SHORT TERM: choppy day – new high, DOW -13
Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.0%. Europe opened lower but lost 1.2% after the ECB had nothing new to report. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 297k v 313k. The market opened four points below yesterday’s SPX 2074 close, bounced back to 2074, then headed lower. Around 10:30, when Europe was closing, the market hit SPX 2062 and then started to rally. Around 12:30 the market made a new high at SPX 2077, then pulled back again. In the last hour of trading the SPX hit 2066, then bounced to close at 2072.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.05%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude slipped 65 cents, Gold slid $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2070 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 and 2131 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly Payrolls (est. +245k) at 8:30 along with the Trade deficit; then Factory orders at 10am and Consumer credit at 3pm.
The market opened lower today, hit SPX 2062, then rallied to a new high by one point before pulling back again. Clearly the market is having trouble clearing to OEW 2070 pivot range, as today was its fifth failed attempt in the past two weeks. We continue to count five Minor waves up from the SPX 1821 downtrend low: 1898-1878-2046-2030-2077 thus far. From the 2030 Minor 4 low we can now count a couple of three wave advances: 2056-2040-2076, and from 2050: 2076-2062-2077. This choppiness may suggest a diagonal triangle Minor 5th wave may be forming. The 2070 pivot has been tough resistance, there is more overhead resistance at the SPX 2078-2084 Fibonacci cluster and the 2085 pivot. A break below SPX 2050 would certainly increase the probabilities that a diagonal has occurred, and the uptrend has ended. Short term support is at SPX 2050 and SPX 2040, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum hit oversold today, and then bounced to above neutral. Best to your trading the Payrolls report!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market