Thursday update


Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened lower, but gained 1.3%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 the ECB announced their version of QE to the tune of a minimum of 1.140tn euros. Also at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 307k v 316k, then at 9am the FHFA housing index was reported higher: +0.8% v +0.6%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2045, and then immediately began to sell off. The SPX had closed at 2032 yesterday. Within the first 15 minutes the SPX dropped to 2026, and then began to rebound. The rebound turned into a rally as the SPX hit 2051 by 11am. After a pullback to SPX 2043 by noon, the market moved even higher. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2065, then dipped to close at 2063.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.50%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.80%. Bonds lost 9 ticks, Crude dropped $1.25, Gold rose $10, and the USD rallied. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: Existing home sales and Leading indicators at 10am.

SPX futures were trading higher overnight, dropped nearly back to even, and then started rising again before the ECB press conference at 8:30. After EQE was announced futures spiked higher, but then started to ease back some before the open. The market gapped up to SPX 2045 at the open, and then was immediately sold off to 2026. After that reset the market rallied for the rest of the day.

We continue to count this advance from the recent SPX 1988 low as Minute wave iii. Within Minute iii we have labeled today, SPX 2029 as Micro wave 1 and SPX 2004 as Micro wave 2. Micro 3 should currently be underway. As long as the market does not trade back down to SPX 2029, and below, the count should be fine. Short term resistance is now at the 2070 and 2085 pivots, with support at SPX 2029 and the 2019 pivot. Short term momentum is quite overbought. Best to your friday trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend appears to be resuming

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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183 Responses to Thursday update

  1. fotis2 says:

    When the patterns start failing usually warning sign possible trend reversal.

    • Correct. I indicated this in reply below. Monday/Tueday is the last chance for Bulls

      • fotis2 says:

        Ah you’ve also noticed that odd fact(about the patterns) there are other signs as well the $/yen hit 118.800 and just went down now it looks 118.000 is also resistance with next support 116.000 .Will be interesting week ahead.

  2. uncle10 says:

    Thanks Mr. T.
    Great weekend all!

  3. rc1269 says:

    showing a 29 now. do you think they adjust their “safe haven demand” metric to account for central banks buying up all the risk free bonds? hmm

  4. SPX: has been losing the incline from the bottom, starting today. It means it will either base briefly and gap up over 2065, or will chop down a bit. The wavers likely have a better read than my
    arbitrary 60%/40% now. 🙂

  5. gasman88 says:

    $SOX, $TRAN and $SOX all red today, no follow through after yesterday. I think Monday will tell us if this rally will see new all time high, if we are then we should gap up in the morning imho. Greek election on Sunday is the wild card that will set the tone.

  6. Do you guys realize that almost every major overnight gap up has been sold off for the last few weeks? When this bull was strong the gap ups would just keep going up, what has changed?

  7. Looking over past charts at significant tops, there is always that wave after the top that fools the masses into being long and looking for that next all time high. This could be that wave.

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