SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -331
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened lower and lost 2.8%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market gapped down at the open to SPX 2046. By 10am, when Auto sales were reported higher, the SPX hit 2033. After a bounce to SPX 2039 by 10:30 the market started to stair step down, dropping about 10 points then bouncing 5 points. At 1:30 the SPX hit the 2019 pivot, bounced to 2025 by 2pm, hit 2017 by 3pm, then rallied to 2027 just before the 2021 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.85%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.60%. Bonds gained 20 ticks, Crude lost $2.90, Gold rallied $17, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: Factory orders and ISM services at 10am.
The market gapped down at the open to officially kick off 2015. Within the first half hour the market dropped below SPX 2040, suggesting the recent 2094 high was the end of Minute wave one of the Minor 3 uptrend and Minute wave two has been underway. As the market worked its way lower it hit the 2019 pivot range by 11:30, then the 2019 pivot by 1:30. This pivot range has been expected to provide support if the market traded below SPX 2040. SPX 2019 is also a perfect 61.8% retracement of the entire 1973-2094 rally. This kind of pullback, during the second wave of an uptrend, has not occurred since the August 2013 to January 2014 Minute iii uptrend. Kind of unusual in relation to 2014, but not unusual for the bull market. Should the market lose the 2019 pivot range (2012-2026), then this decline may suggest a correction is underway. Short term support is at the 2019 and 1973 pivot, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivot. Short term momentum is getting extremely oversold. Best to your new year trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market