Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: market drifts higher, DOW +33

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened higher but finished mixed. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:15 the ADP index was reported lower: 208k v 230k. The market opened two points above yesterday’s SPX 2067 close, dipped back to 2067, then started to drift higher. At 10am ISM services were reported higher: 59.3 v 57.1. At 11am the SPX hit 2073, pulled back to 2069 by 12:30, and then moved higher. At 2pm the FED released its beige book, and FED governor Brainard’s speech was released:, Around 3:30 the SPX hit 2076, its all time high, and then dipped to 2074 to end the day.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.25%. Bonds lost 2 ticks, Crude added 50 cents, Gold gained $12, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 2070 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 and 2131 pivots. Tomorrow: the ECB meets, then weekly Jobless claims at 8:30.

The market opened higher today, took out the previous day’s highs like yesterday, and continued higher with not much more than a 4 point pullback. The market has now rallied 26 points from Monday’s SPX 2050 low. This continues to suggest an extending Minor wave 5 is underway. Also of note, the DOW is in new high territory extending this five year bull market into its 69th month. This remains the third longest bull market in modern history. There are still several potential waves formations for Minor wave 5. So far it has unfolded, from the SPX 2030 Minor 4 low: 2056-2040-2076-2050-2076. Overhead resistance, should it clear the 2070 pivot, is in the 2078-2084 zone, then the 2085 pivot. Short term support remains at the SPX 2050 and SPX 2040 levels. Short term momentum is quite overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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163 Responses to Wednesday update

    • tommyboys says:

      Better move

    • tony caldaro says:

      right, and we can believe the numbers coming out of China as the absolute fact 😉

    • CB says:

      Thanks newbie..statistics, huh?
      Interesting, though, how with all that energy-intensive growth in China, crude oil price is collapsing, right?…are energy markets trading on some funny mentals these days?…or have the BRICs already switched to alt. energy?…. if so, why do they still have so much air pollution in China? .. Questions 😉

  1. pooch77 says:

    Market looks to be consolidating for new highs Friday.Dow 18000?

    • shadow305 says:

      While here in Canada the TSX is getting hammered: not just the resource stocks but the major banks too. Down 298 points or 2.0%. I question how long US markets can continue to march to their own drummer.

  2. fotis2 says:

    Ok I need some help here maybe my english isnt good enough but what i got out of almost an hour of listening to Mario is that the ECB is considering a proposal sometime in the future?next month? to buy bonds but not equities by using a system wich has not been designed yet nor do they know if or when it will be implemented.The people behind this briliant plan no one knows who they are(they are dicussing the whole thing in private) and the ECB is refusing to comment.

    • Fotis, Mario is full of crap, his hands are tied behind his back & he is up against the wall. He doesn’t have a solution, all he has is rhetoric.

      • trondack says:

        Back in Tony’s younger days, WCBers ( Western Central Bankers ) used to be concerned about popularly elected officials. Maybe ECB is concerned about Germany’s popularly elected officials.

      • tony caldaro says:

        Mario knows what needs to be done.
        But since EU monetary policy is run by politicians and not the ECB, he can do very little.
        Kind of like the pre-Volcker days in the US.

    • tony caldaro says:

      And nothing is unanimous, which is required by EU Law

    • Fotis2, You are saying about English, so wont touch that subject.

      Please look at headline carefully; “ECB said to prepare broad based QE Plan for January meeting”.

      Even during conference Mario said that. They are preparing QE plan for last two months, it was/is known. Preparing QE plan is a job of preparing documents giving reference to let us say; why Ben left and joined think tank, if QE were successful, he would have been there for 20 more years…etc.etc..”. Someone powerful connected offloaded during this.

      I don’t like to write 1000s words but will give you an example;

      During Ukraine crisis, deputy foreign minister of Russia (not Lavrov) called Kerry (that was after second sanctions of USA). The call was made during market hours. ASA, call went, connected people were told of call. Connected people panicked and started selling. SPX touched 1851. I remember that day very well. But when Kerry kept phone down, he realised Russia is talking reconciliation Connected people were informed that Russia is talking reconciliation. SPX started going up and touched 1868. PEOPLE on this board were busy plotting waves. Some said it was inter 3, some said pri 2 etc.etc. all timepass..

      get the picture??

      Next day was “Bloomberg” headline about that call.

  3. Looks like Tony’s 2085 Pivot (see chart ) could be the lotto winner unless tomorrow’s NFP data pops the balloon. In the meantime, all directive order are as follow:

  4. alexhartley1 says:

    Hi Tony – Any targets for Shanghai Composite? Do you not follow CAF anymore out of interest? Thanks

  5. gtoptions says:

    I’m not the best wave counter, but I see a near complete 5 from 2050, and 4 of 5 complete from todays low. Negative D’s on hourly & daily. Fib confluence at 2085.
    That’s what I see anyway. GLTA

  6. blackjak100 says:

    One more lunge above 2077 and structure could be complete from 1821 per the squiggles I’m tracking. I know I’ve said this before, but all these extending fifth waves suggest a quick drop after top. Extended fifth waves are usually retraced very quickly.

  7. scottycj1 says:

    That last rally there was pure minipulation……The Program Traders are being led around by their noses by whoever is piping the dance of the futures……….Futures selling at premiums to cash in the middle of the day ? …………..I’ve never seen anything so blatant.

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