Friday update

SHORT TERM: pullback continues, DOW -82

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.6%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.5%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 Q2 GDP was reported lower: +2.2% v +2.6%. The market opened one point below yesterdays SPX 2111 close, ticked up to 2012, dipped to 2006, and then tried to rally. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported lower: 45.8 v 54.9. At 10am Consumer sentiment was reported higher: 95.4 v 93.6, and Pending home sales were higher: +1.7% v -3.7%. Around 12:30 the SPX hit 2113 and then started to pullback. At 1:30 FED vice chair Fischer’s speech was released: Heading into the close the SPX hit 2104 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.45%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude rose $1.05, Gold added $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 45.5% v 45.7%.

The market opened lower again today, bounced around in the first few minutes, hit SPX 2106, then rallied to 2113 just past noon. After that it pulled back for the rest of the day, retesting yesterday’s low at SPX 2104. This entire week traded in a 17 point range. Nothing to add to yesterday’s report, except that the USD was quiet and Crude rallied. We will cover all the potential short term counts in the weekend update. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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23 Responses to Friday update

  1. simpleiam says:

    Since the Friday Update only has 20 posts, I’ll put the mojo here too. Site boss can delete if he wants. I’m going outside for some vino and conversation.

  2. esvxm says:

    Thanks Tony for the analysis!

    GDX closes above that level, next here:

    JC Penney, a wild day comes to an end. Check out the levels here:

    Stock and bond markets update during the weekend…

  3. 56rambler says:

    Mr. Caldaro,

    The labels in green on the chart – i at 2102, ii at 2085, iii at 2119, and iv at 2104 – are those green because they are tentative or are they dark green because they are minute?


  4. lunker1 says:

    Nice labeling on the 60 minute. Thanks Tony.

  5. mh says:

    Thank you, Tony. The usual weekly check out confirms the forecast done on Sunday.

  6. Looks like 5 waves down in the afternoon. Two options come to mind. Either the ABC correction is complete or just wave A is complete. Nice weekend to all.

    • CB says:

      Thanks TJ. 2119 to 2105 looked kind of impulsive too.

      • robnaardin says:

        Chillax CB

        Does this look infected…

        Reload with link

        • CB says:

          lol.. good 1, Rob. I’d love to chillax, Rob….but… 😉
          Umm, how do I put this delicately…broken wedges aren’t perty …. Here’s is my “concerned” musical response, OK? : ) (OK , it’s not gonna be THAT bad , just a little bit).
          Hey I like your $Nysi and $Nasi charts, Rob…and would like to understand better how you use them. One thing that comes to mind looking at them is that both indicators seem to be at levels consistent with intermediate highs , not lows… Whatcha say, Rob?

          • robnaardin says:

            Ok CB, Good Question.

            At 1820 the daily macd is oversold, so the macd on wave up to 2079, looks like a wave 1 to me and the corrective wave to 1980 looks like a wave 2 on the macd to me. Since then it looks like a wave 3 is uptrending and it looks like 3.1 may have completed at 2119 and wave 3.2 is underway. Bounce off the 20 ma is my guess.

            If this is a wave 3, As long as the nysi and nasi parabolic sar is uptending, there’s no need to worry about a top. Nysi and nasi will top first, then the indices will top and the spx 20 ma will look like it’s going to roll over.

        • CB says:

          Very interesting, Rob. Thank you very much for that. You get a nice clean signal using those indicators. Holy chill, now I can really chillax 😉

          I have some technical concerns as I’ve already mentioned, and I think that unless we see some real strength on Monday this correction continues. I like your first target area, Rob. Let’s see how everything looks once we get there. Have a great week everyone! And , thanks for that cool indie music from Canada, Rob.

  7. CB says:

    Thanks Tony, That +div on 60 min has been destroyed imho. Happy wknd & GL everyone!

  8. fotis2 says:

    Thanks Tony sneaky index still nothing to chew on maybe,hopefully Monday

  9. 56rambler says:

    Looking forward to the WU – Thanks, Mr. Caldaro!

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