Friday update

SHORT TERM: another choppy session, DOW -61

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 monthly Payrolls were reported higher: 257k v 252k, but Unemployment was reported higher too: 5.7% v 5.6%. The market opened two points above yesterday’s SPX 2063 close, moved up to 2068, then down to 2061, all in the first few minutes. Then it rallied to SPX 2072 by 11am. After S&P downgraded Greece bonds the market pulled back to SPX 2058 by 1:30, then tried to rally again. By 2pm the SPX hit 2066, but it headed lower for the third Friday afternoon in a row. By 3:30 the SPX hit 2050, then bounced too close at 2055.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.55%. Bonds lost 41 ticks (over one point), Crude rallied $1.55, Gold dropped $31, and the USD rallied. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Last night the FED reported a decline in the Monetary base: $4.036tn v $4.139tn. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 46.0% v 45.7%.

The market opened higher today, rose to a new high for the rally at SPX 2072, but could not hold those gains, and pulled back in the afternoon to 2050. We can now count three larger waves up from Monday’s SPX 1981 low, with this pullback being the fourth wave. Or, if the three waves up were part of our triangular Major 4 scenario. Then today’s high could have ended wave D, with a downward wave E to follow to complete Major 4. We’ll cover these scenarios in the weekend update. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probable

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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37 Responses to Friday update

  1. fotis2 says:

    Apologies for being off subject I read Zero Hedge occasionally but am finding to continuosly making a mountain out of a molehill or is it just my imagination?Other publications dealing with the Markets also seem to be either completely wrong or after the effect specialists any suggestions on anything objective and to the point out there?

  2. rabbittrader1 says:

    Nobody cares? what the Rabbit says? Maybe because they do not believe I have been around for1,480 years . Naive people! This time around- for 80 years, (so Far) R

  3. rabbittrader1 says:

    We are in a Fifth wave up, of this overextended B wave ,until late April (very early May) Then the 9.2 year cycle, plus 41 month ,inverted ,STOCK MARKET CYCLES TOP!!! Everything is Streeetcheeed, by the C.B.’s ( It is meant to be that way!!!)

  4. rabbittrader1 says:

    Staying short gold as we are only half way ,or less, on this 3rd wave down of 5 waves of an A then a B then a C. The target remains, as I have said,. UNDER $1,000 When?? Probably ,now as i see it ,LATE APRIL, in the $950’s. I am holding my powder buying gold and silver stocks until then ! Still long CRUDE OIL until April. Short Wheat and now short July Sugar. I did buy some SPXL ,(. premature) but believe we will see SPX 2190 by end of April I decided to invite Taylor Swift to lunch this summer at my Beach Club. Do you think she will come? ( I;ll let you know in July). R..

  5. travis01 says:

    Thanks all. I’m looking for the button on my Etrade page that says “sell at daily peak price”. If anyone knows where it’s located please let me know. 🙂. Have a good w/e. It’s my twins’ 1st bday.

  6. great tweets in after h

  7. blackjak100 says:

    Tough to be bullish right here – 5 waves either complete or still need final 5th wave. Depth of pull back should tell us which one is correct next week. Cheers!

  8. 56rambler says:

    Thanks Mr. Caldaro,

    Looking forward to your weekend review!

  9. idal75 says:

    Gap up monday…

  10. Page says:

    Thanks Tony. Have Great Weekend.

    Next Week:
    SPX/Oil will go lower but Gold/Miners will go higher.

  11. simpleiam says:

    Thanks Tony! Quite a ride. I think it’s treacherous to try and make judgments regarding market direction/behavior on most any Friday. Anxiously awaiting Sat. morning java and WU!

    • soulsurfer says:

      agree, Friday’s do not often provide any clarity but leave the market hanging in suspense, because it be otherwise too easy to position for Monday…

  12. llerias7 says:

    My take: Yellen speech might be the turnaround pivot on Feb 25th. Until then probably another retest of the OEW1973 pivot (E-wave?)!

  13. fotis2 says:

    Thanks Tony and there has been some excellent calls lately from various contributors on site well done guys and gals and keep it up!! GL for Monday and have a lovely weekend all.

  14. JW says:

    Weekly semiconductors ETF XSD closed at an ATH

  15. filipozze says:

    The same pattern on usd/yen, Wave D complete today. Up today but dynamic resistance still intact…maybe New wave E down and S&P will follow

  16. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    DJI/RUT/NYA Weekly Bullish Engulfing.
    Enjoy Your Weekend

    • GTO, This weeks candle body needs to engulf the prior weeks candle body for it to qualify as an engulfing candle pattern that did not happen.

      • gtoptions says:

        And your right shoulder on RUT HS is too high. Nothing in trading is perfect.😉

        • GTO, respectfully, I’ve only stated or plotted what I have read and learn from my various textbooks.

          Base and Edwards and McGee”….Either shoulder may, in fact, go higher or take more time than the other. Either or both may come up nearly to the level of the head (but not equal it, else no Head-and-Shoulders) or both may fall considerably short of it.”
          ……. The key word in the aforementioned is “nearly.” How near is too near? I guess we can only base this from our own experience and observations. Like you said nothing in trading is perfect.

          Cheers and enjoy your weekend.

      • joecthetruthteller says:

        “Every day I assume every position I have is wrong.
        At the end of the day, the most important thing is how good you are at risk control.”
        – Paul Tudor Jones

  17. Thanks Tony, Happy Friday again from the Peanuts

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