Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +65

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.2%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.6%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Q3 GDP was reported: +5.0% v +3.9%, but Durable goods were reported lower: -0.7% v +0.4%. At 9am the FHFA housing index was reported higher: +0.6% v 0.0%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2085, moved up to 2086 by 10am, then started to pullback. At 10am Consumer sentiment was reported lower: 93.6 v 93.8, PCE prices were reported flat: 0.0% v +0.2%, New home sales were reported lower: 438k v 458k, and Personal income (+0.4% v +0.2%)/spending (+0.6% v +0.2%) were reported higher. The pullback ended around 10:30 when the SPX hit 2080, and then the market started to drift higher. Just before 3pm the SPX hit 2087, then pulled back to close at 2082.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.30%. Bonds lost 23 ticks, Crude rallied $1.85, Gold added $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2070 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 and 2131 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, and the market closes at 1pm.

The market gapped up at the open today after Q3 GDP was reported +5.0%. The SPX hit 2086 in the first half hour of trading, pulled back to 2080, then hit a new high at 2087. From last week’s SPX 1992 low it now looks like we have seven waves up into today’s high. This suggests a possible small pullback, and then higher highs. What would negate this scenario is a drop below SPX 2078. With tomorrow being half a day, and most traders already gone for the holiday, we doubt the weekly jobless claims report is going to move the markets. Expecting a quiet day. Happy holidays!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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66 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. jeffbalin says:

    Happy Holidays everyone. Thank you Tony for sharing your extraordinary work.

  2. 10.4 Million jobs created since Jan 2010 per BLS
    2Q & 3Q GDP Y2014 supposedly indicate economy at escape velocity
    Yet the Grinch appears to be stealing X-mas, since word on the street is that retail sales are underperforming predictions in a big way. This is favor my earlier gut assumptions that we are not likely to see that jolly X-mas Hangover Rally….Either Friday or Monday will give us the clue


    • Holly Silver says:

      Retail is doing well. Target is 4 to 5 percent. Dollar is doing very well. Pressure on OIL is about to be felt once again. Dec crude inventory rose by 7 million barrels most in any December. Dollar should peak soon, in next 2 months. Domestic economy is the best in over 7 years. Small business confidence the highest since pre-mortgage debacle.

      The next bear will be because of overseas weakness, currencies disruption, selling by foreign investors, and another big drop in OIL. 50 is the minimum support. We are entering a bear that will last 5 months or so and drop 20 percent. It should actually start right at the New Year. Next move on SPX should hit or break below the recent 1970 Mark. Wild moves to start the New year, but the bull should be broken.

    • CB says:

      Interesting, huh? Procrastination is really a euphemism for deflationary expectations becoming embedded in the consumer psyche ..(?)

    • simpleiam says:

      Matador, I disagree and think when all is said and done, Retail numbers will be good.

    • Holly – Nationally sales were projected to exceed 4% but projections are now being nearly half that, hence if the target projection is misses by greater than 100bps that is a disapptmt in my book and proves that the retail industry was way too optimistic just like last year. And just like last year the retailer bogus excuse again is that the after X-mas sales will be the biggest shopping sales day of the year. Go Figure! A lot of variables can cause the GDP #s to rise (such as a investments, rising dollar and lower imports $$$, we just witness how the lower oil has been boosting GDP) even though the true internal economic growth variables of the economy are only sputtering/dragging along – do I hear green shoots. I can go to great length on the GDP topic but I will stop here.
      Secondly, back in mid-2013 WS and its media pundits proclaim that we would witness an escape velocity economy in starting in 2014. Well that BS talk has dried up and we have been left still waiting for it cause it is not here yet. Not to mention that if we are truly at escape velocity the consumer should be out partying and spending like it’s 1999 but IMO a very large population of consumers have been chocked off the economy.
      Thirdly, WS and it media pundits have been screaming that foreign funds are starting to and will continue to flooding our shores. I’m a contrarian so IMO the larger majority of the “foreign funds gate flooding” has already flood our shores. Yes the flooding is not over yet but not much life left in it.

