Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: quiet day, DOW +6

Overnight the Asian markets finished mixed. Europe opened higher, but finished mixed as well. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 280k v 289k. The market opened two points above yesterday’s SPX 2082 close. It then drifted higher to SPX 2088 by 11:30. After that it pulled back to end the end just about unchanged at SPX 2082.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.15%. Bonds lost 2 ticks, Crude dropped $1.45, Gold slipped $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2070 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 and 2131 pivots. Tomorrow is a national holiday. Friday the market is open for regular hours.

The market opened higher today, drifted to a new all time high at SPX 2088, then pulled back into the close. Thus far, the rally from Monday’s SPX 2069 low continues with no significant reversals. Also the rally from last week’s SPX 1992 low continues, as that rally appears to be in its 7th wave: 2047-2033-2071-2062-2078-2069-2088. Not much of a change over the past two days. Short term support remains at the 2070 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 and 2131 pivots. Short term momentum pulled back some yesterday, then dropped below neutral in the last hour of trading. Best to your holiday!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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65 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. manunidhi21 says:

    Namaste Tony!

    how much % to NAZ count ?
    Infact from 2009-2014 its all Naz stocks

  2. ariez5 says:

    Interesting that bonds and the VIX are up as well as stocks.
    Do you see a rising wedge in SPX over the last few days?

  3. llerias7 says:

    I guess when minute I concludes a green (I) will apear like it shows in minor 1. Also means the bull still alive for more 2-3 months to come…and this giant/endless P3 might top around
    spx 2200´s !!

  4. 7dayyss says:

    If the oil contango keeps up into the new year, TNK will participate again, back at the secondary offer price. FRO should continue on also.
    Hope everyone had a Merry Christmas, and a prosperous New Year ahead!

  5. gasman88 says:

    My New Year resolution for 2015: Buy every dip when RSI on daily SPX chart touches 30 and stay long for at least a month.

  6. Back in November Gold record weekly back-to-back bullish trend reversal hammer doji’s in which I stated that would take more than a wreaking ball to invalidate them. There is no doubt that the gold shorts have been trying desperately for 6 weeks now to invalidate the twin hammers without success. Instead, on the daily chart, two additional uptrend reversal patterns (IHS and BARR pattern) have emerge with a probable price target of 1320-1350. See chart below.
    I’m pretty sure Buddyglove will turn up soon with “Disagree!”

  7. torehund says:
    Cycle wave 1 just finished (w1 and w2-top) for the USD vs other currencies.

  8. spindoc73 says:

    If the market popped on the “end of the year trade” tomorrow, a case could be made for a correction on the scale of weeks.

  9. fotis2 says:

    Looking at $/yen took a gap down -0.3% spx could be in for a micro 4 wave Friday

  10. drwarmington says:

    Tony.. just a quick question, if you are around. And a Merry Christmas to you. You have pivots at 2079 and 2085, both of which were hit this week. Is it because we are in wave 3 that you are not expecting a move below 2078. If we drop below 2078, are we in a different count or maybe we just finished the 1st wave of 3? Thanks

  11. blackjak100 says:

    Merry Christmas TC and the OEW crew! Just a quick thought as we approach 2015…

    What if this is a B wave of an expanded flat (3-3-5) as Nate Kautz proposes? The ideal target for [B] would be 2095 or 138.2% * a (still need a fourth and fifth wave to the target). The daily RSI is certainly indicating this as a strong possibility with the huge divergence. The [C] wave target would then be 1775 or 161.8% * a. This scenario is very similar to Pretzel’s theme…”What if Virtually Everyone Has it Wrong?” Cheers!

    • simpleiam says:

      Hi BJ. Merry Christmas! There are a number of people I know, myself included, who still have this downside possibility on their watch list. Thanks for the chart and the levels.

      • blackjak100 says:

        Merry Christmas simplify! NYAD has not made a new high which strengthens this scenario so far. All indices showing big divergences on the daily scale which has been very reliable. This also allows for RUT to make a new high which it seems magnitized to do. Think we started fourth wave correction on wed and targets 2060ish.

      • simpleiam says:

        Thanks BJ. So, I take it your in favor of the minor or minute 4, instead of the ABC? I continue to track as many as I can…And there are quite a few.

      • simpleiam says:

        Make that micro or minute 4…

    • torehund says:

      First wave normally acts like an abc, and that doesnt make the 5 wave structure (as a Whole) less impulsive…

    • tony caldaro says:

      Does it look like a B wave?

    • perversionofthemean says:

      BlackJak – I lean this direction too, but must admit to being caught off guard for the magnitude of this potential “B”. What I note is the break in the weekly RUT momentum trend, with this whole rally just a snapback to the underside. If this is the true situation, then both A and C should tickle the underside, cause price to move to NH’s, but quickly produce a failed breakout. Adding to this bearish look, the momentum of the relative strength of RUT vs. SPX shows a comparable trend break, with recent strength also just a snapback. Snapbacks necessarily imply there’s a ceiling now below a failed floor, so I can use it as a stop, but it’s the magnitude of the move from your (A) low that is painful. Luckly, I’ve not been short, and am still about 50% long in my account, but 100% long would have been nicer.
      The only bit of my analysis that is troubling me is that the slope of the uptrend was steeper than usual, and significant breaks like ’00 and ’07 were more credible. Perhaps the reason for the strength of this snapback is due to the fact that the slope of the prior trend was so great, and that leaves more room to “catch up” to the underside.
      How high do you envision this c of (C) can rise, and what would alert you to its completion? Thanks!

  12. Thanks for all you do Tony!

    Merry Christmas to everyone here, may you enjoy your time with those closest to you, and may we remember the Reason for the season.

