Monday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening then rebound, DOW +6

Overnight the Asian markets were mixed. Europe opened lower but gained 0.7%. US index futures were much lower overnight, then gradually rebounded just before the open. At the open the market gapped down to SPX 2047 and continued to decline. The SPX had closed at 2052 on Friday. In the first 15 minutes the SPX traded down to 2041, the low for the day, and then began to rally. By 11am the SPX turned positive at 2054, dipped to 2049 by 11:30, then hit 2058 by 2pm. Then after a pullback to SPX 2052 by 3:30 the market closed at 2057.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds lost 5 ticks, Crude slipped 45 cents, Gold dropped $13, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: Durable goods at 8:30, Case-Shiller at 9am, then Consumer confidence and New home sales at 10am.

The market gapped down at the open for the fifth gap opening in a row: 3 down – 2 up. After pulling back to SPX 2041 the market rallied to fill the gap turning positive by midday. Then closed up for the day. We can count three waves up from the SPX 1988 low: 2029-2004-2065. Then a potential fourth wave pullback to 2041, with now a fifth wave advance to 2058 thus far. Should the market hit SPX 2065 next, this rally will start to look more and more impulsive. Short term support remains at SPX 2029 and the 2019 pivot, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum hit oversold during today’s pullback then bounced to just above neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend range bound

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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154 Responses to Monday update

  1. blackjak100 says:

    Anyone notice the daily NYAD is down a measley -450 or .4%. I’m confident this was not a third of a third wave which leaves it at a c wave. Greg Horvat, EW analyst who counts ES, thinks we just completed triangle at 2013ish.

  2. lunker1 says:

    that NAZ IHS from last week reached its target Friday

  3. Price continues to reject a move outside of lines of confluence … goes up to resistance line, rejects a move higher. Pretty simple: Sit on the sidelines while price hangs out in this range.$INDU&p=D&st=2012-08-02&en=today&id=p30459170602&a=371334597&listNum=7$SPX&p=D&st=2012-08-02&en=today&id=p51035832815&a=316004703&listNum=7

  4. rc1269 says:

    things are pretty bullish for companies as long as they don’t sell anything outside the US, or to US consumers, or to oil, retail or mining companies, or to companies that service oil, retail and mining companies, or to employees that work for oil, retail or mining companies or the companies that service those companies
    so we’ve got that going for us. which is nice

  5. mjtplayer says:

    Just touched the 50% retrace from the recent SPX 2,064 high to this a.m. low; just above 2,042

  6. jobjas says:

    ES heading to wave 2 of a 5 wave down

  7. lunker1 says:

    Reversal candle 2 hour SPY. Can this candle continue on?

  8. This is why I dont trade SP futures or SP 500 etc etc… just focus on individual stocks. Most of the Sp 500 forecasting, including what I do is mental masturbation… mostly a waste of time in a 6 year uptrend. Follow the 34 week Moving Average line on weekly charts, as long as that holds its all you need to know. As that holds, you can continue to pick stocks and if you are wise do well.

    Focus continues to be on Biotech stocks to beat the market for example. Trading the SP 500 is really nearly impossible on a consistent basis. The last 6 trading days a case in point, gap downs 4, gap ups 2. Cant trade that stuff because your too late…

    And yet people try, and Elliott Wavers including me continue to try to map out the path…. but if we are all honest with ourselves, we are right about 1/2 the time maybe and wrong the rest… mostly E waves are used to explain what happened, not what is about to happen.

    And Im an E wave dude… just keeping it real.

    Profits in JUNO yesterday, I bought at 40 sold at 44… 10% 1 day…. CLDN last week at 16.40, sold at 17.75 yesterday for a few days nice swing.

    Trading SP 500 or forecasting it? Mental masturbation purely for the elusive attempts to garner approval of others and admiration for forecasting shrewdness, but in the end 1/2 the time the Wave stuff on this blog and mine are wrong….

    It is what it is… a mess of people with 20 different counts all staring at the same chart…

  9. fishonhook says:

    It’s like someone is leaking the Fed’s meeting in real time to the big players.
    No other reason for the big rebound.
    We just saw bad earnings , bad outlooks for 2015 and revised downward economic numbers.
    No Eater bunny suddenly popped up

  10. gtoptions says:

    Rising wedge on the 5min SPY with .50 @ 204. WPP @ 203.80

  11. stormchaser80 says:

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