Friday update

SHORT TERM: fifth gap opening this week, DOW -316

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened lower and plunged 2.7%. US index futures were lower overnight as well. At 8:30 the PPI was reported lower: -0.2% v +0.2%. The market gapped down at the open for the fourth day this week. After it opened at SPX 2023 it rallied to 2032 by 10am. At 10am Consumer sentiment was reported at its highest level since 2007. Nevertheless, the market started to decline again. By noon the SPX hit 2012, with some 5-6 point swings along the way. Then it started to rally. The rally lasted until 1:30 when the SPX hit 2025. Then the market dropped for the rest of the day, closing at the SPX 2002 low.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 1.70%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.15%. Bonds gained 26 ticks, Crude dropped $2.20, Gold slipped $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Last night the FED reported a decline in the Monetary base: $3.738tn v $3.813tn. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 47.7% v 47.6%.

The market gapped down again today hitting SPX 2023. It then rallied to 2032, before hitting a low for the day at 2002. At SPX 2012 it looked like we had five waves down from SPX 2056, and we labeled it Minute wave a of Minor wave c. The rally that followed was kind of small for an expected Minute wave b rally, as it only hit SPX 2025. This now confirmed downtrend has been unfolding as expected. However, the waves within trends do have a tendency to extend from time to time. And, an extension of Minute wave a/ Minor c appears underway. More on this in the weekend update. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend underway

LONG TERM: bull market



About tony caldaro

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60 Responses to Friday update

  1. iThinker says:

    Reblogged this on INVEST-O-MONEY.

  2. rabbittrader1 says:

    Also, we have no one here at 2:30 AM So is anyone interested in investing in my idea to produce a transducer that will enable people to read Books while they sleep (and remember it)? Please let me know if you have any interest. R.

    • eldorado62 says:

      Even were that possible, it sounds like an idea of dubious merit considering the kind of essential biochemical activity that needs to occur, and can only occur, during sleep

  3. My GS short worked perfectly this week, but I think it is just about start.

    Posted it a few times.

  4. rabbittrader1 says:

    stcoleridge Re your question : I am a MacLeod on my mothers side; from the Isle of Skye. My cousin, Sir John MacLeod is CHIEF of the CLAN . He resides in DUNVEGAN castl;e which was built in 1237 AD. No more to be said tonight R

  5. ewmarkets says:

    If you compare market action since Black Friday with that of 2013, you’ll see they are extremely similar. Market topped on 2013 Black Friday, made a ABC down move that ended two weeks later on Friday. Had some hesitation the beginning of the following week and a spike down, then off to new highs by the end of the third week. If market follows this script, next week, being the third week from Black Friday, will close higher than spx 2003, possibly retracing all of the drops this week.

  6. rabbittrader1 says:

    FRANCESCA CIARDI I do not know where you are , but ,I would love to come to see you and discuss Elliot Wave with you. I go by Rabbit , but I will give you my e-mail ,which is : R.S.V.P.

  7. Francesca Ciardi says:

    I do know that this will be an unpopular post but have to say doesn’t matter how I look at the chart, any timeframe, the last wave from 1820 to high seems incomplete. As well as there have been 5 wave on the last wave, the whole had only 3 waves and doubt i could honestly affirm were 3 since practically the daily chart had one only single wave. It has been a fanny move and looking at it closely I see this probability:
    1) 1991 to 1904 was a A, to 2019 a B and to 1820 a C and all of the 4th. Followed by this possibly 1 up still incomplete, and we are now on the 4th of 1 having already almost completed the ABC. (the last spike of the today move was so strong to let me think of the classic last spike of a correction that catch the mass of bears to use them to squeeze indecently. In fact is very possible to gap big down on Monday, catch inn some more and reverse blowing all stops and go for the 5th to new high before revers again for wave 2.

