Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW -7

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.2% as well. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened four points below yesterday’s SPX 2069 close. In the opening minutes the SPX dipped to 2064, then bounced to 2069 by 10am. After dip to SPX 2063 by 10:30 the market hit 2070 by 11am, before heading lower again. Around 1pm the SPX hit 2058 and then started to rally. In the last hour of trading the SPX hit 2073, dipped to 2066, then ended at 2069.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.35%. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude slid 65 cents, Gold dropped $14, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims and Retail sales at 8:30, with Business inventories at 10am.

The market opened lower today, went into a trading range until 11am. Took out the lows of the day around 1pm, then took out the highs for the day around 3:30. The net result was pretty much unchanged. With today’s pullback, and then rally, we can count five waves up from Monday’s SPX 2042 low: 2058-2049-2071-2058-2073. While we continue to expect all time new highs soon. We still need to keep an eye on at that SPX 2042 level. Short term support is now at SPX 2058 and SPX 2049, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum declined to neutral during today’s pullback, then ended just under overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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224 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. GYN LAB says:

    How about completing Minor 1 here? 1980-2010-1990-2072-2042-2088
    Neg div across various timeframes (15m, 1h, 4h)

  2. fishonhook says:

    Shorted a bit here. Will hold over-night (now watch the futures go up another 100 points)

  3. torehund says:
    did a count here, and as always a weekly macd far below zero is Dangerous..Whats positive: the long abc on the macd and (its finished), at least a D should (judged by the huge abc complex) bode for a large wave up….macd has just started to hoock up🙂

  4. H D says:

    CN- much respect amigo.

    • blackjak100 says:

      Is his twitter feed going dead? I thought he was just leaving here. I hope it’s not due the Big Weekly Down not panning out.

  5. mjtplayer says:

    No volume today, yet again. This will be the lightest volume week of the year – by a long shot.

    Not a good sign to approach ATH and resistance with no volume, tells me we could test the highs and make incremental HH’s, but fail and turn lower for a pullback. No volume = no energy/participation to breakout

    • I see something similar with volatility etfs stuck at lower level since early today, a lot of support for them and at not even close to establish LL, not a panic move out of volatility and into the bullish etfs. treasuries are puzzling for now, not selling off either, might have to pull a chart of SPX and TLT side by side and look at last top (2093) on SPX. Gut feeling leaning bearish but only small position here, so will wait and see. GL.

      • mjtplayer says:

        Holiday Monday and next week is school vacation, volume should remain low and volatility suppressed through the end of next week. Even if the VIX remains flat over the next week or so, hanging around this 15 – 16 area, the long VIX ETF’s should decay a bit, their mostly rolled into the March contract now – about 85%.

    • tommyboys says:

      NAZ volume sharply higher today than yesterday and NYSE is similar to yesterday so far

  6. llerias7 says:

    Tony, following your EW count we are finishing minor 1 of Int. I (M5) or at the present we are in a middle of minor 3? (Int.I-M5).
    Thank you.

  7. rabbittrader1 says:

    imanewbetrader: FYI I am NOT a day trader. When I said (a couple weeks ago that the SPX would go to 2190 by May 2 ,and I .reiterated today, I did not say it would go straight up. I think we will touch 2093 ,or almost, then go down for a few days. This will be a great BEAR TRAP! To CN. please don’t leave us ,re-consider after the weekend.. R

  8. All good things come to an end, and my stay here has, for me, been a very good thing. I’ve been here a long time – nearly eight of Tony’s ten years, under various nicknames. But the environment here has become unhealthy to me, and at present is no longer conducive to the cooperation and camaraderie that I once enjoyed here. A bit of trolling, of course, is to be expected, but when it is allowed to be prolonged and personal, it damages us all. Just witness the tone of the last few days by even long time regulars of the blog. I do not excuse myself from indictment either. Trolling poisons us all – even those of us who should know better. For me, it is time to move on.

    For those thinking this about allowing the trolls to win – it is not. They can only win if they continue to be a threat. If the threat cannot be removed, one must remove oneself from the threat.

    Thank you, Tony, for having me and for putting up with me. What drew me to your blog and kept me here so long was the idea you expressed in the little epilogue that you used to write at the end of your daily reports: “You can love yourself, or you can love yourself and all others – It’s a choice.” Perhaps it is time to bring those few words back.

    As rc said, “it’s hard to not care, if you’re somebody who cares.” rc, if I could meet anyone here in person with whom to enjoy a fine meal, a fine wine, and a fine conversation, it would be you, my friend.

