Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: new highs again, DOW +15

Overnight the Asian markets finished mixed. Europe opened higher but lost 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight, but the market opened one point below yesterday’s SPX 2115 close. In the opening minutes the market dipped to SPX 2111, then turned higher. At 10am New home sales were reported unchanged at 481k. The market made a new high at SPX 2120 by 1:30. Then it started to pullback. The pullback hit SPX 2110 around 3pm, then the market bounced to close at 2114.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.10%. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude rose $1.50, Gold added $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims, the CPI, and Durable goods orders at 8:30, then the FHFA index at 9am.

The market opened one point lower today, dipped a bit lower, then rallied to a new high at SPX 2120. After that the market had its first notable pullback since Friday’s low at SPX 2085. While a 10 point pullback after a 35 point rally looks quite normal. The uptrend wave structure suggests it could have the potential to turn into something larger. There are two levels to watch heading into the end of the week: SPX 2102 and SPX 2085. Should the SPX drop below 2102 then we could be looking at five waves up from the SPX 1981 downtrend low. Should the SPX drop below 2085 then we will have five waves up from the SPX 1981 downtrend low. So far, this week does not look like a Minute iii of Minor 3 is in progress. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2120 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum dropped to below neutral after hitting overbought earlier in the day. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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122 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. lunker1 says:

    Nice test and bounce from the 2005 support area

  2. sibyn says:

    close today at 2097?
    Everything goes according to my plan.

  3. sloop says:

    this pullback seems done?

  4. Currencies getting hammered pretty much across the board relative to the USD today. Euro leading the charge down the slope. Wondering if this is anticipating something out of Euroville tomorrow or more to do with the wage inflation that was reported in the U.S. today (which would be hawkish for rates and the USD). Certainly put the wind behind the DAX.

  5. Ugly Boys and lovely girls; pl. don’t blame me for not warning you.

  6. JeffMilano says:

    According to my calculation should reach a high on 3/7/2015. Start a descend from there.

  7. At yesterday’s high of 2119.59 M5 of PIII = M1 of PIII x 63.65%. Not saying this is the case, just exposing the relationship. Can realistically only see 5 waves up from 1980.90 by having a very short wave 1. If 2119.59 is significant I lean toward it being the top of a 3rd wave from 1980.90 meaning 3 would shorter than 1.

  8. Tony, any reason why W2 could have been an irregular flat? This count also indicates that W3 is longer than W1. It also fits will with the 2 target zone I’ve been tracking and also aligns with ES wave count.
    Feb 12th chart:

    W5 (Possible targets)
    • For Option 1: W5 = W1 = 2156 (This price targets March 20th OPEX per TTL)
    • For Option 2: W5 = W1 = 2173
    W4 (Possible targets)
    • Option 1: if retrace is 2xW2 say 0.4 Fib, then 2086 (34 pts, near 2085 Pivot)
    • Option 2: but if a 0.2 Fib similar to W2, then 2103 (17 pts)
    W3 (83 pts) subdivision
    • w5 = 2119.59 (34 pts, near 1.0 Fib)
    • w4 = 2085.44 (16 pts, near 0.25 Fib)
    • w3 = 2101.3 (59 pts, near 1.667 Fib)
    • w2 = 2041.88 (31 pts, near 0.887 Fib)
    • w1 = 2072.4 (36 pts)
    W2 (Irregular Flat, 15 pts, near 0.2 Fib) subdivision
    • a = 2039.45
    • b = 2054.74 (15 pts, near 1.25 Fib)
    • c = 2036.72 (18 pts, near 1.5 Fib)
    W1 (71 pts) subdivision
    • w5 = 2051.7 (24 pts)
    • w4 = 2027.6 (13 pts, near 0.25 Fib)
    • w3 = 2040.41 (50 pts, near 1.667 Fib)
    • w2 = 1990.81 (19 pts, near 0.667 Fib)
    • w1 = 2010.7 (29 pts)
    Major 4 = 1980.9

  9. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Tony is the RUT in the same wave structure as the SPX? ? IF so what do you see the range of where Primary 3 tops out for the RUT??


  10. jeffbalin says:

    It is looking very shaky, like the uptrend from 1980 could be over like Tony says. The action is lousy for a 3. Waiting for breaks of Tonys 2102, 2085 lines in the sand and Fiona’s 10ma, but I’m exiting longs, taking a quick break, then back in, direction TBD. So, I guess, maybe int 1 could be over, which does seem too short. Maybe minor 1 of int 1 over? Target correction might be Page’s 2050-2060 range

  11. fishonhook says:

    Looks like Daneric has given up on his many catastrophic bearish counts and is going with Tony’s count now.

  12. hello everyone, hello Mr Caldaro,
    Does anyone believe that we will have a consolidation soon? All indices are very bullish but too quickly and i think we need some consolidation.
    many thanks
    Best regards

  13. tommyboys says:

    Macke on fear mongering – love it – and quite entertaining as well🙂—embrace-it-133258624.html

  14. chrisk44342 says:

    Sorry for the voice. Winter weather finally took its toll on me

  15. lunker1 says:

    test of 2010 support. Next S 2005/6. 1/2/4 hr candle close below 2005 are my stops for day/swing trades.

