weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, Factory orders at 10am, then Stress test results after the close.
The market gapped down at the open for the second day in a row. Soon after the open the market dropped below yesterday’s SPX 2098 low and entered the 2085 pivot range at 2088. After that the market tried to rally for the rest of the day, hitting a high of SPX 2101, then closing at 2099. The pullback from the recent failed 5th Minor 3 SPX 2118 high reached 30 points today. This is the exact same length as Minor wave 2 (2072-2042).
Should the market continue higher from today’s low, crossing SPX 2109 would help confirm, Minor wave 4 could be done with Minor 5 underway. If the pullback continues lower, especially dropping below SPX 2072, then the entire rally (1981-2120) could have been just Minor wave 1 of this uptrend, and this is a Minor 2 pullback. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2020 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day at neutral. The ECB meets tomorrow, then monthly Payrolls on Friday. Always interesting. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market