SHORT TERM: new highs again, DOW +15
Overnight the Asian markets finished mixed. Europe opened higher but lost 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight, but the market opened one point below yesterday’s SPX 2115 close. In the opening minutes the market dipped to SPX 2111, then turned higher. At 10am New home sales were reported unchanged at 481k. The market made a new high at SPX 2120 by 1:30. Then it started to pullback. The pullback hit SPX 2110 around 3pm, then the market bounced to close at 2114.
For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.10%. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude rose $1.50, Gold added $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims, the CPI, and Durable goods orders at 8:30, then the FHFA index at 9am.
The market opened one point lower today, dipped a bit lower, then rallied to a new high at SPX 2120. After that the market had its first notable pullback since Friday’s low at SPX 2085. While a 10 point pullback after a 35 point rally looks quite normal. The uptrend wave structure suggests it could have the potential to turn into something larger. There are two levels to watch heading into the end of the week: SPX 2102 and SPX 2085. Should the SPX drop below 2102 then we could be looking at five waves up from the SPX 1981 downtrend low. Should the SPX drop below 2085 then we will have five waves up from the SPX 1981 downtrend low. So far, this week does not look like a Minute iii of Minor 3 is in progress. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2120 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum dropped to below neutral after hitting overbought earlier in the day. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market