Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: turnaround Tuesday gap up opening, DOW +140

After the close yesterday FED governor Powell’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20150209a.htm. Overnight the Asian markets were mixed. Europe opened higher and gained 0.5%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up at the open to SPX 2056. The SPX had closed at 2047 yesterday. In the opening minutes the market ticked up to SPX 2058, then pulled back to 2049 by 10am. At 10am Wholesale inventories were reported marginally higher: +0.1% v +0.8%. After that pullback the market moved even higher. Around 3:30 the SPX hit 2071, then dipped to close at 2069.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.95%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.40%. Bonds lost 8 ticks, Crude dropped $2.30, Gold slid $7, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: the Budget deficit at 2pm.

The market had another gap up opening today, the sixth of seven trading days this month. The rally stopped first at SPX 2058, dipped to 2049, then went right to the 2070 pivot range. The WROC again did its job, as the SPX is now in a confirmed uptrend. Probabilities now suggest, using WROC statistics again, the market is headed to new highs. There is, however, a much lesser probability suggesting this uptrend is the D wave of a Major wave 4 triangle. This would suggest the uptrend could reverse into a downtrend soon, with support around SPX 2000, to complete wave E. We will place the line in the sand, so to say, at yesterday’s SPX 2042 low. A break below it would suggest a potential E wave is underway. Remaining above it suggests new highs, and probably much higher, shortly. Short term support is now at SPX 2049 and SPX 2042, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum rose, after yesterday’s positive divergence, and hit quite overbought in the afternoon. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

This entry was posted in Updates and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

171 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. ashram says:

    johnnymagicmoney says:
    February 11, 2015 at 2:31 pm
    …if everyone else is eating dog doo doo should I eat dog doo doo….

    If you are speaking literally, it would probably be ill-advised. But if you are employing a metaphor for the stock market, then you must honor the trend even if it offends you.

    • stephenk1980 says:

      If you don’t care about price, then you are obviously not a trader. Price and price action is king and determines profit and loss. Nothing else matters if you are trading to make £. And if you aren’t trading to make £, then it begs the question ‘why?’ There are many more fun things to be doing in life! Start a protest group and get yourself some attractive groupies to have fun with perhaps?

  2. nardobeme says:

    Aw schucks… I guess the CB’s ran out of funds at the close 😉

  3. rc1269 says:

    everyone on the right side of the ship now? good.

  4. stephenk1980 says:

    I’ve decided to take a round-the-world whistle stop tour of the US, Japan and Europe, as all the central bankers deserve to be thanked in person for relentlessly multiplying my captial since December. What amazingly giving human beings they are! Lol.

  5. Low risk spot to buy a few SPY puts here…

  6. simpleiam says:

    Looks like someone keeps striking a match behind her every time she does…

  7. johnnymagicmoney says:

    commodities geting monkey hammered – irrelevant
    durable goods horrible – irrelevant
    China hard landing – irrelevant
    S&P earnings 4th q over q – barely above positive – irrelevant
    European deflation – irrelevant
    Japanese deflation – irrelevant
    consumer spending horrible – irrelevant
    US deflation – irrelevant
    over valued equity market – irrelevant
    possible Greek exit – irrelevant

    Iphone sales – relevant
    lots of part time jobs with no wage growth – relevant

    glad the market is thinking correctly

Comments are closed.