friday update

SHORT TERM: post holiday shortened session, DOW +1

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight, but the market opened three points above Wednesday’s SPX 2073 close. Energy stocks, which dropped about 10%, were delayed at the open. Within the opening minutes the market dropped to SPX 2069, and then began to rally. The rally topped out at SPX 2074 around 11:30, then the market pulled back. Heading into the last hour of trading the SPX hit 2065, then spiked at the close to end the week at 2068.

For the day, last one of the month, the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.25%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude plunged $6.30, Gold dropped $30, and the USD was higher. Medium term support drops back to the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 47.7% v 47.8%. The M1-multiplier, which we have not looked at in a while, recently hit a one year high at 0.74 after hitting a multi-decade low at 0.68 in August.

The market had sort of an odd opening today as many energy stocks were delayed. The SPX hit a new bull market high at 2076, then went into pullback mode for the rest of the day. Except for a bounce in the middle to SPX 2074. Nearing the close the SPX hit 2065. This level appears to be enough to suggest Minute iii of Minor 5 completed this morning at SPX 2076, and Minute iv is underway. Hourly chart was updated. This suggests the pullback underway should hold at/above SPX 2056 for Minute iv. Then a push higher to complete Minute v of Minor 5, and possibly the uptrend. Happy holiday shopping!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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40 Responses to friday update

  1. fotis2 says:

    It will be fun and games on Monday if the Swiss decide to repatriate their gold and China data comes out negative on Sunday.Of course as always the opposite could happen however from my limited experience of the Markets what usually happens is what will hurt the majority the most.Also SPX has been going up on steadily decreasing peanut volume .

  2. DJI came within ONE POINT of a new high and was rejected there, looks like a nice double top to me, also nice non-confirmation since SPX made new high and Dow did not. Also gold/silver/copper AND oil getting crushed at the same time. Short-term bearish.

    • torehund says:

      Financialreports blog, according to my pattern on the Norwegian Crown, the dollar may appreciate 30 percent in one more or less sustained large wave 3 move. To a lesser degree most world currencies Will also take a beating; if the pattern pans out.
      It seems like the dollar is doing its final “reset” of the commodity sector participants, but not due to lack of sterength like in the recession, quite the opposite.
      Why this happens: The rest of the world didnt have the collective fear needed to deflate their own economies sufficiently during the financial crisis, then Mr Forex knocks on the door and do what the populations SHOULD have done a long time ago.
      The efficient, asset deflated countries have the Benefit of a strong currency.

      • Thanks Torehund, well said as usual. So with the expected continued strength in the dollar, how low do you see Gold and Oil going?

      • torehund says:

        I had my targets for oil either at 35 usd or 125, I have too look a bit further to see if its irreversiby going to 35 (weekend work) or if the correction abc can still swing upwards. As my currency count on USD/NOK tells its a 3 Ahead, I would opt for 35 usd crude on further dollar strength. But if the currency play is just 2 Waves up a lot Will be retraced and crude may rally on relief of dollar weakness. This is a major trigger point, so maybe its better to make the market speak a bit more. Gold looks very weak, but a dollar decline Will goose it.

        If W 3 is Ahead for bulk its hard to see concomitant weakness in commodities. So you see its hard to link all impulses into a common path.

  3. Jorge Castro says:

    Imagine a bandwagon that is rolling forward at a quickened pace. Music that is very pleasing to the ear is being played from speakers on each side of this bandwagon, and a few people currently on the back of the wagon are partying, having the time of their lives. The music, loud and clear, starts to attract many other onlookers that happen to be idly standing on the sidelines. These onlookers, unable to resist the sweet sounds being played, run to join the party that seems to be going on.

    Progressively, more and more onlookers jump on the back of this bandwagon, and those few who were initially enjoying the first phase of the party begin to leave. As the crowd of new party animals on this bandwagon grows larger, the bandwagon finds it harder and harder to move forward at the same pace. It slows, enabling more and more late onlookers, witnessing the great fun, the chance to jump on. The crowd grows even larger. Larger and larger this crowd grows, until the bandwagon, heavily laden with the bodies of drunken party animals, can no longer move forward. It finally comes to a complete stop. Now that the bandwagon is at a complete standstill, more people jump on. And why not? At this point, joining the fun is easy. Absolutely no work is required, for individuals wanting to join the crowd no longer have to run to jump on board.

