Thursday update

SHORT TERM: choppy day – new high, DOW -13

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.0%. Europe opened lower but lost 1.2% after the ECB had nothing new to report. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 297k v 313k. The market opened four points below yesterday’s SPX 2074 close, bounced back to 2074, then headed lower. Around 10:30, when Europe was closing, the market hit SPX 2062 and then started to rally. Around 12:30 the market made a new high at SPX 2077, then pulled back again. In the last hour of trading the SPX hit 2066, then bounced to close at 2072.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.05%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude slipped 65 cents, Gold slid $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2070 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 and 2131 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly Payrolls (est. +245k) at 8:30 along with the Trade deficit; then Factory orders at 10am and Consumer credit at 3pm.

The market opened lower today, hit SPX 2062, then rallied to a new high by one point before pulling back again. Clearly the market is having trouble clearing to OEW 2070 pivot range, as today was its fifth failed attempt in the past two weeks. We continue to count five Minor waves up from the SPX 1821 downtrend low: 1898-1878-2046-2030-2077 thus far. From the 2030 Minor 4 low we can now count a couple of three wave advances: 2056-2040-2076, and from 2050: 2076-2062-2077. This choppiness may suggest a diagonal triangle Minor 5th wave may be forming. The 2070 pivot has been tough resistance, there is more overhead resistance at the SPX 2078-2084 Fibonacci cluster and the 2085 pivot. A break below SPX 2050 would certainly increase the probabilities that a diagonal has occurred, and the uptrend has ended. Short term support is at SPX 2050 and SPX 2040, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum hit oversold today, and then bounced to above neutral. Best to your trading the Payrolls report!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

This entry was posted in Updates and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

116 Responses to Thursday update

  1. pooch77 says:

    Switch to cash,could not bteak 18000

  2. jrtrader25 says:

    Liquidity in emerging markets appears to have dried up. The correlation of eem with fxi has been almost lock step over the past 10 years. But with the recent strong up move in fxi, eem has stayed flat. Something is brewing for sure.

    • torehund says:

      Money running to the US, they are having difficuties seing their bonds With low yields, more so by the day. Thats where you would see interest rate hikes first, I woud assume…Creating monstrous stagflation.

  3. uncle10 says:

    Thanks Tony. Have a great weekend all.

  4. lbspytrader says:

    Prechter says the top of the “Super Cycle Bull Market” is in this past week. Should I add again.

  5. fotis2 says:

    Any Forex guys on board? USD/JPY looks like it goes over 124.0 next is 140.0 crazy bullish chart that one but looks like quite a bit of resistance 121.0-124.0 level

    • torehund says:

      Same on USD/NOK could appericiate 25 percent in a hurry.

    • hrmny358 says:

      IMO there will be resistance in the 124.75-125.75 range. June ’07 and Dec ’02 highs. Right now it is pushing through the .618 of 148-75 move.
      Look at $/Mex too. It is testing ’08 crisis levels.

    • uncle10 says:

      any rational funnymental work puts fair value around 140, but they always way over shoot…my target is 200. agree 120-125 should be resistance.

  6. elmer510 says:

    Are new ATHs in accordance with an Ending Diagonal at SPX ?
    It means the upper resistance line of the diagonal is slowly rising, so no big jumps are expected?

    • YES ending diagonal can happen here… Many will think I’m crazy ( most here already do)but we could still be in a expanded B wave off of 1820, wave B of an expanded flat has a range of 1.236 or 1.382 which in this case tops out at 2095 max. Another possibility Primary 5 started at 1820 and we are in final stages of Bull Market.

    • sweinv says:

      E.D is one possibilite. It looks like we can have a throw over today. RSI (daily) looks weak at the new ATH.

    • tradeanimal says:

      A break below the ED would initially target the 2050 area – which looks like the start of the ED.

