SHORT TERM: Q3 GDP beat, DOW -3
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight just before a series of economic reports. At 8:30 Q3 GDP was reported higher: +3.9% v +3.5%. At 9am Case-Shiller was reported lower: +4.9% v +5.6%, and FHFA housing prices were reported flat. The market opened at SPX 2072, a new high, ticked up to 2074 and then began to pullback. Not much of a reaction to the Q3 news. At 10am Consumer confidence was reported lower: 88.7 v 94.5. The pullback continued until 11:30 when the SPX hit 2065. Then the market went into another one of its opening range (2065-2074) trading ranges. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2067 and closed there.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.05%. Bonds gained 11 ticks, Crude lost $1.95, Gold added $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims, Durable goods, Personal income/spending and PCE prices all at 8:30. Then the Chicago PMI at 9:45, and Consumer sentiment, New/Pending home sales at 10am. Quite interesting, considering most will likely be travelling for the Thanksgiving weekend.
The market opened at a new high today, ticked higher, pulled back, and then went into a trading range. Thus far it has been a fairly quiet week. We continue to count five Minor waves up from the downtrend low at SPX 1821: 1898-1878-2046-2030-2074 so far. The Minor 5th wave has divided into three Minute waves: 2056-2040-2074 so far. While we did get a short term negative divergence at this morning’s SPX 2074 high, and a pullback. Thus far the pullback is not sufficient to suggest Minute wave four is underway. That would require a further drop near SPX 2060. Today’s low SPX 2065. Short term support remains at the important SPX 2040 and the 2019 pivot, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day around neutral. Best to your pre-holiday trading, and Happy Thanksgiving!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
Rut better show what its made of 🙂
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Happy Thanksgiving Tony
Thanks for all you do amigo
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and to you and yours mr. X
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Here is a chart- What happens next ??? I don’t . Enlighten me what month of 1998, you think were in?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/9PbuyG4j/
Happy Thanksgiving
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was not referring to the year 1998
but the advance from 1990 to 1998
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Tim Haefke on Bonds, ES and the NDX.
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…drunk rambling hillbilly…
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Easy tough guy
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Happy T all
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Sovereign wealth funds have been buying stocks,bonds, RE, everyday since the late 50’s ….What is your point about 1998???? They also sold stocks, bonds, RE, since the late 1950’s. I hope this helps you from drawing any conclusions about the power of SWF’s.
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certainly not the same as QE
but they are gov’t based funds
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It’s never easy & It’s never different ! It just is – no excuses !
ob·jec·tive
əbˈjektiv/Submit
adjective
1.
(of a person or their judgment) not influenced by personal feelings or opinions in considering and representing facts.
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Well said. Stick to charting and wave counting Caldaro will you please. Your out of your league and Wikipedia is giving you bad advice. LOL just kidding . Happy Thanksgiving Sir to you and your family and everybody on the board. Thanks all
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happy T-day TTT
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It isnt unreasonable (at least) to keep ourself open to a possibility that USA could be headed in the direction of some kind of home strech.
“If we take care of the market, market takes care of us”
All on Tonys blog are working hard to sort it out. If we give it Our best shot, then there is nothing more we can do.
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agree
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Bullish Fund Assets Double Bears For 1st Time Since 2001:
http://jlfmi.tumblr.com/post/103649104220/bullish-fund-assets-double-bears-for-1st-time
Happy Thanksgiving!
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where was it in 1998?
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Caldaro since you like 1998 how many Central banks were printing money and buying stock back then?
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sovereign wealth funds were buying stocks
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Dunno, that last century is a little fuzzy for me now. 😉
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how soon we forget =)
happy T-day!
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How did that work out?
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1990 to 1998 was tougher to track than this move from 2011
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Of course it was easier to track because how central banks are operating today are different from sovereign wealth funds and so were their motives. Pretcher perfect example. He has done from genius and guru to idiot and being a punch line
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For the person who said GDP numbers were good they should stop navel gazing at headlines, It was not better. growth has slowed in 1 2 3 quarters and will continue to slow YOY and you can tell by looking at bond yields sinking lower.
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tony caldaro says:
November 26, 2014 at 10:30 am
newbie,
keep in mind eye witnesses can observe the same exact event
and arrive at different conclusions, with varying details
Caldaro I agree with you 100%. but you can tell by some people who post comments and refuse to acknowledge the how much the ALL Central banks have done.
When I read the comments I can tell the difference from peoples name that go on the back of a check and never on the front. There is a big difference with how people view things
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many people draw conclusions from what they read, not what they think
some would rather not think and let others do the thinking for them
once a conclusion is drawn, whether on information or disinformation, it becomes embedded
one’s goal should be to keep an open mind
certainly one should have a market roadmap
but when the market is not following one’s roadmap
it has obviously taken a fork in the road and one’s view requires reassessment
project, monitor and adjust
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+ 1 Tony
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