  16. rabbittrader1 says:

    Looks to me like we should now start ten weeks in a generally upward move to May 10th SPX with a target of 2190 to 2200 or so. Followed by a correction into September (not too big),then a long wave 3 up (followed by a 4 and 5) .into May 2016 to Tony’s 2530 to 2630 SPX for the top of Primary III Then, after a Primary IV into Sept, a Primary V into May 2017 at 2761 SPX. R.

  17. soulsurfer says:

    thanks tony!!

    Looking at the WLSH for a change, as it’s always good to “look around”, it suggests more upside ahead; both from a wave-count perspective, as well as how the TIs are set up (e.g. no – div even on the daily RSI5; which is not necessary but most often the case):

  18. Gap and go tomorrow, bulls will prevail. As always

  19. ABchart says:

    Thanks Tony and all.

    New update:

  20. fionamargaret says:

    Thanks Tony and all…remember end of month (probably tomorrow).

  21. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Talk about Cults, how many AAPL charts posted tonight. Spooky! Here’s another.🙂

  22. bhupal777 says:

    Thanks Tony,
    $CYBR downtrend must have started in the last 1 hour of trading. All the gains of the whole day vanished in the last half hour. Tomorrow or Friday it might break down the H&S pattern. This might even turn out as a great shorting stock.

  23. travis01 says:

    Thanks TC. For what it’s worth, I also picked something close by for a short term turn point at 2017ish but did so completely based on vix action. Probably just lucky on my part that we matched up🙂

  24. Tony C: Thanks for the comprehensive weekend update which I still refer back to when I read your weekday posts.
    The daily $NYAD has cleared one resistance level after another on it’s way to new highs today. It’s +333 today is pretty decent considering it was a slightly down day in the price indexes. The weekly $NYAD has decisively risen above the potential H &S top which turned into more of a potential triple top that looked to have been building in the late June 2014 to early Jan 2015 period. These are real positives for the market. The current uptrend does seem to be teetering quite a bit, but if the A-D line (and it’s derivative McOs and SI Indexes) can keep strengthening, then the Minute 3 of Minor 3 scenario will prove valid, implying significantly higher prices for the $SPX, etc. I also want to see the $RUT continue with it’s strengthening. I am still an investor in select mid-cap mutual funds rather than in small caps, however.$NYAD

    The McClellan Oscillator has been fluctuating between about -10 and + 40 since mid-January 2015. Thus it reflects he fact that the A-D line has trended towards being positive without exploding on the upside. This has resulted in a steady uptrend for the Summation Index.$NYA&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p83733137120

    • While the cumulative daily NYSE A-D line ($NYAD) actually does look like a steeply rising chart, there have been only “several” days with a plurality between +1500 and +2000 in the $NYAD during the last 6 weeks, and I only recall one day above +2000 in that time period. By the nature of the way the McOs is constructed, it takes very high plurality days in the $NYAD to drive the McOs into the 50-100 range. But any positive reading in the McOs moves the SI higher by the amount of the daily McOs value.

  25. I case anyone is wondering, AAPL’s whipping today contributed a total of -25 pts on NDX…. just think about how many of the 107 NDX stocks have to rally to offset AAPL’s whipping alone.

  26. HI,Tony,in the Dow wave 5 of PIII = 1,,68% of wave 1 at 19k,correct?thanks

    it could be a pullback to 2000/07 trendline

  27. bouraq says:

    Today’s post:

  28. Caldaro found this from 2013 . is it possible in 2015 we are in the same count? or am I reading it wrong?

  29. I believe CN was looking for a top at 2124. Smart guy, Maybe he is on to something.

    Be carful everyone. Definitely a big boys market.

  30. bhuggs52 says:

    Much thanks, Tony. I was reading five waves up from the wave 2 low at 2041 on your 60 minute SPX chart. If that were somehow the case, then are we possibly in Wave 4? With an approximate 30-pt correction in store?

  31. 56rambler says:

    Thank you, Mr C!

    This sentence refers to scenario 3 – “So far, this week does not look like a Minute iii of Minor 3 is in progress” … Does that suggest scenario 1 is in play and are you adjusting the probabilities higher?


    • tony caldaro says:

      have not yet
      but will if we drop below 2102

      • 56rambler says:

        Mr C,

        Scenario 1 means that Minor 3 will be completed with this uptrend – but that means two more waves before Intermediate 1 is completed, right? And a bunch more waves before Major 5 / Primary 3 are completed?


        • tony caldaro says:

          there were three possible ways of counting this pattern.
          First, this fifth wave up will end this uptrend. Second, this fifth wave up will complete Minor wave 1 of this uptrend. Third, this fifth wave up is actually Minute wave iii of Minor 3 for this uptrend.

          • hkloon says:

            Hi Tony,
            your quote here “So far, this week does not look like a Minute iii of Minor 3 is in progress”, does this mean this could be minor wave 1 only or this is still in minute wave i of Minor 3? Because earlier you did mention this may form a larger upward wave pattern… thank you….

          • tony caldaro says:

            too early to tell, it may just be a small first wave

  32. hrmny358 says:

    Do you mean 2041 should SPX drop below 2102?

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