    I attach a final gift for all from someone who understands what it means truly to make a good trade. May you all be so blessed as to make just one good trade in your lives. Lord knows I’ve been trying.


    God Bless

    • Im sure you will be back tomorrow… lol… nobody leaves for good, dont let the idiots get you down…

    • uncle10 says:

      Thanks CN for all you have done and do.
      I’m not leaving but I will prolly be posting a lot less for a few reasons. One I don’t think I bring much value to the blog and two, I am finally ready to start doing something else besides sit in front of a computer screen to make money.
      good day and good luck.
      Peace and love to all.

    • gtoptions says:

      Thanks & Good Luck CN

      “He who obtains has little. He who scatters has much.”
- Lao Tzu –

    • tony caldaro says:

      I used to respond to comments by email, that is why you saw the trailer:
      Embrace forgiveness, then
      Love oneself, or love oneself and all others.
      Make the choice.
      MSN considering it spamming and made me stop. Now I have to go to the site to respond to comments.
      Do what is best for you. One has to be comfortable within themselves before they can attempts to helps others.
      be well!

    • fotis2 says:

      Your input will be greatly missed dont know you long CN but you have opened a door of perception for me where I view trading in a completely different light and thankfully(To Wyckoff here) have overcome the urge to hold anyone’s hand or seek aproval for my trades.My goal is to close the day in profit following my rules on a system and based on my view on the Market according to what the price is or isn’t doing and that my friend I learned from you.

      • spindoc73 says:

        just curious tony if you interpret the blog dynamics here as consistent with the heart of a huge wave 3 up in a bull? it seems more logical that at important turns, rather than during thrusts, we would expect this type of capitulation. market feels sketchy and weak but maybe it’s a forked tongue spellbinder.

    • mjtplayer says:

      Don’t let trolls or negative comments get you down, just ignore them and have thick skin – nothing should ever be taken personally. Hope to see you back…

    • rc1269 says:

      Peace CN
      hope you make your dough and more importantly obtain and maintain happiness
      catch you around the bend on the ol’ information superhighway

    • Nky says:

      CN, being a celebrity poster sucks, isn’t it LOL
      some can fell free posting tones of market-irrelevant useless comments every day & nobody bothers, while any words from CN have be under constant scrutiny so that we all be reminded he is not perfect after all:-)
      Thanks CN, for all you’ve shared with us so generously & I hope to see you back, whenever you feel like to.

    • CB says:

      CN, I hope that an occasional hug or two from HD and Lee will be enough for you to reconsider. (Go ahead and hug it out, guys 🙂 I agree with Mjt that “nothing should ever be taken personally (the market never does anything personal either , right ? People here evaluate market statements that are made on the blog, and not personal characteristics of posters. That should be treated as such without veering into personal territory (like calling someone a T***, if they happen to ask for a clarification, for instance). It’s only reasonable to expect that substantive comments should be answered substantively , and not by calling anyone names.
      I don’t see anything that would limit your free expression on this blog. In fact others’ posts have been deleted several times to accommodate you. So why not take advantage of this opportunity to help others in whatever way you deem appropriate . You are a big boy, CN, so I hope you will be back to help all your readers & friends on this blog. GL w/ your trading.

    • jeffbalin says:

      You have a big heart CN, catch you in other places.

  9. kvilia says:

    Any sign of minor 2 starting if we are in Major 5? Looking into adding to my long position once minor 2 completed. It appears the possibility of being in C of 4 are very slim at the moment.

    • gtoptions says:

      +1 With secondary question, Shouldn’t the SPX breakout to new highs before Minor 1 completes? Anyone?

      • Best to give the appearance of a double top to keep the bears believing

        • What Bears? Most have already capitulated, if anyone should be worried its Bulls. Even rabbit is bullish.

          • spindoc73 says:

            short ES at 2081.00. been in/out a half dozen times for little or no gain short and long. folks who have only been long only would perhaps not sense that this is a short-squeeze rally. look at euro markets as well – dax pegging the needle on macd in a way not seen since 00′. it’s either a move on a much larger scale (big as the longs have been saying), or it’s a top of importance. legimate topping pattern for this move in – if it breaks down (higher that is!), i will likely reverse positions but only in futures to avoid overnight vacuum. good luck newbie.

          • Don’t shoot me newbie. I don’t like using the bull/bear term but most people/traders do, I only use the term for their pleasure. I was long overnight and just flip back to short at 2074.75 ES let see how much I can squeeze on a potential decline from here no matter if it is small as long is I cover it in the green is all I care about.

