Monday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW -100

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.9%. Europe opened lower and lost 2.3%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 the NY FED was reported contracting: -3.6 v +10.2, then at 9:15 Industrial production was reported higher: +1.3% v -0.1%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2014, rallied to 2019 in the opening minutes, and then began to pullback. The SPX had closed at 2002 on Friday. At 10am the NAHB index was reported lower: 57 v 58, and the SPX hit 1998. After a rally to SPX 2007 by 10:30, the SPX dropped to 1982 by noon. After that it started to rally. At 1pm the SPX hit 2002, pulled back to 1991 just past 2pm, rallied to 2001 by 2:30, then dropped to close at 1990.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.00%. Bonds lost 9 ticks, Crude dropped $2.60, Gold slumped $29, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: Housing starts and Building permits at 8:30, plus the FED starts its two day FOMC meeting.

The market gapped up at the open today, hit the 2019 exactly, and then headed lower for the rest of the day in very choppy trading. In fact, we have not seen this type of wild swinging activity since nearing the downtrend low in mid-October. The short term wave pattern took on a life of its own after today’s SPX 2019 high with a series of overlapping waves down to 1982. The very short term count we are now tracking suggests one more lower low tomorrow, and then a decent rally. Short term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 pivot and SPX 2056. Short term momentum rallied at the open off Friday’s positive divergence, then vacillated above/below oversold for the rest of the day. Day traders market – best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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222 Responses to Monday update

  1. The RCH on the 2 minute chart played out perfectly since the measured target was 1973 on spx

  2. simpleiam says:

    Naturally, right at the close…

  3. jeffbalin says:

    Wow, last minute Spx lower low?

  4. rc1269 says:

    1982 close with a big gap up tomorrow…?
    a litte IHS action with + divs on 60min RSI and MACD

  5. lunker1 says:

    Hi Tony, what degree is that green a on the 60 minute chart? Thanks

  6. y332 says:

    Mr. Caldaro,

    What probability do you assign to the September high ending Primary 3, the October low being A, the December high being B, and the current decline representing the C leg of Primary 4?

    Thank you.

  7. Tony

    If oil bottomed today , what is the next you see on oil chart ? Rally to 70-80 again or new highs above 100 ?

  8. CB says:

    Thanks Tony.

    Mike Paulenoff’s comments + $SPX chart ICYMI today

  9. lunker1 says:

    SPX Int a of B had a virtual touch of the 60min 34EMA now at 2017 falling. Perhaps Int B will touch the 89EMA at 2036 falling, Or only make it back to the daily EMA’s 2028/32

  10. Daily MACD currently printing negative numbers for $SPX, $DJIA, and $rut. I think today is the first day for that since the selloff of a few months ago.

  11. lunker1 says:

    Today’s action is somewhat similar to October 15 and 16

  12. mjtplayer says:

    Looks like the move off this mornings low to the mid-day high was minor A, now dropping in minor B; the entire int B rally could be over in the just a couple days. Unless something else is going on and we make new lows….

  13. rc1269 says:

    if i didn’t know any better i’d almost think that all the big rallies the last 10 days were being sold very willingly

  14. kvilia says:

    Not even thinking of switching from my short positions here. B will be weak, or so I hope.

  15. Last 5 trading days, markets have moved about 280 handles on SPX. I wish I were successful in catching bottoms and tops.

    • Your model is amazing . I wish you would comment every 30 minutes with an update.
      You must be killing it . It would be best if you could comment every 15 minutes. I am lost without your astute analysis.

      • Darkness,
        When did I say my model is amazing. All I am saying is “I wish”.

        Is English your sixth language/ I remember you posting “f*** idiot” in some other language some days before in response to “Rabiittrader1” comments

  16. So Tony

    Lets say a possible move up above 2019 pivot to maybe 2060-2070 pivot. This should end wave B before a wave C lower right ?

  17. manunidhi21 says:

    Namaste tony!

    Is int b done at 2017 if it closes below 2000 or too early to comment ?

  18. rabbittrader1 says:

    Uncle 10 Just testing the waters Also not too many of those CLF (not CDL futures contracts .were offered at 1 cent.

