tuesday update


Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight just before a series of economic reports. At 8:30 Q3 GDP was reported higher: +3.9% v +3.5%. At 9am Case-Shiller was reported lower: +4.9% v +5.6%, and FHFA housing prices were reported flat. The market opened at SPX 2072, a new high, ticked up to 2074 and then began to pullback. Not much of a reaction to the Q3 news. At 10am Consumer confidence was reported lower: 88.7 v 94.5. The pullback continued until 11:30 when the SPX hit 2065. Then the market went into another one of its opening range (2065-2074) trading ranges. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2067 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.05%. Bonds gained 11 ticks, Crude lost $1.95, Gold added $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims, Durable goods, Personal income/spending and PCE prices all at 8:30. Then the Chicago PMI at 9:45, and Consumer sentiment, New/Pending home sales at 10am. Quite interesting, considering most will likely be travelling for the Thanksgiving weekend.

The market opened at a new high today, ticked higher, pulled back, and then went into a trading range. Thus far it has been a fairly quiet week. We continue to count five Minor waves up from the downtrend low at SPX 1821: 1898-1878-2046-2030-2074 so far. The Minor 5th wave has divided into three Minute waves: 2056-2040-2074 so far. While we did get a short term negative divergence at this morning’s SPX 2074 high, and a pullback. Thus far the pullback is not sufficient to suggest Minute wave four is underway. That would require a further drop near SPX 2060. Today’s low SPX 2065. Short term support remains at the important SPX 2040 and the 2019 pivot, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day around neutral. Best to your pre-holiday trading, and Happy Thanksgiving!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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86 Responses to tuesday update

  1. torehund says:

    Rut better show what its made of 🙂

  2. Lee X says:

    Happy Thanksgiving Tony
    Thanks for all you do amigo

  3. Here is a chart- What happens next ??? I don’t . Enlighten me what month of 1998, you think were in?

    Happy Thanksgiving

  4. Tim Haefke on Bonds, ES and the NDX.

  5. Sovereign wealth funds have been buying stocks,bonds, RE, everyday since the late 50’s ….What is your point about 1998???? They also sold stocks, bonds, RE, since the late 1950’s. I hope this helps you from drawing any conclusions about the power of SWF’s.

  6. torehund says:

    It isnt unreasonable (at least) to keep ourself open to a possibility that USA could be headed in the direction of some kind of home strech.
    “If we take care of the market, market takes care of us”

    All on Tonys blog are working hard to sort it out. If we give it Our best shot, then there is nothing more we can do.

  7. mike7x says:

    Bullish Fund Assets Double Bears For 1st Time Since 2001:

    Happy Thanksgiving!

  8. For the person who said GDP numbers were good they should stop navel gazing at headlines, It was not better. growth has slowed in 1 2 3 quarters and will continue to slow YOY and you can tell by looking at bond yields sinking lower.

  9. tony caldaro says:

    November 26, 2014 at 10:30 am
    keep in mind eye witnesses can observe the same exact event
    and arrive at different conclusions, with varying details

    Caldaro I agree with you 100%. but you can tell by some people who post comments and refuse to acknowledge the how much the ALL Central banks have done.

    When I read the comments I can tell the difference from peoples name that go on the back of a check and never on the front. There is a big difference with how people view things

    • tony caldaro says:

      many people draw conclusions from what they read, not what they think
      some would rather not think and let others do the thinking for them
      once a conclusion is drawn, whether on information or disinformation, it becomes embedded
      one’s goal should be to keep an open mind
      certainly one should have a market roadmap
      but when the market is not following one’s roadmap
      it has obviously taken a fork in the road and one’s view requires reassessment
      project, monitor and adjust

  10. soulsurfer says:

    Happy Thanksgiving to everybody. I am thankful to have found Tony’s blog over 3yrs ago and become part of his wonderful community.

    As a token of appreciation, here’s a little thanks giving bonus with a few more trend lines, now mainly since the 2011 low, but still keeping it very simple. Seems like many are converging at the current price levels….