  10. With some question marks over the retail sales numbers the Dollar is finally giving some back across the board (ironically except for the Ruble). Biggest daily rally in the Yen since June 2013.

  11. Post 2 of 3: While some find no value in volume, in my opinion, I think I do. I track 50 day average volume, and day to day volume. If price does something remarkable or trades to level to which I have assigned some elevated importance, then I note whether volume is higher/lower than average, and more importantly, to me, whether volume was higher/lower than the prior day. In my opinion, I am often able to see the current state of liquidity from tracking volume and price this way – who’s buying, who’s selling, who’s not doing anything at all. Technical analysis works on highly liquid, freely traded markets. By trying to maintain some notion for myself of what represents average liquidity, and hence above and below average liquidity, I feel I am better able to judge price action for my own purposes than if I were making my judgments with no thought to liquidity at all.

    While some may find no value to tracking volume, that does not mean that some of us should not be allowed to persist in the delusion that that there is still important information to be found there. I do not claim originality for finding volume to be worth tracking. I also pay attention to the treasury market. I doubt I am the only one. I think that I may not be FWIW, there is a 30 year bond auction today – results around 1PM EST.

    • gasman88 says:

      As they say, it’s not over until it’s over, but COMP has already broken out it feels like this market is coiling up to go higher. Sure there is still hope for a double top in SPX or even a breakout and a reversal, but it’s advantage bulls at the moment.

    • magnus1234 says:

      CN, it almost all about the volume. Market profiles and Waves is my tools.

  12. lunker1 says:

    Tony do you have a chart of WROC signals? what’s the average percentage gain? Are WROC uptrends Shorter/longer/the same as non? TY

  13. Post 1 of 3: I watch $SPX, $NDX, $INDU, $TRAN, $UTIL, and $RUT. I put my opinion together from a comprehensive view I construct of these indices. Perhaps some find it helpful to go out looking for whatever market might be supporting their current view that day, but I have always just stuck consistently with those six indices to put together an idea as to what is, in my opinion, more or less likely to occur, in this case, over the next 3 months to two years. The most important of these on their own, for my purposes, are the $SPX/$INDU & the $UTIL. But as important is the comprehensive view I try to make of them.

    As most of you know, I also swing trade trying to capture the swings that takes a few days to a few weeks to play out, and I also day trade. Obviously I am often, at any given moment, trading contrary positions in the same instrument, e.g. I might be short ES as a position trade, long ES on a swing trade, and in and out of the ES on both sides of the market as I day trade, Longer term, I watch the $INDU and $SPX when they trade at or near prior supply/demand shifts, e.g. &INDU 17951 & 18043, $SPX 2073, 2086, 2094. My long term view will not change for me without an $SPX close at new ATH. That is my opinion, and while we are not entitled to much, I assume that we are still entitled to hold opinions of our own making.

    • fishonhook says:

      “My long term view will not change for me without an $SPX close at new ATH”
      That being what? The top is in?

    • ashram says:

      When SPX closes above 2093.55, how will that affect your forcefully propounded theory that a B leg (December 29) cannot occur at a new high?

      • Nky says:

        Hi Ashram, to be fair, from EW perspective, that Dec high doesn’t have to be a B wave even if SPX makes ATH soon, indeed, it can be many different things, such is the nature of the beast we call EW:-) Personally, here is I see how it might be playing out but of course I’d be wrong;-)

  14. soulsurfer says:

    COMPQ broke above December high.
    SPX, NDX, WLSH broke out of their triangles over the past few days (SPX, WLSH already last Thursday, NDX on Tuesday) and backtested their triangles descending top line successfully after that and took off. Last hurdle for Bulls is INDU 17,920.
    The descending triangle trendline was the short term bull/bear line. With now the short term also up while , medium, and long term remained up, it’s hard to be bearish.
    As promised last week, will post price targets today.

  15. fishonhook says:

    can’t see much solace for the technical bearish case though I am looking hard. Unless this is some sort of 5th wave

    The VIX has broken down out of the triangle Fiona mentioned$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p78917566891&a=228313176

    Usually a flag or triangle breaks to the direction is started. In this case a move up. Another case of a bearish set-up that gets reversed with CB news/intervention. Like Tony’s Failed P4 counts, all failed on CB intervention over night (Japan and China) making TA even less reliable than it usually is!

    • ashram says:

      On 2/6, SPX had a false breakout above 2064. False breakouts typically result in downward accelerations, yet there was just a 12 hour/31 point/33% pullback prior to a resumption of the advance. That was the kiss of death. Anyone shorting since then has not been paying attention to the price action.

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