tuesday update

SHORT TERM: Q3 GDP beat, DOW -3

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight just before a series of economic reports. At 8:30 Q3 GDP was reported higher: +3.9% v +3.5%. At 9am Case-Shiller was reported lower: +4.9% v +5.6%, and FHFA housing prices were reported flat. The market opened at SPX 2072, a new high, ticked up to 2074 and then began to pullback. Not much of a reaction to the Q3 news. At 10am Consumer confidence was reported lower: 88.7 v 94.5. The pullback continued until 11:30 when the SPX hit 2065. Then the market went into another one of its opening range (2065-2074) trading ranges. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2067 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.05%. Bonds gained 11 ticks, Crude lost $1.95, Gold added $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims, Durable goods, Personal income/spending and PCE prices all at 8:30. Then the Chicago PMI at 9:45, and Consumer sentiment, New/Pending home sales at 10am. Quite interesting, considering most will likely be travelling for the Thanksgiving weekend.

The market opened at a new high today, ticked higher, pulled back, and then went into a trading range. Thus far it has been a fairly quiet week. We continue to count five Minor waves up from the downtrend low at SPX 1821: 1898-1878-2046-2030-2074 so far. The Minor 5th wave has divided into three Minute waves: 2056-2040-2074 so far. While we did get a short term negative divergence at this morning’s SPX 2074 high, and a pullback. Thus far the pullback is not sufficient to suggest Minute wave four is underway. That would require a further drop near SPX 2060. Today’s low SPX 2065. Short term support remains at the important SPX 2040 and the 2019 pivot, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day around neutral. Best to your pre-holiday trading, and Happy Thanksgiving!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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86 Responses to tuesday update

  1. torehund says:

    Rut better show what its made of 🙂

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  2. Lee X says:

    Happy Thanksgiving Tony
    Thanks for all you do amigo

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  3. Here is a chart- What happens next ??? I don’t . Enlighten me what month of 1998, you think were in?
    https://www.tradingview.com/x/9PbuyG4j/

    Happy Thanksgiving

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  4. Tim Haefke on Bonds, ES and the NDX.

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  5. Sovereign wealth funds have been buying stocks,bonds, RE, everyday since the late 50’s ….What is your point about 1998???? They also sold stocks, bonds, RE, since the late 1950’s. I hope this helps you from drawing any conclusions about the power of SWF’s.

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  6. torehund says:

    It isnt unreasonable (at least) to keep ourself open to a possibility that USA could be headed in the direction of some kind of home strech.
    “If we take care of the market, market takes care of us”

    All on Tonys blog are working hard to sort it out. If we give it Our best shot, then there is nothing more we can do.

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  7. mike7x says:

    Bullish Fund Assets Double Bears For 1st Time Since 2001:
    http://jlfmi.tumblr.com/post/103649104220/bullish-fund-assets-double-bears-for-1st-time

    Happy Thanksgiving!

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  8. For the person who said GDP numbers were good they should stop navel gazing at headlines, It was not better. growth has slowed in 1 2 3 quarters and will continue to slow YOY and you can tell by looking at bond yields sinking lower.

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  9. tony caldaro says:

    November 26, 2014 at 10:30 am
    newbie,
    keep in mind eye witnesses can observe the same exact event
    and arrive at different conclusions, with varying details

    Caldaro I agree with you 100%. but you can tell by some people who post comments and refuse to acknowledge the how much the ALL Central banks have done.

    When I read the comments I can tell the difference from peoples name that go on the back of a check and never on the front. There is a big difference with how people view things

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    • tony caldaro says:

      many people draw conclusions from what they read, not what they think
      some would rather not think and let others do the thinking for them
      once a conclusion is drawn, whether on information or disinformation, it becomes embedded
      one’s goal should be to keep an open mind
      certainly one should have a market roadmap
      but when the market is not following one’s roadmap
      it has obviously taken a fork in the road and one’s view requires reassessment
      project, monitor and adjust

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