Friday update

SHORT TERM: no gap opening – streak broken, DOW +27

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.5%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 2061 close. The market continued to rally until it hit SPX 2071 just past 10am. Then a pullback to SPX 2062 followed by 12:30, before the market tried to rally again. Heading into the last hour the SPX hit 2078, then pulled to end the week at 2071.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.35%. Bonds gained 6 ticks, Crude rallied $3.60, Gold slipped $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 2070 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 and 2131 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 46.9% v 47.7%.

The market opened higher today, broke the 9 day gap opening streak, and rallied to SPX 2078. The market has now rallied 5.0% in just three days. Thus far, we see a small five wave sequence off the SPX 1973 low, a decent pullback, and now a larger five wave sequence off that SPX 1992 low. This advance certainly looks impulsive. As soon as we get an uptrend confirmation we will drop the Major wave 4 scenario in favor of the Minor wave 3 of Intermediate v scenario. This alone has future implications which will be covered in the weekend update. Short term support is at the 2070 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 and 2131 pivots. Short term momentum remains overbought. Happy Holidays!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probably underway

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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36 Responses to Friday update

  1. torehund says:

    Tony, I am not complaining about the markets, the SEC doing what it has to do and so on. BUT then at a time of Things going forewards I expect these 1000 X moves, not phony 2 perent moves ater it went Down a 1 0000 0000 times,, come on…dont let sec be rude and halt something….ok lets see what ch .mas brings, dont dissapoint us all.

  2. M1 says:

    I am concern abt silver weakness .It needs to rally soon. before the end of the year.

  3. M1 says:

    Thanks Tony
    Surprised by the rally ? =)
    NAZ is now at my target (suggested just three days ago). 4750 -4800. So I expect NAZ minor wave B ending soon.
    However, this rally has been so impresive that I am giving a 30% chance that 4547 could be the bottom of NAZ interm wave ii and this rally the first structure of interm wave iii.
    Have a great weekend

  4. Any chance th Fed follows Caldaro’s count? I mean every time the poor guy calls a P4 or confirms a downtrend the ALGOS immediately kick into gear and goose the market to make him look like the Armando Benitez of baseball. Caldaro happy hollidays my friend.

  5. Tony – did the indices witness a volume spike today? If today volume readings are correct then there is a very high probability that Santa is going to be bi-polar (nice and naughty) this year
    Nice Santa – has granted us with a nice X-mas rally (about done)
    Naughty Santa – gets a nasty hangover from eggnog during the X-mas Eve party and forgot to deliver the kids presents on X-mas Day, hence, putting everyone in a sour mood for the rest of the year.

  6. rabbittrader1 says:

    Wabbit was WRONG. .( Except we still have to see a print on the S&P tape above 2079.) Monday will tell us . I wish all a very merry XMAS R

  7. fishonhook says:

    “As soon as we get an uptrend confirmation ” I guess that will be the time to short again!

  8. vivelaamo says:

    I’ll keep my longs open for the continued Santa rally I think. Cheers Tony.

  9. fotis2 says:

    Thanks Tony any strength in a wave1 ending possibility today?

  10. Most important update we need is when does Yellen speak next? keep it simple

  11. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony! These latest Uptrends and Downtrends seem to be on steroids (maybe Viagra?). Seems very unusual? Is this part of the possible future implications for the bull? Or, just a bunch of bull? 😉

  12. Thanks Tony – thought that was a bullish close.. Take it up to the previous high, hang about a little to tempt in the shorts, then gap up over them a day or two later.. Never fails 😉

  13. There will be no Santa rally

    …..last famous words….

  14. ABchart says:

    Thanks Tony. I think the SPX is very overbought in the short term. A consolidation to 2050 is required. This is even more likely that the FDAX remained 100 points below its level this morning.

  15. simpleiam says:

    Thank you, Tony. Great calls!
    See you in the AM with my cup of java.

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