Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: new highs, DOW +28

Over the extended weekend the Asian markets gained 0.3%, and Europe lost 0.2%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 the NY FED was reported lower: 7.8 v 9.9. The market opened two points below Friday’s SPX 2097 close, then declined to 2090 in the first 15 minutes. After that it started to work its way higher. At 10am the NAHB index was reported lower: 55 v 57. The market made new highs at SPX 2101 by 1:30. Then it pulled back to SPX 2096, just before a 2100 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW Were +0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.05%. Bonds lost 29 ticks, Crude gained 30 cents, Gold dropped $20, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: Housing starts, Building permits and the PPI at 8:30; Industrial production (est. +0.2%) at 9:15; the FOMC minutes at 2pm; then a speech from FED governor Powell at 5pm.

The market opened slightly lower today, dipped to SPX 2090, then rallied to a new high at 2101. We continue to count five waves up from the recent SPX 2042 low. The market continues to act like it is in the third wave up for this uptrend from SPX 1981: 2072-2042-2101 thus far. There is still a short term negative divergence building, so this market could experience a, larger than 7 point, pullback at any time. Lots of economic news tomorrow, including the sometimes volatile FOMC minutes. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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63 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. chrisk44342 says:

    In the last minutes of the hourly bar, the ES climbed just back above trendline that had been violated prior to fed news. Nice save! But market still needs hourly close above 2100 to fully embolden bullish traders.

  2. fotis2 says:

    Gold up, $/yen down, Crude down, round and round it goes where it stops noone knows I thought I Was but now I Know I am in the …….Twilight Zone

  3. rabbittrader1 says:

    Fed meeting in Jan: The word “patience” left in. Probably no rate increase UNTIL SEPT. (IF THEN ) THESE ARE RABBITS WORDS. . ” No sellin’ with Yellen” (NYSE slogan). R

    • jrtrader25 says:

      Yes we should get a crazy melt up in everything except the dollar going into summer. Can it be really that easy? Maybe.

      • rabbittrader1 says:

        Melt-up into MAY 2nd at 2190 SPX , then correction until Sept.Then All Hell breaks loose on the UPSIDE into late SEPT. 2017 , when we reach 2761 SPX. !! GOD MADE green APPLES, like my grandmother used to say.. R

  4. Page says:

    Good news from Fed. Gold and Miners will shoot much higher.

  5. fotis2 says:

    Got a cautionary email from my broker on any open positions on Greek index as if no agreement by 28Feb apparently back to drachma could be nothing but brokers at times do have the heads up…

  6. fishonhook says:

    There was a beautiful rising wedge on S and P one hour that broke and then was pushed right back into the wedge. No correction will be tolerated.
    If all bearish patterns resolve bullishly, I cannot short, and I cannot buy up here. So sit on hands and wait.

  7. rabbittrader1 says:

    astrofib: Yes we should get a turn up here soon in GOLD, but ONLY to the $ 1220 area, before turning lower. My target remains $960 with an expected date of March 27th. R.

  8. fotis2 says:

    Can’t see anything standing out consolidating maybe?Although bellow 2092 one could possibly argue HS .

  9. torehund says:

    Lots of nanos popping..

  10. lunker1 says:

    SPX working off overbought on the 60 minute with not much price damage. Seems bullish.

  11. sibyn says:

    RCH target hit 2092, now 2097 then 2085.

  12. mjtplayer says:

    Boring markets continue, school vacation week for many and Monday’s holiday, plus Chinese New Year tomorrow – Asian markets will be very quite and China closed. The trend of super-light volume and little market movement continues, probably won’t get any kind of normal volume and participation till next week. Zzzz….

  13. the bull kids are now becoming arrogant that papa banker has their back.
    the time may be near they get some discipline

  14. Lee X says:

    Morn Tony

    Where’d everybody go ?

  15. fotis2 says:

    Thanks Tony feels a bit like Twilight Zone…$/yen descending triangle possible target 118.300 break and hourly close above 119.400 negates.Crude still looks bullish formed a IHS on hourly target 57.00.GL and dont put stops too tight 🙂

  16. torehund says:


    if the Whole structure X then a large X, then 10 000 is possible. Nobody seems to take notice.

  17. fishonhook says:

    Looks like a morgue in here.

    The only fly in the ointment is this


    With such a strong finish, I would have expected the VIX down not up a good chunk.

  18. bhupal777 says:

    Thanks Tony. So far only 9 responses?? Bears getting frustrated everyday as they are looking for the never realized top and bulls are getting bored with everyday rise in the markets??
    Just enormous liquidity by all most every CB. Why fight the big players, just ride the trend until it lasts. It is very simple. When 200 day don’t hold it will tell you that markets have topped. Don’t predict the tops or bottoms.

    Look at the security software stocks (VIPS, CYBR, FEYE etc…). Nobody knows if they are in fake rally or just started their mega move like how Biomedical sector stocks started their mega move couple of years back. So just ride the trend with good stop loss.

    • travis01 says:

      I guess you got it beat then…just too simple.

    • robnaardin says:

      “Thanks Tony. So far only 9 responses?? Bears getting frustrated everyday as they are looking for the never realized top and bulls are getting bored with everyday rise in the markets??”

      Yawn, Close above 2075 convinced me, it’s a trend and not a dud wave.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Thanks Gerald.

    • bhupal777 says:

      Gold and Silver are at crucial juncture. If they stabilize tomorrow and show some strength then it will be a good long opportunity. Otherwise I am expecting big down move coming.

      • rabbittrader1 says:

        Do not be fooled in here , A move to 1220 gold or so is quite expected. Look for further correction, DOWN after that. A move above 1225 would be worrisome, but ain’t gonna happen . Look for $960 by late March. IMVHO. Rabbit.

  19. bouraq says:

    Today’s blog post:

  20. JD C. says:

    It would not surprise me if upper median lines don’t hold, considering Tony’s spx count.
    Long term trend line chart has some room to run. It just seems like, if this is major 5 of PIII, this late in PIII that trend lines would hold. Price can respect upper trend line and inch it’s way higher, or just break it. I’m long with low stops in place, but have cashed in some spy call options and such.

  21. alexhartley1 says:

    I believe tomorrow will be a down day – perhaps minute 4 of minor 3 of Intermediate 1 of Major 5 of PIII (with a minute 5 to follow by Thursday and to the end of OPEX week.

    Having said that if PIII was to last into 2016 it may have to be an even smaller set of waves (micro 4 of minute 1 of minor 1 of intermediate 1 of Major 5.

    Does that makes sense?

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