  11. vannic99 says:


    First, I would like to wish my American neighbours(the “u” of course gives me away) a very Happy Thanksgiving. Ours is the second Monday in October — I guess the weather meant we had to get the crops in earlier! LOL

    Second, I wanted to ask about the SSEC as I see that the chart says USD driven bull market. Back when you did your much appreciated(and hoping to be updated) International review, you said of China:
    ” We believe the C wave of the triangle completed in late-2012, and the D wave, possibly back to 3,000 is underway. When the D wave completes, a downward E wave will follow to a higher low than waves A and C to complete Primary IV. Then China should be on its way to all time new highs.”

    Do you believe we are in wave D? Or can we assume that this is now a Primary wave V move? Looking for some clarity as to whether this should be a short term or long term hold.


  12. fotis2 says:

    The fact that 2 traders can look at the same chart, arrive at different conclusions ,and trade in opposite directions is the same fact that keeps the market going.Imagine if everyone saw the exact same thing and traded accordingly.

  13. mjtplayer says:

    Huge -div on the .RUT daily RSI. I count a complete move higher, with a possible last gasp, but I’m shorting IWM right here for a quick 5%+ pullback. Time frame is the next 2-3 weeks.

    – Nobody is short
    – Everyone expects the market to run higher into year-end

    Everyone, and I mean everyone, is on one side of the boat. I think you do run higher into year-end, but we get a quick, sharp pullback of 5% or so over the next few weeks into mid-Dec first.

  14. reddragonleo says:

    Trading the market over the last month has been worthless in my opinion. Only seen 2-3 opportunities that would have paid off, and they were longs. This sideways crap with intraday swings of 5-10 points stinks. Very hard to trade… even for day traders. I guess it’s always like that around holidays… which might be the reason I don’t like them (that and the fact that holidays always cost me money while at the same time prevent me from making money).

    • tommyboys says:

      No crash regardless of your level of hope. Generational crash ended in ’09 – 5 years ago. You’ve got about a generation to wait for the next mega debacle. Trend is your friend.

      • Tommyboy… there will be no crash because you said so, right? But if there is a crash or a giant debacle its a generation away? Tommyboy, do you see what is going on around you? If the Federal Reserve wasn’t buying futures & stocks the system would have already imploded, we are on borrowed time already. Things are not getting better overall, things maybe getting better for investors but that’s it. There will be consequences for our printing..

      • Iamnewbietrader we got 7 out of 7 misses this morning on economic data and the market does not go down. there is no volatility and central banks are buying US stocks. For the second time in 2 days I agree with tommyboys. there is no crash coming .

      • truth, what you are seeing by the Federal Reserve is desperation- will it last forever? At some point it will end and greedy bulls will get slaughtered. Who is to say when we are or aren’t going to crash. It could be today or 20 years from know. The over confidence from many is what truly scares me, as if any actually have a clue. I don’t know for sure if we are or aren’t going to crash, I don’t have any dates or times in mind- I’m just saying what we are seeing is criminal and it wont last forever.

      • tommyboys says:

        Durable Goods beat and Continuing Claims beat. Most important GDP beat big yesterday and for two Qs in a row. Net net however nothing was too far off the mark. These are all just snapshots regardless. Things ARE getting better on a high fly over. There will be consequences – as you say – at some point, but that’s likely a generation down the road. You don’t turn an accelerating multi-million ton freighter around on a dime. Took time to sink and after repairs will spend much time cruising again.

        Happy Thanksgiving to all and thank God we live in a place – the best country in the world – that provides us the freedom to do what we do everyday. We are a in a rare window in history – be thankful. Thank you Tony.

      • shadow305 says:

        With respect to your comment about durable goods beating, durable goods benefited from one-time orders for military aircraft. Ex-transportation, durable goods were down 0.9%, compared to the briefing.com consensus of up 0.3%.

        Initial claims came in at 313k, the highest in 1 weeks, compared to the briefing.com consensus of 285k.

        With respect to 3rd quarter GDP, I am from Canada, not Missouri, but I don’t believe many of the numbers that come out of the Department of Commerce, particularly with respect to employment and inflation. Don’t get me going on the Birth-Death Model.

