SHORT TERM: another choppy session, DOW -61
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 monthly Payrolls were reported higher: 257k v 252k, but Unemployment was reported higher too: 5.7% v 5.6%. The market opened two points above yesterday’s SPX 2063 close, moved up to 2068, then down to 2061, all in the first few minutes. Then it rallied to SPX 2072 by 11am. After S&P downgraded Greece bonds the market pulled back to SPX 2058 by 1:30, then tried to rally again. By 2pm the SPX hit 2066, but it headed lower for the third Friday afternoon in a row. By 3:30 the SPX hit 2050, then bounced too close at 2055.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.55%. Bonds lost 41 ticks (over one point), Crude rallied $1.55, Gold dropped $31, and the USD rallied. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Last night the FED reported a decline in the Monetary base: $4.036tn v $4.139tn. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 46.0% v 45.7%.
The market opened higher today, rose to a new high for the rally at SPX 2072, but could not hold those gains, and pulled back in the afternoon to 2050. We can now count three larger waves up from Monday’s SPX 1981 low, with this pullback being the fourth wave. Or, if the three waves up were part of our triangular Major 4 scenario. Then today’s high could have ended wave D, with a downward wave E to follow to complete Major 4. We’ll cover these scenarios in the weekend update. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probable
LONG TERM: bull market