Friday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -141

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.5%. US index futures were flat to lower overnight, and the market gapped down to SPX 2058 at the open. The market had closed at SPX 2063 yesterday. By 10am the SPX dipped to 2055 when Existing home sales were reported higher: 5.04mn v 4.93mn, and Leading indicators were reported higher: +0.5% v +0.6%. The market quickly rallied to SPX 2063, then dropped to 2053 by 10:30. After a rally to SPX 2063 by 2pm the market declined to 2051 just before a 2052 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.65%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.15%. Bonds gained 21 ticks, Crude dropped 85 cents, Gold slid $10, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Last night the FED reported an increase in the Monetary base: $4.139tn v $3.941tn. Today the WLEI was reported flat at 45%.

After yesterday’s volatile rally the market entered a pullback period today. Despite the gap down opening the total range from yesterday’s high to today’s low was only 14 points. Quite normal, considering the volatility this month. The count for Minute iii remains the same: Micro 1 2029, Micro 2 2004, and Micro 3 2065 thus far. More on the wave structure and the ECB’s EQE during the weekend. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend trying to extend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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36 Responses to Friday update

  1. fionamargaret says:

    Totally relaxing site…..

  2. simpleiam says:

    Whether you’re short or long for Monday’s markets, I wish you the best in your trading. I’m highly suspicious of lots of “stops running” on Monday, meaning a big reversal(s) sometime during the day; yesterday’s action seemed a classic example. GL to All!

  3. torehund says:
    The tree has been even Sweeden is tilting towards “stimuli”. Pan-European currency collapse in the Cards. Tony mentioned 0,8 on Eur vs Usd. Boots are angry stealing savings from Europeans like “a thief in the night”.

  4. travis01 says:

    I’m bearish as well targeting sub 2000 b4 move up to 2070 range…but do you give much credit to Greece over the weekend (ie results changing direction for few days)?

    • mjtplayer says:

      Polls in Greece show the “Syriza” party leading and should win. That’s not the full concern, the concern is what do they do once in power? And when? Injects uncertainty…

  5. fotis2 says:

    It could also turn out to be just a micro 4 pullback I’ve been burned too many times trying to pick a top..

  6. Getting interesting. Pretzel thinks we’re headed to the low 1800’s to the bottom of the channel. Who’ll be right?

    • Honestly the pattern is confusing. How knows…?? Better don’t pick tops and wait to see at some point the trend will be clear. If still in 3, the 5 of 3 should be clear soon. Today retrace could end up being the 4 of m 1 and if a 5th will follow will not be that long, 5=1, then a clear abc for the 2 and hope we go. If keep grinding high is a disaster…

  7. Thanks, Tony!

    Big Down set ups on the $SPX $INDU, $TRAN, $RUT – perhaps a baby bear about to cut his first tooth 😉

  8. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Good WE all.

  9. fotis2 says:

    Thanks Tony I really admire your patience and effort to label this chaos to me it looks like a series of squigles.Have a nice weekend 🙂

  10. stephenk1980 says:

    Bearish. Short since the wedge breakout. Target 1970

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