  7. FiveStars says:

    First significant pullback or correction will not come until 2nd/3rd week of Jan 2015, I think by then SPX will be trading well above 2100 (2140-2150).

  8. jrtrader25 says:

    Remember folks, market peaks usually occur near economic peaks. I have a gut wrenching feeling 6 to 12 months from now investors will be saying “oh we didn’t see that market move coming, everything looked so good.” Warn your family, friends, and neighbors. These are the people who will be devastated the most by wall street. I’m not worried about the people on investment blogs, as we are nimble and smart enough to get out of the way of the coming carnage and profit from it. Just my 2 cents.

    • jrtrader, you say ” I’m not worried about the people on investment blogs, as we are nimble and smart enough to get out of the way of the coming carnage and profit from it. ” My 2 cents is Greed, Complacency, Arrogance, and Ego will also affect these so called nimble and smart traders. If fraudstreet doesn’t crash it from the top they will do it 400 s&p points lower when the so called smart money buys back in looking for Primary V to new highs. The house almost always wins in the end if you stick around long enough.

      • chrisk44342 says:

        newbie, that was a very insightful comment you made there. My 2 cents is that most so-called nimble traders lack the proper training and insight to get it right. Always looking for tops, always counting on perceived wave counts to bail them out. It goes on and on. This blog is all about market context, yet most come here looking to trade based on the information. It’s really sad I think.

    • chrisk44342 says:

      actuallyI worry more about the people on investment blogs 🙂

    • ABchart says:

      I warned my grandmother at the moment 😉

  9. mjtplayer says:

    Spot VIX in the 11’s – no fear whatsoever

  10. torehund says:

    Putin- Nat gas- think its ripe…NOW

  11. jeffbalin says:

    I would think the naz is going to break 4810.86 before this current uptrend is over. If so, the current possible ED on the Spx is not going to end at 2080 ish?

  12. klopharmd says:

    Sell signal still going Scotty? Not antagonizing, just want to know.

  13. mjtplayer says:

    Tony – what do you think Putin’s next move will be? Pretty toxic speech yesterday, no signs of backing down. Weather is getting colder, time to start playing with the nat gas spickets?

  14. Yesterday the DAX spiked 0.5% as soon as Draghi uttered his first words but before he said anything of note. (Let’s take out the stops first.) The index then sold off 250 points not for the first time in this uptrend. It closed the day with an outside reversal to the downside on the daily chart that encapsulated not just 1 but the last 6 trading days. The CAC went 1 better with its outside reversal accounting for the last 7 days of trading. These type of technical reversals of course mean nothing in the current market environment with both indices back above where they were at the start of the ECB press conference.

  15. buddyglove says:

    Bullish set-up and trade from 01/dec appears to be working well…targeting1852/56.
    Also of note is a potential IHS setting up. Good Health/Fortune to all
    Dow Fut hourly :-

  16. mjtplayer says:

    New high in the DOW, SPX is close; on target for highs today on the full moon.

  17. lunker1 says:

    Ascending triangle 26+76 = 2102

  18. pooch77 says:

    Now that those silly sellers are gone up we go.Rut up nearly 1%

  19. H D says:

    Best year for jobs since 1999, funny they bring up 1999. Fundamentals catching up to the charts again.

    Healthcare still alive after 50+ months of ACA? over 1 million jobs added to sector and 15M+ Americans covered. USA!

    • lunker1 says:

      HD that’s a pretty big rose colored glasses snow job buddy. The Jobs had nothing to do with ACA Unless it was from administration of ridiculously detailed government policy and procedures. Between that, Medicare and malpractice suits/insurance it’s a mess. The best and brightest are avoiding the medical profession like the plague. Next step is for the government to just run healthcare period. Before ACA uncovered people were still sick and went to the hospitals and got free care and they still do whether they have ACA or not.

      • H D says:

        just data lunker, no ideology. If you think people are avoiding the profession look up medical school and nursing school enrollments/ waitlists. ATH’s again just data.

