Monday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -331

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened lower and lost 2.8%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market gapped down at the open to SPX 2046. By 10am, when Auto sales were reported higher, the SPX hit 2033. After a bounce to SPX 2039 by 10:30 the market started to stair step down, dropping about 10 points then bouncing 5 points. At 1:30 the SPX hit the 2019 pivot, bounced to 2025 by 2pm, hit 2017 by 3pm, then rallied to 2027 just before the 2021 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.85%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.60%. Bonds gained 20 ticks, Crude lost $2.90, Gold rallied $17, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: Factory orders and ISM services at 10am.

The market gapped down at the open to officially kick off 2015. Within the first half hour the market dropped below SPX 2040, suggesting the recent 2094 high was the end of Minute wave one of the Minor 3 uptrend and Minute wave two has been underway. As the market worked its way lower it hit the 2019 pivot range by 11:30, then the 2019 pivot by 1:30. This pivot range has been expected to provide support if the market traded below SPX 2040. SPX 2019 is also a perfect 61.8% retracement of the entire 1973-2094 rally. This kind of pullback, during the second wave of an uptrend, has not occurred since the August 2013 to January 2014 Minute iii uptrend. Kind of unusual in relation to 2014, but not unusual for the bull market. Should the market lose the 2019 pivot range (2012-2026), then this decline may suggest a correction is underway. Short term support is at the 2019 and 1973 pivot, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivot. Short term momentum is getting extremely oversold. Best to your new year trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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220 Responses to Monday update

  1. simpleiam says:

    Wanted to nibble some more, but think I’d better wait… GL All!

  2. My little bear voice is saying “the lower daily bollinger band is stretching lower and we haven’t even tagged it yet.” At this moment this bounce looks to me like just that, a bounce. Maybe a B wave of the decline, but that’s it so far. Am thinking the market just completed a of the B wave higher, with b and c coming tomorrow, then a big flush later in the week into next week. Also am noticing that SPX has found support at the middle weekly bollinger band. Worth watching to see where it closes out the week in relation to that.

  3. lunker1 says:

    So will the 2019 pivot range be support or resistance?

  4. mike7x says:

    From Kimble Charting: The last 2 times stocks fell the 1st 3 days of the year, they crashed…

    • CB says:

      : ) thanks Mike. Like that dude – he has a great sense of humor.

      • mike7x says:

        Hey CB, Yeah he has some really interesting charts full of statistical data, with a touch of humor thrown in. So, the last day of the prior year and the first 3 days of the new year are all down for the SPX. Interesting. IMO we may test at least 1973 soon, and likely 1910.

      • CB says:

        good stuff, Mike, Thanks !

      • CB says:

        more cycle info, if you’re interested, Mike

        • mike7x says:

          Thanks CB! I still think we’re in a strong bull market with at least one 10-20% correction at some time. But when? I do fully agree with one of the last comments from the article though:
          “But for me, nothing has changed. Whether this is a ‘5’ year or not, 2015 represents a maturing bull market that has bubble like tendencies with lots of problems the world hasn’t seen in a long time. We would be incredible fortunate if the SPX did anything remotely close to the performance of 2014.”

      • CB says:

        indeed, Mike, and “fortunate” doesn’t even exist in the market – you get what you deserve 🙂

  5. Page says:

    VIX is sending the signal market is done going down, at least until Friday.

  6. magicianme says:

    Nice IHS just formed on the M5. Anyone taking it up?

  7. fotis2 says:

    Looks like a litle IHS on 5min.2016 payout

  8. blackjak100 says:

    I’m abandoning EW because it’s hard to predict and going to subscribe to the gartman letter

  9. gasman88 says:

    Gold miners are having huge day, looks like the bottom has been formed. Have they turned the corner?

  10. copy of last friday’s spx warning:

    standard_and_ poor @S_AND_P · Jan 2
    #Spx correction to 1966 in a furious “c” wave fashion is possible.

  11. jeffbalin says:

    5 big down days in a row. Zoom up, zoom down, repeat.

  12. Walter Crane says:

    Tony u and I should form a partnership. Just put out buy or long suggestions two days after I take a position. LOLS. Anyways loving this move down so far, very profitable. Just bought a lot of snxg @.22 and still holding my mpvc@8.00, its trading at 10 bucks today, expect higher soon.

  13. mjtplayer says:

    Anyone else notice the lower high in the Dollar/Yen? Dec 8th at 121.84 was not exceeded in late Dec. That tells me one should expect a LL, thus sub 115.56 from Dec 16th.

    C=A would be around 114.54
    C=1.618 of A would be 110.66

    The Oct high was 110.08 and the 110 area was resistance for a while. What was resistance is now support.

  14. jobjas says:

    Wave A complete @1985 ES

  15. rabbittrader1 says:

    rc1269: No there is not a March call for UCO .So obviously you go to the next closest month which is the APRIL 15 call option. The March 15th date is .when I expect crude to touch between $77.50 and $80 per barrel When I wrote this oil had already touched $48 and change. It is still there and I stand by my recommendation. I bought UCO April 15 calls at $12 strike this AM at $0.80. R.

  16. rc1269 says:

    has a year ending in ‘5’ ever been a down year?

  17. teej911 says:

    As soon as a downtrend is confirmed the market bounces back and with a vengeance. Gas prices very low and consumer sentiment up and earning around the corner (most look to meet or beat estimates), I think I will sit still this time and add a bit on this dip. The count seems too convoluted right now.

  18. scottycj1 says:

    Will it hold……probably good for a bounce

  19. H D says:

    2019 pivot only got a minor abc, 34 handle hit from HOD

  20. mjtplayer says:

    The uptrend line connecting the Oct lows & Dec lows is long gone, now we’ve broken SPX 2,000. The last hope for the bulls is the 1,974 area, if that gets taken out, even by one penny, then it’s P4 time – IMO.

    I see a completed ED with wave 1 the Sept high, wave 2 the Oct lows, wave 3 the late Nov/early Dec highs, wave 4 the mid-Dec low and wave 5 the Dec 29th top. Pull-up a 6-mo chart of the SPX, it’s staring you in the face.

  21. playitkool says:

    33% short volatility here. Thinking spx 2000 is good for a bounce of at least .38. Waiting to add.

  22. GYN LAB says:

    At 76.4%… can this pull together

  23. JD C. says:$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p17184375947&a=351427231&r=1420562654115&cmd=print$SPX&p=W&yr=15&mn=0&dy=0&id=p84695263667&a=380044793&r=1420562700511&cmd=print
    When I drew the 60 min red pitchfork I did not expect it to pan out. Look for (middle line) median line to provide some support. And the long term pitchforks continue to hold as of now, we shall see. I try not to call a trend change, just follow the one we’re in.

  24. Well I have to say that this does not look like a typical pullback. Even the smallest bounces are being sold into immediately. Hard to see this going back up to highs too quickly. Retest of December lows looks more likely than not to me.

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