  8. fishonhook says:

    Hey guys I am proud to say I’m at break-even. give or take $100. Made some money on the drop to 1812. lost twice that much on the failed B and now am back to where i started. After a whole bunch of trading, so much that my discount broker called me and told me I now eligible for the reduced ‘active’ trader rate ( also known as ‘sucker’s’ rate)

    have a good week-end. Definitely single malt tonight. May even give the dog some.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Well Done fishonhook.

    • afarsid says:

      That’s awesome fish! I’m in the same boat although I’ve only made back half what I lost. Hoping to break even next week. What platform do you trade on and if you don’t mind sharing what equities are you trading?
      Thanks Tony et al!

      • fishonhook says:

        AFS- I am trading the usual suspects. TVIX. TZA and various puts. Got a good deal on some EEM to short which I cashed out of 80% today. I thought the point of trading was to make money, but it seems like break-even is success enough for me!

        thanks Fiona.

    • fotis2 says:

      Nice Fish try to keep it up when i started trading
      Stage1 Blowing the account
      Stage2 Breaking even
      Stage3 Making money
      Im in Stage2 now

  9. ABchart says:

    Hello Tony! and thank you for your hard work.
    What will happens after minor C? an intermediate B? if so, what is its target in your opinion?
    Thanks in advance.

  10. torehund says:

    Good weekend to Tony and all on this board, Thursdays and Fridays is just to heavy for the bulls to master yet. All kinds of new worries take hold after the Ebola threath left office, how about torture, and another debth ceiling, my misery list extends.
    Just forget about Christmas altogether, get some old Mecano kit (all old boys have had it) With screws and bolts and make a booty like tree. This Santa doesnt even deserve a plasic nor an aluminium tree….Whats mentally wrong With folks these days, or is it just the media..

  11. M1 says:

    Thanks Tony
    I am adjusting the count. NAZ Minor wave a is still unfolding.

  12. blackjak100 says:

    Most laugh but if everyone just got short after the 2nd HO signal in both Sept & Oct, life would be good….right JK? However, they don’t tell you when to exit.

  13. JW says:

    Interesting that SOX, BIB (biotech), NDX and IWM were each down only around 1% today

  14. John Arella says:

    My count for spx, bad week coming next week, we are in the beginnings of the 3rd wave down, will be ugly

  15. How fun is this? Buy low, sell high. Well, I told you that the first part of Dec is always weak. Watch what happens next. Oil getting killed due to margin selling/tax loss selling. Santelli says $55.50 by Dec 22 should be the bottom.

  16. so….sometime we fall……

  17. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Good Weekend All

  18. nicola2910 says:

    Tony,.. please put in the week end report what % drop would be needed To have a wave IV drop to make it official .. Thank you Nicola ..

  19. rabbittrader1 says:

    Some seem to be UNBELIEVING that we could get to 1694 SPX by Dec 24th. Try a couple days of 700 point drops in the DOW Mon. & Tues. followed by 500 point drops and we will be at SPX 1750 by Dec. 19th. It is only another 60 points the next week to take us to the 1690 SPX. THAT IS HOW WE GET THERE !! R.

  20. gasman88 says:

    Off topic: Shanghai index has gone up over 30% in less than a month! All on the back of more stimulus hopes and despite drastically slowing economy. Markets are addicted to cheap money, irrational exuberance?$SSEC&p=D&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p16666974218&a=195754185

  21. elmer510 says:

    I thought perhaps such a strong sell off could¨ be the end of minor c,.
    And 2079 – 2024 ¨and 2056 -2002 have a good symmetry.
    But Tony is the boss.

  22. rc1269 says:

    thanks Tony. other asset classes have been dancing to a much different tune for some time now. i wonder if stocks just might be about to get with the program.
    cheers have a great weekend good sir. -rc

  23. llerias7 says:

    So we should expect minute b an minute c (?Monday trade) to finish Minor C. That should complete Major 4 down? Around 1980´s?…

  24. lunker1 says:

    Thanks Tony. If 2079 was minor 3 the 38.2 retrace is 2003. 2056-55 is 2001. This still could be minor 4.

  25. simpleiam says:

    Thanks Tony.
    Will see you with my cup of Community in the morning.

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