Friday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +24

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. European markets were closed. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up at the open to SPX 2088. Around 10am the SPX hit 2092, then pulled back to 2089 just past 12pm. After that the market moved higher again. At 2pm the market hit SPX 2093, then pulled back to end the week at 2089.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.70%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude lost 90 cents, Gold rallied $21, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2214 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 46.7% v 46.9%.

The market gapped up at the open for the second time this week. After hitting a new high at SPX 2092 the market pulled back, then hit another new high. The seven wave pattern from SPX 1992 continues to extend: 2047-2033-2071-2062-2078-2069-2093 so far. We have been counting this pattern as a 1-2-3-4 to SPX 2062, then a subdividing wave 5. However, you will note that wave 3 is shorter than wave 1, which limits the upside of wave 5 to SPX 2100. More details in the weekend update. Short term support is now at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2100 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum is displaying a negative divergence, and finished the week overbought. Best to your holiday weekend!


About tony caldaro

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16 Responses to Friday update

  1. Japan has approved stimulus 29B dollar on Saturday. I think it will b gap up on Sunday evening, 3points on SPX.

  2. torehund says:

    Thanks for Your work Tony.
    Not much to add, I think dollar is turning Down as the burst of deflation is taking a pause, then Rut broke out after a year long churn, I have a preliminary aim at 185….it could go fast…

  3. M1 says:

    Thanks Tony
    I increased from 30% to 50% the probabilty NAZ may have bottomed at 4547 and interm wave ii of major wave 3 of primary wave III is in place.
    I still see a risk for another selloff before it bottoms.
    Have a great weekend

  4. seems the VIX has good amount of room to move on the downside. chart here==>

    Basically the santa rally could have started, and the VIX does actually agree.

    There were a few well known analysts calling for a crash into end of year, so far, that does not look likely.

  5. simpleiam says:

    Thanks much for the Update, Tony.
    Have coffee, Will travel (to laptop in the morning for the WU).

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