Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening sold, then rebound, DOW +4

For the start of the week Asian markets gained 1.5%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.0%. US index futures were higher overnight and the market gapped up to SPX 2027 at the open. The SPX had closed at 2019 on Friday. After a few minutes the SPX hit 2029 and then started to pullback. At 10am FED governor Powell’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20150120a.htm, and the NAHB was reported flat: 57 v 57. The market then dropped to SPX 2010 by 10am, bounced to 2018 by 10:30, then hit 2004 by noon. After that the market started to rally. Around 3:30 the SPX hit 2026, then pulled back to close at 2023.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.55%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude lost $2.45, Gold rallied $17, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: Housing starts and Building permits at 8:30.

The market gapped up at the open to start the week, but immediately sold off. Around noon the SPX had declined 25 points from the opening high to 2004, and then started to rally. The rally nearly retraced the entire morning decline, as the SPX got back to 2026. Currently we can count one wave up from SPX 1988 to 2029, a pullback to 2004, then another rally. If the market can take out this morning’s SPX 2029 high this could suggest the uptrend has resumed, and we will label the recent 1988 low as the end of Minute wave ii. Short term support is at the 2019 pivot and SPX 2004, with resistance at SPX 2029 and then SPX 2057. Short term momentum dropped to neutral during the pullback, from overbought, and ended the day at overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend trying to resume

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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184 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. Opened straddles SPY, GLD. Trend-line not breaking, yet. Waiting ECB and a large move either way…..!!

  2. Walter Crane says:

    Sheeeorrtttttt it…..!

  3. John B says:

    Looking like 2080/95 atm,if the resistance at 2050 area makes way of course

  4. Okay, I’m agnostic on the market at all times. I don’t care which way it goes. So, calling it the way I see it, this does NOT look like a bullish setup. Actually, see that wedge being formed???


  5. John Arella says:

    Party is over, SPX looks like it’s hitting the top channel since the high 🙂

  6. fotis2 says:

    $/YEN looks like wave C down if it plays out we could see the low of day again

  7. lunker1 says:

    2026 top of pivot support?

  8. Any move of FTSE below 6620 is blind sell. Just Checked ATH, it is 6950, way above. If it were close to ATH, then tomorrow it would have blasted thro’.

    I wont post tomorrow till almost evening, but SPX touching 1999 tomorrow, is a blind sell. If it touches 1999 tomorrow, we will see 17XX on spx and eq. fall on all indices. DAX will take most hit during this fall. All these statements are TRUE only if SPX touches 1999 tomorrow. For best fall, SPX should spike to 2046+/-3 and then fall to 1999 and recover to close at 2009.

    However, all said, my model is BUY on all 3 indices, so, SPX remaining at 2030 levels for more than 7 trading days, all SELL signal shatters.

  9. uncle10 says:

    seems everyday a stock has a big run on a false tweet/or headline.
    somebodys making some serious coin in that little game. reckon if they did it smart it would be hard to stop.

  10. GYN LAB says:

    So far the line connecting the highs of 2093, 2064, 2058 holding at 2037.. would be interesting to see if there is another trip below 2000 for another whipsaw!

    • blackjak100 says:

      My ‘abc’ scenario to 2030ish before a third of a third down is working so far. I underestimated the target a little but, but Pretzel nailed it with his 8 point zone of 2035-2043 if 2038 holds.

  11. gOOD LUCK – IM DONE HERE/ This place is funny but not useful …If people actually put time/price down instead of sleight of hand this joint would run out of gravatars.

    Darkness (@SirDarkness) says:
    January 14, 2015 at 9:23 am
    $spx going to a (very) choppy 2156-68 by late March … then get 8-12 % correction
    ibb 331
    oil 54.06 no news…news 61.10

    xscaler – you do good work but now is the time you want to be buying ERX ( 46.66 )

    January 15, 2015 at 1:10 pm
    $Baba long here 96.85 …this is for you Uncle

    • Lee X says:

      See ya soon

    • uncle10 says:

      you r a long time successful trader. I thought you posted here to help others….
      Y worry about what others are saying or doing?
      this goes for CN as well.

    • fionamargaret says:

      A little bit of trivia Darkness – at Davos last night, a vote between the participants to the person they would most like to meet – Jack Ma!
      You are one of the most interesting contributors – please rethink your decision to leave.x

    • CB says:

      Thanks for sharing, darkness. I have a lot of respect for you.

      Here’s an update to the $SPX P&F chart. http://screencast.com/t/Z9SPpzx2YR Today’s move abv 2030 is a break out. P&F charts don’t consider time, so the target may/may not be reached at any time 😉 Or it can be revised (if /when we reach 2070). And we need to hold abv. 1980 at this juncture. Major support still at the blue line.

      Have a great day everyone,. Thanks as always, Tony.

    • I’m confused. Are you attacking me? ERX hit $54 today. A week later. WTF?

    • Page says:

      I do not understand why people are begging him to stay? he is not going anywhere, nobody is going anywhere, this blog is too valuable to ignore. People come back either with same id or with a new id 🙂 so giddy up for tomorrow.

  12. rc1269 says:

    CN – getting to be about that time to take off the 30yr tsy long, if you haven’t already. just my 2 cents

    • Gracias, mi amigo. I took some more off yesterday morning as I thought it was a bit of a gift after the uglies on Friday, and have just a 2 lot left. Mental stop is a pit close below 146’19 but watching closely – it may be a 2 lot, but between here and my stop its braces for my youngest 🙂 (I’d never decide what to do based on that of course, but I am considering taking the money and running as early as this afternoon. I am kind of eying a Globex shut down under 149’08 as my uncle point. Thanks again, your input is always appreciated.

      • rc1269 says:

        cool. not saying you won’t get another chance to put that trade back on again. prob just at slightly cheaper levels. GL braces rock

  13. Unless we can get some good follow thru, I believe this pop was the news and we will sell the news down to 1900.1965 by Friday.

  14. fotis2 says:

    Looks like retest of pivot and take it from there geez quite tricky today..

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