Monday update

SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW -24

Overnight the Asian markets finished mixed. Europe opened higher and gained 0.5%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened four points below Friday’s SPX 2110 close. By 10am the SPX had hit 2103 and then tried to rally. Also at 10am Existing home sales were reported lower: 4.82mn v 5.04mn. Around 1:30 the SPX hit 2109 and then started to pullback. At 3pm the SPX hit 2103 again, and then rallied to finish the day unchanged at 2110.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.10%. Bonds gained 19 ticks, Crude dropped $1.60, Gold added $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: Case-Shiller at 9am, then Consumer confidence and FED chair Yellen testifies before the Senate at 10am.

The market opened 4 points lower today. Then spent the rest of the day between +3 and -3 points of the opening level until the close. Clearly a consolidation day after Friday’s big rally. While many awaited the Greek gov’t submitting its letter to the EU today. The submission was put off until tomorrow as details were discussed with EU members. Friday’s optimism was clearly subdued today. Today’s narrow trading range did nothing to alter the count(s) posted over the weekend. Starting tomorrow FED chair Yellen reports the state of the economy and monetary policy to Congress. These reports are always interesting. Short term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2111 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum declined during the day and ended above just neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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74 Responses to Monday update

  1. scottycj1 says:

    One of my long standing targets was Dow 18225……………………………

  2. simpleiam says:

    If what Chu is saying is correct, (CNBC, who knows) then I’m watching this carefully. 5 stocks carrying the large majority of Nasdaq gains? That’s not encouraging, although, stocks in general can continue higher for a long time. Could be the first of a number of volleys fired.

  3. H D says:

    Lunker, Did you see em? very punctual.

  4. fotis2 says:

    Geez right on cue hey I think I’m gonna build myself a Yellendicator … 🙂 Have no fear Auntie is here…

  5. purplember says:

    watching Yellen talk on cnbc is like getting a swift kick in the ***** twice. my gosh could she be any more boring.

  6. buddyglove says:

    Adding leverage here to gold positions @ spot 1193.87… Good tech picture and reversal signatures.
    Aimho and good health luck to all.

  7. scottycj1 says:

    If the Dow joins the SPX and Naz in the red…..likely to get a sell signal in my Algo.
    Also a sign leadership is waning. Those waiting for 2140 might have to wait for awhile.

    • fishonhook says:

      I wouldn’t make any predictions until we see what comes out of the mouth of a matronly old lady, who never worked outside of ivory towers in her life. The latest in the line of the Greenspan clan, not because they all share the same religion, but because they all share the sense of omnipotence of the Fed to divert the business cycle. The fact that the first one failed so abysmally does not seem to have had any effect on the confidence of the subsequent two.

  8. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Monday Tested WPP @ 210.43 ~ WR1/R2 @ 211.43 & 212.04
    GL All

  9. blackjak100 says:

    Carter Worth, who’s been wrong of late (which means he will be right eventually), agrees with my P4 target. Again, looking for this to begin 1st in April possibly which means P3 will be 1.618*P1 in time.

  10. fotis2 says:

    Sideways for $/yen small wedge break to upside 19.090 and light crude testing 48.00 must get support there otherwise I close and flip. Unless we get a curve ball from the Greek issue and Auntie Yellen looks like one more leg up being the most probable for the SP .No guarantees as usual and I have to everyday remind myself to let the Market force my trades instead of the other way round.. GL and eyes open.

  11. rabbittrader1 says:

    Targets: Gold ,below $1000,by early April. SPX , to hit 2190 by MAY 4th. WTI Crude Oil $60 /barrel by March 30th. World sugar, below 10 cents before July. March Wheat ,in the low 400,s before end of March expiration. . Gold, after bottoming below around $960 will be a great buy into Early Sept as it moves to $1500 per ounce. After that ,another DROP.. STAY WARM. R.

  12. lunker1 says:

    30/60/120 min candles all closed 2105+

  13. great update.

    peter might be right, but all this GREED is making me worry.

    There is so much bearish ness out there right now, its almost bullish, if you know what I mean.

    this guy from OZ has accurate FEAR GREED INDICATOR here ==>

    It looks like its all GREED, and that has made the market go down, several weeks later.

    I know 99% of people are bearish in here….right? and the world is going to end tomorrow, but I think it will be all about YELLEN this week. And the Bullshit that comes out of her month. Cant wait. LOL

  14. bhupal777 says:

    Thanks Tony. Agree. Consolidation day. Bears are inferring too much out of today’s action.
    Stocks like FB, TWTR, AMZN just taking some breath at resistance lines. CYBR is down 16% because it is up 70% in just couple of weeks. If this comes down to 40 and can’t hold that support then my stop will be hit and makes 0.5% dent to my account.
    Good luck all.

  15. stormchaser80 says:

    Things look toppy. Looking for a change in trend in equities, lower. Prices diverging with treasury yield since middle of last week, and oil seems to be leading lower. Yellen/Greece could trigger tomorrow?

    • IAWT says:

      Market wants to go higher…..dont think anything more than 10 lower is coming until 2130, but would not be surprised to see 2160 before 10+ lower.

    • bhupal777 says:

      That is called wall of worry. Go back to 2010 and count how many wall of worries have been feed to this bull market. If this happens to be the top then the stops will be hit and happy to turn bearish and short the market. No evidence yet and predictions will not make money. Trend following does. If you are consistently able to predict turning points then you have an edge and you must/should be making lot of money.

    • lunker1 says:

      What does things look toppy mean?

      Price broke support? No.
      Negative divergence? No.

      Daily MACD Histogram shows uptrend strength.

  16. maxmax12 says:

    Thoroughly enjoy going through your various counts especially the stock section. Would love to see any of the following stocks make it’s way there, Tony:
    Spwr, BBY, Yelp, FEYE, Wynn, TNP

    Great site!

  17. soulsurfer says:

    Thanks Tony! Nice close today. looks like a flat today, which finished: 2111-2103-2109-2103; maybe that was micro 2 of minute iii!?

  18. bhuggs52 says:

    Thanks Tony. Went long at the final dip before the close today, %10 in on UPRO, with a 5% trailing stop. Do I sound like I know what I’m doing? I’m reading a book, actually, about position sizing and trailing stops. Anyway, have to figure with Yellen giving things a bump in the next two days, and the technicals in favor of a further near-term ATH, I might make like $$, but not $$$. Have to get the tootsies in at some point.

  19. bouraq says:


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