Monday update

SHORT TERM: uptrend confirmed, DOW +155

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.9%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.5%. US index futures were higher overnight and the market opened three points above Friday’s SPX 2071 close. At 10am Existing home sales were reported lower: 4.93mn v 5.26mn. The market pulled back to SPX 2069 by 11am, and then started to drift higher. Heading into the last hour of trading the SPX hit its all time high at 2079, and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.30%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude dropped $1.80, Gold fell $22 and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2070 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 and 2131 pivots. Tomorrow: Q3 GDP (est. +4.25%) and Durable goods orders at 8:30, the FHFA housing index at 9am, then Consumer sentiment, Personal income/spending, PCE prices and New home sales 10am.

Another quiet opening on this holiday week. The market opened higher, dipped just below SPX 2070, and then rallied back to the all time high, 2079, at the close. Compared to last week today looked more like a drift higher, than a big rally. The market did pullback some today, but found support at SPX 2069. After that it moved slightly above SPX 2078, suggesting the current third wave, from SPX 1992, continues higher. Lots of economic data tomorrow, which could lead to some volatility despite the low volume. Best to your trading, and Happy Holidays!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend confirmed

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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101 Responses to Monday update

  1. rabbittrader1 says:

    Although I am not making any more predictions (on the SPX ) I am still heavily SHORT the market through earlier purchases of the ETF “SPXS” . Having my afternoon VODKA with Arizona ICED TEA, and listening to my old tape of ELVIS Christmas songs from 1958 or so ,and.reminiscing.;”I’ll have a Blue Christmas without you” etc. . Here’s a toast to all on this site , who were in the markets ,and may have won or lost, But at least you were IN the ” RING ” and may have been bloodied , but not bowed CHEERS ! MERRY CHRISTMAS, BABY (another of Elvis songs) Rabbit.

  2. Hi Tony,
    You have been right on. Kudos to you! But, I have to say that imho this market is extremely overbought, but just in time for the holidays. There’s a time to buy and there’s a time to sell. IMHO it feels more like we are in some sort of a topping process. Have a wonderful holiday and new year. Keep up the excellent work. G-d bless you.

  3. Meanwhile, bonds have sold off 2+ handles since this morning.

    Merry Christmas!

  4. I have been tracking this angled IHS on the RUT since the RS started forming on Dec 16th. According Stock Trader’s Almanac the RUT typically out perform their big bro Large Caps typically from mid-Dec through-out January

    • Yesterday I saw someone post something about a top of some sort on the $RUT, and today she is doing her best to set up a Big Down. I’m doing it piker style, and I bought TZA Jan 16 2015 $12 calls. There’ll be time enough to short some TF if this is to be a Big Down. Not making a call nor a prediction, just sharing an observation and my predicament 😉

    • Thanks, CN….always appreciate your insight and agree with you.
      I am also a big believer that the Santa Claus Rally comes in two Phase (Phase 1 is the Xmas rally which is the 7 trading days prior to X-mas and Phase 2 X-mas hangover which is the 7 trading days after X-mas). We got our Phase 1 Rally but right now my indicators are warning me that we are not likely to get the 2 phase rally. Also if indices record a red bearish hammer doji on the monthly chart that is a big warn shot that we should see a downtrend reversal of significant size.

  5. Dex T says:

    The San Francisco Fed is anticipating a large market decline.

    “The retirement of the baby boomers is expected to severely cut U.S. stock values in the near future,” economic research from the San Francisco Fed proclaimed. The most recent research builds on 2011 modeling from from San Francisco Fed researcher Zheng Liu and Vice President of the Economic Research Department Mark Spiegel.

  6. almost time for you market ramp and vix smash brought to you courtesy of you federal reserve.

  7. ABchart says:

    Q3 US GDP seems fake to me. Lower net incomes. Decline in durable goods orders. Decline in energy prices. Decline of manufacturing and services PMI. So how is this possible? Martians went shopping on the 8th day of the week?

  8. I think I would love to see the VIX go green. just to make today a little exciting. may be fun to see a wrench thrown into the Feds planned ramp

  9. Some interesting fiboextensions in SPX:

    1. 1576-666 (2007) extension 1,618 = SPX 2139
    2. 2019-1821 (2014) extension 1,618 = SPX 2143
    3. 2079-1973 (2014) extension 1,618 = SPX 2142

    Quite a massive wall at that SPX level

  10. fotis2 says:

    Is this not the start of the Xmas rally?

  11. Soodi says:

    Markets are extremely overbought, due for pullback then move higher towards 2150 by 2nd/3rd week of Jan 2015 then a healthy correction.

  12. FTSE is likely generate SELL on my model by around. 31st. Model does not (but I am taking into) account holiday season. ATM, all (FTSE, INDU, SPX) are BUY on my model.

  13. mjtplayer says:

    Biotech is really getting trashed today, perhaps the ESRX decision yesterday between GILD & ABBV will have analysts rethinking estimates across the board. ESRX is really trying to squeeze costs, good for them, these drugs and treatments are insanely priced.

