SHORT TERM: ECB EQE day, DOW +260
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened lower, but gained 1.3%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 the ECB announced their version of QE to the tune of a minimum of 1.140tn euros. Also at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 307k v 316k, then at 9am the FHFA housing index was reported higher: +0.8% v +0.6%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2045, and then immediately began to sell off. The SPX had closed at 2032 yesterday. Within the first 15 minutes the SPX dropped to 2026, and then began to rebound. The rebound turned into a rally as the SPX hit 2051 by 11am. After a pullback to SPX 2043 by noon, the market moved even higher. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2065, then dipped to close at 2063.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.50%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.80%. Bonds lost 9 ticks, Crude dropped $1.25, Gold rose $10, and the USD rallied. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: Existing home sales and Leading indicators at 10am.
SPX futures were trading higher overnight, dropped nearly back to even, and then started rising again before the ECB press conference at 8:30. After EQE was announced futures spiked higher, but then started to ease back some before the open. The market gapped up to SPX 2045 at the open, and then was immediately sold off to 2026. After that reset the market rallied for the rest of the day.
We continue to count this advance from the recent SPX 1988 low as Minute wave iii. Within Minute iii we have labeled today, SPX 2029 as Micro wave 1 and SPX 2004 as Micro wave 2. Micro 3 should currently be underway. As long as the market does not trade back down to SPX 2029, and below, the count should be fine. Short term resistance is now at the 2070 and 2085 pivots, with support at SPX 2029 and the 2019 pivot. Short term momentum is quite overbought. Best to your friday trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend appears to be resuming
LONG TERM: bull market