monday update

SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW +8

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.3%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.2%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened at SPX 2068. The SPX had closed at 2064 on Friday. In the opening minutes the market rallied to SPX 2070, dipped to 2066 just before 10am, then went into that four point trading range for the rest of the day, closing at 2069.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.85%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude lost 75 cents, Gold slipped $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: Q3 GDP (est. +3.1%) at 8:30, Case-Shiller and the FHFA housing index at 9am, then Consumer confidence at 10am.

The market opened higher today, rose within one point of the all time high, then went into a four point trading range for the rest of the day. Over the weekend we reviewed lots of charts, and updated some. You might want to take a look. We also had several discussions in the forum, and as a result added one alternate count to the monthly SPX chart. Today was obviously a quiet day ahead of Q3 GDP tomorrow. Short term support remains at the important SPX 2040 level and the 2019 pivot, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum rose to slightly overbought today and remained there into the close. Best to your trading the GDP update!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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96 Responses to monday update

  1. SIr Cashin says 1.2 billion for sale into the close. Looks like UNCLE10 is in there pairing off the trades.


  2. uncle10 says:

    Thanks Mr. T. Happy Thanksgiving to you and all!!
    I see newbie is still bearish and truthtrader thinks its all the CB’s, and Tboys is bullish.
    The world is right 😉


    • tony caldaro says:

      in time things will change


    • tommyboys says:

      Unc as far as I go – things DO change – they just don’t change month to month. In 2000 I became a super bear after being introduced to Prechter and watching the Naz double in under 6 months. Unfortunately I remained that way right through the ’03 lows and right past the ’07 top. The good news is I stayed that way through the ’08 low but didn’t get bullish again until Q2 ’10. So was an overall doom and gloomer for a decade. Been bullish now for 4 years – not very long through the macro lens. This will change again – but not here – not yet.


    • CB says:

      “some things never” ..true!.. Tony and uncle, you guys are always kind and always helpful..something to be always thankful for…you guys rock 🙂
      Oh, wait…Some things change, though…the yen is up, isn’t it.. 😆


    • Uncle if don’t think the FED and central banks are in there buying stocks and inflating asset prices something is wrong with you. The American consumer is spent and live paycheck to paycheck. As for me who has stock and real estate I applaud the manipulation. Art Cashin just said there is 1.2 billion of stock for sale. The stock market will probably close at the highs. Let me guess Uncle its you buying the stocks? LOL


  3. tommyboys says:

    Have to keep seeing these mainstream articles – and I think we will for some time…–october-volatility-a-preview-of-what-s-ahead-152919205.html


  4. Caldaro your PRI 4 call was perfect and dead on accurate . IT could not have been scripted any better. But we must all say Arigatō to japan.


  5. Hey Bulls, where are your stops in case of a sell off?


  6. Rodneysussman says:


    Sent from my iPad



  7. sjc1159 says:

    Hi Tony,
    I’m curious why you don’t think the Sept-Oct drop was a Major Wave IV.


  8. jrtrader25 says:

    I’m going out on a limb and saying the high of the year is printed today. This market feels too much like 2007 to me. Cheap vix calls look attractive up here. GLTA and have a stuffing filled Thanksgiving!!!!


    • jrtrader25, Not so soon. At around 2040-44 of SPX (when it hanged there for 3-4 trade days) multiple BEARISH indicators triggered. But, the jump from 1952 to 1970 overnight completely destroyed all BEARISH indicators.

      It was like BEN coming with his chopper. Deja Vu!! It was like days, when Ben was full throttle..Ben gone now!!!


  9. IF I had to make a prediction today could be the Gary Lewis TOP ….good luck my friend hang in there you will be fine


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