Thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap up and go Thursday, DOW +110

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.9%. US index futures were higher overnight on a peace treaty in the Ukraine. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 304k v 274k, and Retail sales were lower: -0.8% v -0.9%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2077 and continued to rally. The market had closed at SPX 2069 yesterday. At 10am Business inventories were reported higher: +0.1% v +0.2%. Just past 10am the SPX hit 2083, pulled back to 2078 by 11:30, then started to move higher. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2089, then dipped to end at 2088.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.80 and the NDX/NAZ were +1.20%. Bonds gained 1 tick, Crude gained $2.35, Gold added $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises to the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance now at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: Export/Import prices at 8:30, then Consumer sentiment at 10am.

The market gapped up at the open for the second time this week. The gap opening took the market over the OEW 2070 pivot range in the opening minutes for the first time since late-December. This uptrend, after getting a bit sloppy around the mid-2000’s, is again impulsing nicely. We noted yesterday the five waves up from Monday’s SPX 2042. While we await an all time new high, we are going to tentatively label the SPX 2072 high as Minor 1 and the SPX 2042 low as Minor 2. Minor wave 3 should be currently underway from the low. SPX 2042 continues to remain the go or no go level for this uptrend. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day extremely overbought. Best to your Friday trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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156 Responses to Thursday update

  1. buddyglove says:

    All time highs pull like magnets as usual, and EU meeting Monday, so we expect more bullish comments at the weekend….a gap up Tuesday in US mkts away from the long congestion area, would be extremely bullish indeed. imho…Good weekend all.

  2. mjtplayer says:

    Another “holiday high” for the markets, today the SPY is easily on track for it’s single lightest volume day of the year and lightest week or the year – as we’re pushing into ATH’s

    No holiday here in Boston, getting another 12 – 16 inches of relentless snow Sunday and temps are bone chilling, wind chill this morning was a balmy -12

  3. Dex T says:

    Wave 5 blowoff top. The bull market will finally be over later this year after a Spring runup.

    This will be one May where you will really want to analyze your positions- sell and go away!

  4. johnnymagicmoney says:

    I went long this morning with TNA…………..this of course is sign two that a correction is going to occur soon……………..first Rabbit, then me……………… don’t commit newbie cause then that would be the third nail in a precarious coffin. And dont go short BG. Then I would be doomed for sure.

  5. For the record I’m holding short over this 3 day weekend, if anything could ever go wrong it would be over a 3 day weekend at the top of the market that way bears have been destroyed and bulls are still in and all excited looking for further upside. If market was ever likely to crash it will be Tuesday on news or event. I don’t mean to be such a debbie downer or a pessimist but when this baby falls its gonna fall hard and its gonna screw the majority. Best of Luck.

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