Thursday update

SHORT TERM: pullback then rebound, DOW +225

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.6%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.1%. US index futures bounced around overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 265k v 307k. The market opened two points above yesterday’s SPX 2002 close. No gap opening today. After a bounce to SPX 2007 the market dropped to 1993, and then rallied to 2003 by 10am. At 10am Pending home sales were reported lower: -3.7% v +0.8%. The market pulled back to SPX 1989 by 11am, and then started to rally. Around noon the market hit SPX 2005, pulled back to 1998 by 1pm, then moved higher. Around 3:30 the SPX hit 2025, then dipped to close at 2021.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.00%. Bonds lost 12 ticks, Crude added 10 cents, Gold dropped $27, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: Q4 GDP (est. +3.2%) at 8:30, then the Chicago PMI and Consumer sentiment near 10am.

The market opened higher today, then resumed the post-FOMC decline. After hitting SPX 1989, 48 points from the post-FOMC high, the market rebounded to 2025. The rally off that low had small pullbacks along the way. So for now it looks like a counter-trend rally. With the expectation of a downtrend confirmation soon, we would normally expect the downtrend to make an important low next week. Levels to watch for are the three pivots: 1973, 1956 and 1929. Should the market continue to rally from today’s low, we would like to see five waves unfold before expecting new highs. Other than that, a rally from today’s low would be considered just another counter trend advance. Short term support is at SPX is now at the 2019 pivot and SPX 1988/1992, with resistance at SPX 2037 and the 2070 pivot. Short term momentum rose to just below overbought after this morning’s extremely oversold condition. Best to your trading GDP day!

MEDIUM TERM: awaiting downtrend confirmation

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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218 Responses to Thursday update

  1. llerias7 says:

    A close under 2000?? RED alert!…

  2. Walter Crane says:

    RABBIT liked you better as a BEAR. I see nothin to skake me out of all my bear positions, not even these obvious attempts to shake my tree. Of course I went in pretty hard TWO days early on UWTI as is my m.operandi and saw a nice loss for two days, now very solidly in the money. Gimme two days on any bottom or top call. Its BANK.

  3. Walter Crane says:

    Still don’t see anything bullish out there to get me out of my positions….RABBIT

  4. berniebaruch says:

    market in doubt….run out a nice fed governor comment. They must have a dozen of these warehoused to be used as needed.

  5. GYN LAB says:

    Good afternoon!
    Today is uninspiring at best in terms of the Micro 1-2 count, I am now trying to be patient and see which count will emerge, not completely abandoned that 1-2 but Mr T’s c of int IV looks very convincing atm.. looks like starting Micro 5 of c down, next week should confirm either count!

  6. llerias7 says:

    I wonder if this behavior belongs to a P3 wave…some folks argument that we are in a minor 2 of P5 already…

  7. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    If the low today holds, no twisted pretzels.😉
    SPX ~ .618 & a=c @ 2036
    GL & Good Weekend

  8. uncle10 says:

    All in long. stop SPX 2000. great weekend

  9. One heck of a Bull Bear fight at these levels.

    • I thin the problem (from a TA point of view) is that the market has some large leadership stocks that had large topping patters (H&S tops) but now are knocking it out of the park based on earning. Stocks like AMZN, NFLX, and other big stocks with surprises BIIB.

      • Just to clarify anybody’s chart systems can only show trading levels and various algothrims (SMAs, etc). When stocks like AMZN and NFLX totally surprise, it messes up everybody’s charts. Also have to say that this can only happen when insider trading is much less an issue that many people claim, at least when it comes to earnings releases.

  10. mjtplayer says:

    Today is only day 4 of this VIX rally, no new high yet (above yesterdays high), but that’s OK as long as it makes a new high by EOD Monday. Looking for this VIX rally to top out middle of next week in the mid 20’s.

  11. blackjak100 says:

    Well not looking good HOWEVER pretzel thinks the pattern would look best with a new low below 1988 before heading to 2070ish to complete flat.

  12. iamwhoiis says:

    I think the juniors may go higher after they test back test 27.05…in case anyone is interested, see the chart (very short term).

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