Monday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -106

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.9%. US index futures were lower overnight and the market gapped down to SPX 2069 at the open. The SPX had closed at 2075 on Friday. After the open the market rallied to SPX 2076, closing the gap, and then headed lower again. Just past 2pm the SPX hit 2054. A rally to SPX 2063 followed by 3pm, then a dip into the close ended the day at 2060.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.65%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.80%. Bonds gained 9 ticks, Crude lost $2.85, Gold rallied $13, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: Wholesale inventories at 10am, and a FED open board meeting at 3pm.

The market gapped down at the open today, rallied to fill the gap, and then headed down to SPX 2054 before rallying into the close. The 5 minute chart for Minor 5, posted over the weekend, has now had a full retracement of the 5th Minute wave from SPX 2066. Also the rising lower trend line of the Minor 5 diagonal triangle, we have been tracking, was broken to the downside today as well. These patterns suggest the entire uptrend, from SPX 1821, may have completed on Friday at SPX 2079. Right in the Fibonacci resistance zone of SPX 2078-2084.

Typically after an uptrend ends, there is first a selloff, followed by a failed rally, and then the downtrend takes control. Today we could have had that selloff. If the market rallies into the upper 2060’s tomorrow and then breaks today’s low, a downtrend would likely be underway. Short term support is at the important SPX 2050 and the 2019 pivot, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum declined to extremely oversold after Friday’s negative divergence. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend may have topped

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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181 Responses to Monday update

  1. gasman88 says:

    Today’s US Congress hearing about the CIA torture network makes me think that few years from now there will be similar investigation on how the FED was propping this market by illegally buying stocks.

  2. Not sure if there are any stock BABA watchers out there, but first pullback to the 50 SMA on the daily is often the place where money managers decide to add/initiate longs.

  3. wpmiii says:

    Tony have you changed the count during this session.

  4. fishonhook says:

    All I can say that was one hell of a bear trap! Gotta admit I have two claws stuck in the trap

  5. Lee X says:

    I’m the best trader of all time

  6. mjtplayer says:

    Wow, Greece getting smoked. Looks like the market remembered they’re broke and need to purge the debt before any sustainable recovery can take place. No economy is sustainable long-term with gov’t debt at 150% of GDP; too many economic resources going to taxes for interest payments.

    Until they write-off the debt, they’re slaves to the EU & IMF, looking for the next loan/bailout/handout to buy more time – but time for what?

  7. lunker1 says:

    John Arella,
    This is what I saw you post.

    Oct 11 your Primary count said “40%-45% correction to long term channel so get out of stocks now!!”

    Oct 13 your Alt count said it would be invalidated if the channel broke….and then it did. So channel was invalidated. But then later you said it wasn’t.

    • lunker1 says:

      John Arella says:
      October 11, 2014 at 9:25 pm
      By Next October 2015 we should be at 9500 for (a) of E of triangle formation, then a rally should give us b of E and then down to 6000 for c of e in 2016-2017. Should buy the SDOW until Dow Jones hits 9500.

    • John Arella says:

      Lunker1 these are long term potential patterns that still are not invalidated by the trend channels, one was an expanding triangle which you posted and the other is a potential diagonal fifth wave that is also not invalidated. Both of these long term patterns can still occur and are not yet invalidated given the support and resistance channels. My short term outlook that I posted was the ones in September 28, and October 20 showing the short term outlook and they were pretty accurate. You are fast to judge but you never have any projections because your just follow others and have no insight to give except to judge and pick on anything you see to place yourself above others. Really sad if you ask me. Everyone knows my short term projections cause I am not scared to share my work but you only try to find errors to make yourself look good and even minor errors are jumped on. I think that’s pretty sick. This again proves that you are jealous and can’t handle someone else’s success. You even act as a sheriff in a forum that’s not even yours. See a shrink about that problem.

  8. They say a picture is worth a thousand words: “Bull up, Gas down!”

  9. Joey Duke says:

    That was a bit more of a probe down this morning than I was expecting. It will be interesting to see how we close. Now looking for 2080 +/- 5 over the next 2-4 days. Though I would not be too surprised if the move comes up short. Either way, still think we move to 1990 by year end.

Comments are closed.