      • jeffbalin says:

        I’m in retail. Online retail is ok, but brick and mortar generally no. With almost 50% of Christmas shopping done online, the big days for real stores is now reduced to Black Friday weekend with little margins and 5 days or so before Christmas when it is too late to buy online. That’s it. Other then that, it’s weak. Retail mall sales clearly off here in Northen California. I expect the numbers for Big box chain stores to be about the same in general.

  3. CB says:

    Thank you for sharing your thoughtful analysis, Tony!
    Have a great Holiday Season everyone! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hMhMekfIyos
    P.S. Dear Santa, is it too late to get a bit oversold?😉

  4. uncle10 says:

    Keep a eye on the ferts. POT, MOS, AGU, CF etc. setting up kind of nice I think. got some “cheap” haha😉 near term calls on them. If they can start up it could be a nice trend move. gl

  5. pooch77 says:

    Seems to be a disconnect between Russel 2000 as they are 6 points and iwm up .02

  6. Tony,
    Didn’t you mention at one point that 2087 had some significance?

  7. fibs-R-us says:

    Does that look like a potential ending diagonal forming on the SPX 5 minute chart?

  8. tradeanimal says:

    Tony and all. A very Merry Christmas!

  9. buddyglove says:

    Thanks Tony, and Seasons Greetings to all those here from around the world, who come here to offer their wit an wisdom.

  10. mjtplayer says:

    Happy Holidays Everyone! Merry Christmas Tony!

  11. Wishing Tony, all blogger and your families a wonder Merry X-mas/Holidays. Cheers everyone

  12. @Tonny and blogmates

    Happy Holidays

  13. ABchart says:

    Tony and all the other contributors:
    Only one month on this blog but I enjoyed your company.
    Happy holidays and may God bless you.

  14. bouraq says:

    Merry christmas:
    $SPX $DJIA $RUT $GBPUSD $AUDUSD $OIL $GOLD http://www.tradingchannels.co.uk/2014/12/merry-christmas.html

  15. torehund says:


    …if you had to choose just one commodity for 2015….then go for a potential rocket ship

  16. hkloon says:

    Thx tony and all, happy holidays to all….🙂

  17. lunker1 says:

    Thx Tony for giving and sharing so much so often. Have a Merry Christmas 🎅🎄

  18. fotis2 says:

    Avery Merry Xmas mr.Caldaro and Happy Holidays to everyone on the site🙂 ;): 🙂 ho ho ho

  19. randomacts4 says:

    Happy Holidays, Tony! Many thanks to you for a wonderful blog.

  20. This market stood up like a hero and tock the 5% on the chin a like a hero.
    Be proud America we love you.
    The world is resonating on your ability to perform and perform only.

    Do you see thist as an exercise to demonstrate how for we can take this?

  21. update for tuesday and strategy for wednesday (within blog’s remarks sect.): https://standardpoor.wordpress.com #gold #uvxy #investing

  22. uncle10 says:

    Thanks Tony and all.
    Happy Holidays!!

  23. fionamargaret says:

    Happy Holidays Tony and all contributors.

    If anyone is on their own, pop back to the site – there will always be someone around.

  24. bhtrade says:

    Per Sentimentrader:
    With $SPX at a 52wk high, largest loss ever on Xmas Eve is -0.2% (since ’50). From Eve thru 3 days after, it was up 13/13 times.

  25. M1 says:

    Thanks Tony
    I still see the same. This may have been only a NAZ countertrend rally and a new wave down should be next.
    (I give only a 30% probability 4547 was the end of the correction).
    Merry Christmas.

  26. looks to be smooth sailing. the charts look great. the numbers the government makes up are great and the fed is behind you. What could really go wrong? nothing I can see .

  27. Looks to me like maybe a bit bigger correction due here…maybe 40 S&P points.

  28. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony ~ Merry Christmas

  29. fotis2 says:

    Thanks Tony appreciated

  30. llerias7 says:

    Thank you mr.TC. The EW count rests on a minute (i) of minor 3?

  31. simpleiam says:

    Merry Christmas, Tony! Appreciate your work this year, and next year to come.

    Could you please clarify your statement below? Did you mean 2078 or another number?
    “This suggests a possible small pullback, and then higher highs. What would negate this scenario is a drop below SPX 2078.”

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