  13. Tony. Thanks for all that you do. You work hard and share with others. You are very generous. Merry Christmas to you and your loved ones. Rick

  14. Noticing that lower RSI reading on the higher SPX high in the daily chart. Notice how that’s been pretty consistent in warning of the impending decline.

    Sorry for the negative nanny on Christmas Eve. I have gotten really into the oil trade using XLE and specifically ERX. TNA pays the bills. But that trade I’m telling you all is going to be a biggy next year. I think the story of 2015 will have something to do with something crazy happening geo-politically due to the oil price problem many loser countries face. As T Boone Pickens said the other day, “Saudi Arabia is making enemies by the hour”[with what they’re doing]. Russia really is the only big boy on the block capable of changing things up in a big way if they see the need.

    Interesting times ahead. And very profitable if you’re patient.

    • cicelyalaska says:

      Research the long term relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia before implying Russia would mess with the Saudis. It’s not happening. The Saudis are an important US ally and are right now doing a favor to the west. You’ll return the favor in a few years with each tank of gas you fill up.

    • fotis2 says:

      Xscaler thanks for the TNA setup you posted 2 weeks ago i traded off it and man you hit it on the nose so smiling for a change as for pointing the RSI on SPX out I for one get too complacement with direction once established focusing on the smaller squigles that i very often miss whats screaming loudly on the chart to my disadvantage.

    • Holly Silver says:

      Oil is definitely an unresolved issue. There is no way a one week correction and follow up to new highs resolved these issues. Huge oversupply in December, largest ever. Market is always looking for a bargain, and Oil is the fools game now. It will drop to 50 soon just based on fundamentals. This is why I base my assumption that the recent drop to 1970 (SPX) is not the bottom. Next 2 weeks should give us a clue just how unresolved these issues are.

  15. soulsurfer says:

    thanks tony, and merry Christmas to you and everybody here!

  16. torehund says:

    Seems like the bottom feeders are getting ready and prepared….look no further than nat gas testing 2,8…oil bottoming out and the euro….what Will be the trigger for a dollar weakness ?, inflation figures maybe..something plausible Will eventually popp up and give us a real new year rally…You cant raly the economy 5 percent without creating SOME inflation and SOME increased energy demand..

  17. M1 says:

    This is a great blog !!
    Thanks everyone for sharing their ideas.
    Thanks Tony.
    Merry Christmas

  18. Hi and Merry Christmas to all!

    Anyone have a count on the recent XLE decline? Can’t quite work it out over here. Am thinking it ended Major A of Primary A last week with Major B in progress, but not really sure. Am expecting much lower prices in oil stocks due to expecting crude to get in the 30’s in the coming months. Thinking the Major C down coincides with minor iv to come in SPX and Primary C down ends up coinciding with Primary IV in the broad market. Any thoughts? Thanks!

  19. scottycj1 says:

    May you be awash with peace and tranquility……….Feliz Navidad from Puerto Rico
    Love those around you ………..and be greatful

  20. Tony, Merry Christmas to you and yours … and to all on your blog. Your daily/weekend updates throughout the years is a great gift to all. I am grateful.

  21. JeffMilano says:

    Buon Natale, Tony!

  22. Hi,
    Tony,Merry Christmas to you and for all
    i still believe we can see Dow at 19k in this leg,probably at the beginning of 2015

  23. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony and I wish you and yours all the best for a very happy holiday season! Merry Christmas with no lumps of coal in your stockings. At least not till the new year and P4 (early indicator). 😉

  24. cwallace90 says:

    Merry Christmas and Happy New Year all!

    Chris W. (OEW Group)

  25. maximus says:

    Thanks for all of your hard work and time involved. Meerry Christmas and a safe and prosterous New Year.

    “Generosity is the most natural outward expression of an inner attitude of compassion and loving-kindness.”

    ― Dalai Lama XIV

  26. Interesting volume in final minutes on CL (crude oil futures)….Think the bots were busy hitting all the long and short stops….just speculating here but it was intense

  27. mharrison60 says:

    Thanks Tony for great insights this year!

    Happy holidays to you and all who contribute here in so many different ways.

  28. pooch77 says:

    Just need to say thank you T.C. for your free market analysis and i wish you the very best Xmas and a Happy 2015

  29. playitkool says:

    Merry Christmas everyone and thanks Tony for the gift of this blog.

  30. simpleiam says:

    Tony, here’s wishing you a very Merry Christmas, and much thanks for your charting and free public forum. Nobody does it better! Most of all, I wish You and All here the best of health. See you Friday. M

  31. fotis2 says:

    Thank you very much Tony and have a lovely holiday and a special thanks to all here who post regular great job guys and girls learning more and more by the day.

  32. Holly Silver says:

    Reading the charts wrong IMHO. Recent drop to 1970 will be tested or broken on the downside early January. Dollar should spike soon as OIL plunges to next target of 50. Dec crude inventories surged 7 million barrels, most of any December reading. Foreign investors should flee soon, currency disruptions, and major energy issues with some companies and nations. Retail will hit the 4 to 5 percent increase expected. Domestic economy detaching from world economies. We will get hit hard. Unresolved issues over energy big drop. It will not hold at 55. Buffet has once again added a huge amount of cash over last 6 months. Total market cap over GDP is at 128.5%. Highest ever was 148% during tech bubble. This is his favorite tool.

  33. 56rambler says:

    Thank you, Mr Caldaro. Happy Holidays!

  34. Tony, I wish you a Merry Christmas, and to all here, friend and troll alike, a Merry Christmas to each and everyone!

  35. bhupal777 says:

    Tony, Merry Chritmas to you !!!

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