      • tony caldaro says:

        keep in mind eye witnesses can observe the same exact event
        and arrive at different conclusions, with varying details

      • TB, who cares about the two consecutive strong Qtrly GDP prints. 2014 fiscal GDP is still going to be below 3%…I pointed all this out in my reply to BG below. Global trade is at an impasse and the US consumer has been and continues to be a deadbeat…..The bs govt consumer spending is a result of rising consumer cost (e.g. obamacare, housing, medical, insurance, autos, education, distribution cost of gas & electricity, etc) not true consumer discretionary spending (like clothing, wining n dining, etc)…….just saying……
        Regardless of the aforementioned, I have learned the hard way to only trade on the story the charts sing, nothing else matters.

      • tommyboys says:

        Shadow – yes on initial claims – I am referencing the more smoothed “continuing” claims. Whether we “believe” the numbers put out by our government is immaterial. The market bases itself on what is materially known. Well aware of the Fed’s hedonic work – and so is the market.

  15. Hi Tony

    Do you see any stocks or sectors about to start 3 of 3 here in December/January ?

    Thank you

  16. Tony: Happy Thanksgiving to you . Enjoy a nice relaxing day away from the markets.

  17. fotis2 says:

    Anyone following gold any ideas on the spike?

  18. fishonhook says:

    Lots of people saying that was it for the up-trend in trading hours, but they went back to their caves after hours. Looks toppish to me, but been looking toppish for the last 80 points!
    I think we will know the count once it has happened, until then lots of guesses. P3 still, P%, even B of P4 still!

  19. M1 says:

    Thanks Tony.
    I’ve been suggesting for many months that NAZ looks like in a similar pattern than the old dow during the 50s.
    NAZ dropped 589 points in 2011 and primary wave 2 was placed at 2298. Since then it looks like we have been only in major wave 1 until september 2014 when the correction started.
    NAZ dropped 494 points during this past correction so we may have seen only major wave 2 at 4116.
    All the rally from 4116 could be only part of the new structure of major wave 3 of primary wave III.
    (minor wave 1 ? we should get minor wave 2 at some point)
    NAZ should breakout and hit new all time highs next year.
    So thats the reason why I have been so bullish during this time. I will reevaluate my forecast if NAZ fell below 4116.
    Have a great week.

  20. FiveStars says:

    Thank you, Tony.
    Happy Thanksgiving!

  21. buddyglove says:

    Don’t normally pay much attention to this stuff, but at 3.9%, 3Q GDP number means we just saw the strongest back-to-back quarters of growth since 2003, impressive……..QE no longer required.

    • mjtplayer says:

      or zero interest rates…

    • BG, how is that impressive? Have you forgotten that 1Q GDP was a shitty -2.1%. Not to mention that so far 2014 GDP is only averaging 2.1% which is not impressive by any measure. In 2013, 3Q (4.5%) and 4Q (3.5%) GDP started with a bang and WS/Govt/Media could stop preach about escape velocity for 2014 and instead it was followed by the shitty -2.1% 1Q 2014 GDP……oh yeah it was the weather stupid, so they said…. Furthermore, US must print and impressive 5.6% 4Q GDP just to squeeze a 3% GDP for fiscal 2014 and a more impressive 6.1% 4Q GDP just to match 2013 fiscal GDP of 3.1%. It’s going to be very difficult do with all this global slow down and Santa better not screw it up this holiday season.

      • klopharmd says:

        Well it was the weather last winter. That said, these bad winters could become the norm. For a few years at least. Hell, they could accelerate I guess. I should do some research on the jet stream and the effects global warming is and will have on it. That would be a real kick in the ass if America (Midwest and northeast) get stuck in the only cold place left on earth.

  22. sweinv says:

    Hi Tony!
    If this is intermediate v of major 3 P3 do you expect something like intermediate iv for major 4? Spx -10%?

  23. Peter Sliney says:

    It’s a tie. 28 days above the 5 day MA. At least according to the below website Amateur-Investor. http://www.amateur-investor.net/AII_Weekend_AnalysisNov_22_14.htm
    It’s interesting but pretty sure it has no predictive value. Just a factoid.

  24. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony !
    Its amazing to see that daily macd, like a snake just crawing on the ceiling, like it never ever wants to hoock Down.

  25. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony ~ Happy Thanksgiving

  26. fotis2 says:

    I believe this is the first time in history the S&P has closed above its 5 day ma for 28 consecutive days.Well as they saying goes there’s a first time for everything.

  27. fotis2 says:

    Appreciated Tony

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