    The nature of the bandwagon is to move forward. Its motionless state is unnatural, and therefore cannot last. It tries to move forward again, but can’t. The crowd, piled on back, is much too large. It must free itself of the heavy burden. And it does. It quickly shifts into reverse, and jolts backward, knocking a few of the party animals off the back. The music stops. Puzzled faces from the crowd begin to emerge. Before anyone figures out what’s going on, another backward jerk takes place, only this one is more violent. Another large group of people gets thrown off the back. Now, reality sets in. The fun has turned into a nightmare of epic proportions, and panic begins to run rampant. Some decide to jump to their deaths. Another thrust backwards sends an even larger group of drunken, off balance people, hurling to the muddy ground. It doesn’t stop. The jolts backward continue, each successive one more violent than the last. At this point, only a few die-hard wagon dwellers are holding on, their very lives hanging in the balance by a very thin thread. Failing to be completely free, the bandwagon angrily puts the pedal to the metal, and this final thrust backward is so vicious that its front wheels lift high off the ground, momentarily suspending the wagon in a perpendicular position. The last of the hangers-on crash to the ground, broken and maimed to no end.

    At this point, a new group of onlookers emerge from the nearby woods. They are clean and serene. Each movement they make is deliberate and powerfully energetic, for they did not take part in the tragedy that just transpired. Or did they? A few of the dejected souls lying on the ground take a closer look, a look that reveals something very interesting. This seemingly new group is not new at all. It is the same group that was seen quietly exiting the party before it came to its violent end. An even closer examination by a few more beaten-down onlookers reveals something even more stunning. This group not only exited the party early, they were the originators of it! “My God,” someone exclaims.

    Paralyzed, and unable to move freely, all these dejected souls can do is watch, as the masters of the game go to work, again. No sooner does the bandwagon’s wheels hit the ground than this professional platoon bolts for the wagon. In a flash they are on board. Easy. The bandwagon, now free of the larger crowd, can move forward freely and gracefully, comfortably carrying the more astute group with it.
    Its pace quickens, and before long a smooth elegant stride is in place. After a few miles of uninterrupted movement, someone from this masterful group flips on a switch, and suddenly the loud sounds of entertaining music start again. Someone yells, “OK everyone. Here they come. Let’s do it again.” Within moments, those who were the former victims of the backward crash become interested again. The music almost calling them from the grave. And once more, the never-ending cycle repeats.

  4. infantguru says:


    Based on your count, unless v can last till end of Dec, Primary IV will overturn the Santa rally ? Thanks

  5. Futures are down 5 points on SPX. Two more points down on SPX will generate SELL on SPX

  6. mjtplayer says:

    Amazing volume in the energy sector today: XLE, XOM & CVX all doing 2x daily avg volume. This, on a day where the market closed at 1pm on overall light holiday trading – incredible.

  7. The Rydex Bull/Bear funds at all time high. Are people way too bullish?

  8. thanks Tony……..well this massacre in oil could be the mark of highs for a while………it is communicating that all is not well in the economy…..perhaps one more high or double top and this thing could be off to the races in reverse………

    • tony caldaro says:

      not exactly sure I would interpret a decline in Crude prices due to lack of demand

    • scottycj1 says:

      The inflation (CB’s pumping up the baloon) is no longer having an effect…………… money can see the deflation outcome and while everyone else scratches thier head and wonders………prices drop…….now there is a push by companies to sell inventories…..the bacwardation is starting to take hold…..the turbo charged engine of the economy can take no more fuel…….the waste gate is open and all the new fuel (dollars) is being vented into the atmosphere………….someday not to far in the future…….the news being broadcast will have a change in its tone…………no longer will the news be rosy (or ignored) but by then the distribution will be complete ….and then ………well ……….you know

  9. attitude928 says:

    Nice down day for the RUT. May coincide with Minute iv for SPX.

  10. Tony,
    Lending support to today’s minute count, the SPX tagged the upper Bolinger Band which is a natural reversal point for minute iii to end.

  11. I have rebuild my model removibg some and adding some factor. Back testing is giving only 16% failure rate but 84% success rate. Unfirtunately, wont be sharing model but will put up model signals here. the model is only for spx, dow and footsie. All signals are SHORT TERM ONLY, for next 2-3 days.

    As of friday, model is buy on all three indices, but should give sell signal on footsie on monday close

  12. Tony,
    It looks to me as if every investor around is positioned for a year end rally and the idea of a year end selloff has not even been a thought. With the collapse in oil and therefore the energy companies equities/bonds and the correlation of all financial assets so close, I think we are in for a bumpy ride. Any thoughts? Thank you.

  13. Walter Crane says:

    top today my beaten up tvix at 2.43 is about to make me money. I always seem to be one or two days early. Have to work on that.

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