  19. scottycj1 says:

    A close below todays low will open up a 80 to 90 point decline …..very quickly

  20. Walter Crane says:

    Guys I have shared in the past, and it got changed or aborted for months. Costs me too much money to share it unfortunately. Anyways, I seem to be two days off on the tops, pretty much bank on the longs. I can live with that, even though sweating in the winter for two days on all in tvix buys can be discomforting at times.

  21. blackjak100 says:

    40 pts higher in 2 hrs suggest the rally has another leg to go – I’m looking to add sub 2000 for a short trade.

    Thinking it was a of B.

  22. rabbittrader1 says:

    Correction, scotty, afarside Bought 400 contracts(not 40) of CDL560futures ,each 1.000 BBLS. Times .6 cents equals $24,000. R.

    • uncle10 says:

      only $24,000 ?? with your stories I was expecting something like $100,000 + ….
      silly rabbit trix are for kids😉

  23. Tony

    You are not afraid of the strong seasonality between now and new year ?

  24. John Arella says:

    spx updated count, rally over at 2016-2040, then market heading lower, rally may be finish now

  25. rabbittrader1 says:

    scotty, afarside Bought 40futurescalls . made $24,000 ‘ Commissions (both sides under $40.00

  26. alexhartley1 says:

    Taking Tony’s main count on the SPX I see a high for minute b of minor c of Intermediate A coming tomorrow, 17th into the FOMC meeting around the 2019 pivot Tony has so kindly provided. By expiry we should be dropping into the 24th in minute c, minor c and the end of Intermediate A. I’d imagine 1956 pivot holds it.

    End of month strength should then take us higher into 7th Jan 2015 and the whole of Intermediate B.

    From there I think it’s quite possible the slightly scarier Intermediate C starts taking us further down (perhaps to complete the 10% drop Tony suggested for Major 4).

    Major 5 takes us to new highs into near middle of year 2200+/- and a PIII top.

    Hope this works out then it will have helped.

  27. mjtplayer says:

    Treasuries still rallying, VIX higher and over 21 – it dipped below 20 briefly when the DOW was 225+ but couldn’t hold. Junk bonds made a new 52-week low this morning then came off nicely, but are now fading. All the hallmarks of just an oversold bounce, could last another day or 2 but with limited upside above today’s high. Certainly doesn’t look like anything sustainable just yet…

  28. Hi Tony

    Could today bounce be the 30+ bounce before going lower ?

  29. rabbittrader1 says:

    Bought Jan. $60 crude oil call options this A.M for $0.01 at $54 crude, sold 2 hrs later for $0.07 at $57 crude Letssee that was 7 times my investment . Made up for my SPX shorts which may expire worthless R

  30. thecustomer14 says:

    Big thanks Tony. I keep reminding myself of the pivot pong we’ve seen over the past few months and your call for the 1973 pivot plus the ensuing rally was obviously spot on and helped me end up on the right side of a couple of nice trades today. Cheers!

  31. Its not a tough call to forecast a 38% fib pivot at 1980, a B wave rally and C wave after… this is basic Elliott Wave ABC theory for a wave 2 gang. 1920 likely on tap in January, but Xmas season is here first for the B wave

  32. Nailed it… Please do not sign up for my website, Im only posting this to show our count from yesterday.

  33. Lee X says:

    Hey Tony,
    Nice job sir ! And thanks for everything you do here.
    I’m off the grid

    Happy חנוכה and Merry Christmas to all (again😉 )

  34. sopriscap says:

    Great call Tony,


  35. mjtplayer says:

    Was this mornings low in WTI at $53.60 the bottom (for now)?

  36. rc1269 says:

    well Tony, there’s 30 pts off the low for ya

  37. fotis2 says:

    Nice, open the good stuff tonight Viva la bull!!

  38. Well heres the rally, I just need to figure out when to go short again…. Any thoughts???? hmmmmm

  39. ABchart says:

    SPX follows the DAX this morning. Now the market is quit balanced here.

    • mjtplayer says:

      SPX is following credit, oil & Europe. All have reversed off their morning lows, thus the SPX rally.

      • ABchart says:

        Agree with you MJT. I wrote this morning:

        ABchart says:
        December 16, 2014 at 3:50 am
        Nice bounce on the DAX and the CAC at the moment after lower; some signals of an imminent rebound swing from tonight or tomorrow until the end of the year.

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