  14. wpmiii says:

    Merry Christmas to all here.

  15. H D says:

    Best economy in a decade! U S A !!!! 2085 pivot.

    Merry Christmas all.

  16. algos job today is to keep the VIX red

  17. scottycj1 says:

    Today is a CIT…..

  18. scottycj1 says:

    Daily resistance 2091-93

  19. simpleiam says:

    Would like to see a gap up over the 2085 pivot area. Seems the best gains have been made with gap up openings.

  20. fotis2 says:

    Greek elections had no effect.

  21. gasman88 says:

    Lights, camera, action..all guests including Jeremy Siegel lined up at CNBC.
    DOW 18,000!!!!

  22. bouraq says:

    Gold lacking momentum:

  23. ABchart says:

    Thanks Tony. Thanks to everyone.

    SPX and CAC40: My latest update .

  24. Tony: Thanks for the great weekend update on a very difficult market to track.
    Soulsurfer: Thanks for the excellent TA of the NYA last week. Since you wrote your piece, it seems like the NYA has strengthened a bit

  25. Gary Lewis says:

    Sounds like Rabbit is throwing in the towel, Scotty is no longer predicting devastation. Could this be the top???? My most favorite (but ineffective) setup thus far is playing out, the three-week test of the high. SPY at 208 on Friday close. But we will probably go to new highs. No more put buying for me. I’m a “buy the dips” convert 😉

    • scottycj1 says:

      Sounds like YOUR throwing in the towel to me. I still think we could be looking at longer term highs….cycles call for 2015 to be weak. You’ll also remember my call for 2138-9 Jan 8-12…Just been looking for another pull back. Merry Christmas to all and to all a good night.

    • CB says:

      not a good day for biotechs today.. we seem to be losing some leadership here…

    • fotis2 says:

      Theres a lot to be said about just sticking to the trend i was long $/yen from last week target 121 and than the news hit that boj will be printing more money and i stupidly went and shorted it so i threw back the profits only to now watch it almost at target obviously charts dont read news….

      • chrisk44342 says:

        Hi Fotis. This is why I prefer trending channels. Without being able to identify the prior high or low, where is your stop?

        • fotis2 says:

          It never ceases to amaze me how deadly accurate 2 simle trend lines can be in all timeframes if I was confined to only one indicator to trade off this would be it.

    • gasman88 says:

      Has any bull market ever peaked in December? I don’t think so, so if we make a new high towards the end of the year I’m expecting more highs in 2015

    • tommyboys says:

      Rabbit didn’t “throw the towel in” – he just moved his target – AGAIN lol. If/when everyone stops trying to top pick, we’ll be getting close. Likely a long way off…its apparently an addictive drug.

  26. Soodi says:

    Hi Tony,
    Now that SHORT/MEDIUM TERM: uptrend confirmed, what are the targets for SPX short and medium terms?

  27. rabbittrader1 says:

    This is the time of year to make resolutions. Many have complained of people making predictions on this site ,and my prediction for a low on Dec 26th is NOT HAPPENING . So next year I will not predict , although I will make observations. But before I sign off tonight I would like to point out that I did observe that the 9.2 year stock market cycle (combined with the 41 week cycle was due to top in November 2014. (It carried over to Dec. 5th at 2079.47. This is not surprising for such a long CYCLE(s) Even today the market could not exceed that Cycle High. It will be of great interest to see if indeed that high is exceeded tomorrow or this week. Of course there are great implications, at least in my mind , if we do not exceed 2079.47. Anyway I am having my Xmas Cream Sherry, (imported from Spain), and enjoying the . warm fire, and thinking of friends (departed) and family Again , to all a very merry Christmas. R.

  28. Caldaro what data coming out that could lead to volatility. Market only cares about interest rates.

  29. hrmny358 says:

    Anybody have thoughts on why ES traded at such a narrow discount all day and now it is back to -6. Traded -1 to -2 all day. Significant? Also $NYAD cumulative putting on LH so far.

    • allen1929 says:

      I also wonder whats going on with the spread between spx esh

    • scottycj1 says:

      The Futres traders could not goad program traders into buying stock

      • fibs-R-us says:

        I noticed the same thing, futures only a 1 point discount all day, then in the final march up at the end of the day, it was like the cash just had to drag the futures kicking and screaming along with it. Reminds me of when i was in a hurry and had to drag my kids.

  30. makiori says:

    Hi Tony,
    I am not trying to be pedantic, but I am rather ask this question for the sake of clarity.
    I have the ATH @2079.47 and today we traded up to 2078.78 and closed @2078.54.
    Am I looking at the wrong data?

  31. llerias7 says:

    This minor 3 points to spx 2100´s this month…after all is just a tiny push of 1%-2%…First days of January 2150…then a correction (minor 4) and a final run to 2250 (minor 5/March).

  32. simpleiam says:

    Thanks Tony!
    Always interesting.

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