      • lunker1 says:

        My solution would’ve been to first try free preventative healthcare for all. The problem was and still is the uncovered go to the emergency room for basic care and clog up the system at huge expense.

      • lunker1 says:

        The jobs are there because the aging baby boomers need more medical care and we’re keeping people alive longer.

      • lunker1 says:

        I said the best are avoiding the profession. Because they are smart to avoid the ridiculous amount of headaches it takes to be a doctor or nurse these days. The government is up everyone’s butt

      • lunker1 says:

        Also forgot the drug and prescription pill addicts that make up at least 10% of the hospital population. The government regulates that these “frequent fliers” can’t be turned away. If they say they have pain then they have to be treated.

      • H D says:

        no matter if your glass is half full or half empty, there is clearly room for more beer.

        I’m familiar w all the FOX news talking points. I don’t think the best are avoiding medicine. USA trains the World Dr’s because we are the best. If colleges have wait lists they aren’t going to lower their standards, if anything they will raise them.
        We’re getting a little bit away from the market though.

        I do think there is a potential trade in healthcare if GOP defunds ACA, closes the gov’t again, etc.

        The jobs# today was a home run, the whole year of jobs#”s was a home run month after month of home runs, the entire recovery has been a home run. USA

        Gotta run all, have a great w/e GO AZ WILDCATS!

  20. scottycj1 says:

    Looks like the ED is playing out nicely

  21. pooch77 says:

    Boom 320k

  22. pooch77 says:

    Should hit 18000 today

  23. sweinv says:

    Hi Tony,
    According to the E.D. Yesterdays low SPX 2062 was it wave 4 and now will be one more last wave up?

  24. xela0 says:

    IMO both Euro and Gold/Silver printed a tradeable low.

  25. fotis2 says:

    Looking at the chart from the day we reversed to the upside one can confidently say that the day trader that came on top of this unexplainable? upward swing is the one that just kept on buying the dips on the basis of following the money only and pluging his ears on all and any outside noise focusing only on the tape.It wasnt me and im sure many others missed the bus as well.Lesson learned.

    • fotis2 says:

      A swing trader following Tony’s upside 2070 target would also be smiling now so it comes down to faith in yourself and what you see and faith in the count.

    • buddyglove says:

      Yep, thats the way to do it, just plug your ears to outside noise and follow price, nothing “unexplainable” about it at all Gl.

  26. gasman88 says:

    From Armstrong blog: Why central bankers are buying stocks:
    This is the reason behind his Dow 40K call


    They will probably rig the jobs numbers, but they have to make sure its not too high, FED intervention. Or make sure they are not too low, market will drop.

    Something tells me they will make the numbers JUST RIGHT, or ON TARGET.

  28. JW says:

    NYMO is making lower highs and lower lows just like it did before the big drop in October. Coincidence or is there something to this?$NYMO&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p92262415321&a=372061438&r=1417733332520&cmd=print

  29. mjtplayer says:

    Nice EOD ramp in the final :30min; 50 Dow points. That’s mutual fund buying on the close i.e. retail money buying.

  30. Gary Lewis says:

    The failed three-day test of the high didn’t work out but you can bet big, with confidence, that today’s three-day test of the low will mark the launching platform for a big move up. Probably to 210 on SPY to close out the week at overbought levels.

  31. randomacts4 says:

    The Major Bradley Turn Date of November 20 was apparently a non-event. The remaining 2 turn dates for 2014, both minor turns, are December 10 and 26.

    Tony, please forgive my previous comment containing a poor, slightly ribald, misguided limerick.

  32. M1 says:

    NAZ is at a perfect point to start wave c down

  33. M1 says:

    …a short term inflection point ?

  34. klopharmd says:

    Sell signal canceled?

  35. fotis2 says:

    As always thank you kindly Tony for the rest of us Bad Moon Rising.

Comments are closed.