Thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +212

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened lower and finished mixed. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 278k v 265k, and the Trade deficit wider: -$46.6bn v -$39.0bn. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2049 and continued to rally. The SPX had closed at 2042 yesterday. At 11am the SPX hit a new high for the rally at 2060. Then after a pullback to SPX 2054 by 1pm the market went into a trading range and then moved higher again. Nearing the close the SPX hit 2064, then dipped to close at 2063.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.90%. Bonds lost 3 tick, Crude rose $2.45, Gold added $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly Payrolls (est. +235K) at 8:30, and Consumer credit at 3pm.

After yesterday’s last hour selloff, on ECB/Greece news, futures continued lower overnight. But turned around when Europe shrugged it off and rebounded after a gap down opening. The US market gapped up, as a result, then rallied beyond yesterday’s pre-selloff high. Then after some sideways activity from 11am to 3pm the market moved higher again. This rally, from Monday’s SPX 1981 low, continues to look impulsive. Short term support is now at SPX 2037 and SPX 2028, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Yesterday’s negative divergence took short term momentum down to neutral, but it reversed to overbought again today. Best to your Payrolls trading tomorrow.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probable

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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205 Responses to Thursday update

  1. Lee X says:

    Nice job jobjas

  2. simpleiam says:

    Too difficult to really judge a market on Friday. Will know better if spx goes HWB, less, or more. Great weekend All!

  3. ill carify that
    1 2 i ii iii iv , I II III IV all overlapping , a new high would be V3 of an extended 3rd
    then 4 and 5 if we are to see 5 waves up to a slight new all time high , labeled 1
    of a much larger wave . OR D which i have some doubts yet it is valid

  4. Hi Tony
    that’s the overlap and questionable 5 waves down from the high today .
    a new high for this move would be 5 overlapping waves ( wave 3 of 3 ? )
    or wave D maybe considered complete ( hence the 5 waves down ,which are sloppy )
    1 2 1 2 i ii iii iv all overlapping as of now .
    Monday is a new day
    have a great weekend

  5. just saying but these are everywhere

  6. 7dayyss says:

    Tony: Any thoughts on rare earth? Will follow commodity bear cycle or on it’s own with the continual explosion in all things electronic? Thank you!

  7. Gees I guess Snoopy, Sally Linus and Woodstock did know something

  8. alexhartley1 says:

    here comes the storm train!

  9. llerias7 says:

    Assuming this is major 5, then we are finishing minor 1 or minute 1 of it (2070pivot)?

  10. uncle10 says:

    it would be fitting to top the day of a great jobs report….
    great weekend all.

  11. 56rambler says:

    Mr. Caldaro,

    Quick question – how do you view this afternoon sell-off – is it impulsive or corrective? I’m not sure i’m interpreting the waves correctly today.

    Many thanks,


  12. Page says:

    Next Week:

    SPX and Oil will go down.
    Gold and Miners will go up.

  13. Hi Tony
    this is appearing to look like an extended third wave from the feb 3rd low .
    it may becoming an ending diagonal yet i have yet to see the overlap for wave 4 .
    1 2 3 4 i ii iii now being iv then v up for 3 ? then higher again ? or wave d .
    to soon to call it .

  14. GYN LAB says:

    My question in the coming days would be if this is wave 2 pullback or C down… hopefully 2019 pivot will resolve this for me next week!

  15. berniebaruch says:

    In the deck chair. Pitched the trading longs. I will let everyone else fight up here over 2060.

  16. Watch those trend lines …. a big move is just around the corner


  17. jrtrader25 says:

    For those following the VIX this week, it looks extremely bullish. With the markets up so much this week the VIX has held on strongly. Maybe the bears have hope after all.

    • mjtplayer says:

      VIX support lies at 16. Today’s low = 16.06

      VXX support lies at $32, I got in this a.m. in the mid $32.50’s

      I think the VIX can rally a bit in the short-term as markets pullback and digest the big move, but I don’t see a larger move higher in the VIX until late Feb and into March.

  18. nardobeme says:

    $RUT is very close to breaking the current trendline to the downside. This leg is over for now… Ah snap… just happened.

  19. simpleiam says:

    Lots of buying into the VIX etf’s. Hmmm.

  20. uncle10 says:

    Our CNN fear greed worked again….😉

    • tommyboys says:

      Unc ..getting close to a turn. Free money on RDCM. Big seller will finish next day or two then BANG up it will go – seen this movie. Just had sweet earnings.

      • uncle10 says:

        hey tb. I will keep my eye on it. I don’t like the market here. im short. a close above 2075 will have me out.

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