monday update

SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW +8

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.3%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.2%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened at SPX 2068. The SPX had closed at 2064 on Friday. In the opening minutes the market rallied to SPX 2070, dipped to 2066 just before 10am, then went into that four point trading range for the rest of the day, closing at 2069.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.85%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude lost 75 cents, Gold slipped $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: Q3 GDP (est. +3.1%) at 8:30, Case-Shiller and the FHFA housing index at 9am, then Consumer confidence at 10am.

The market opened higher today, rose within one point of the all time high, then went into a four point trading range for the rest of the day. Over the weekend we reviewed lots of charts, and updated some. You might want to take a look. We also had several discussions in the forum, and as a result added one alternate count to the monthly SPX chart. Today was obviously a quiet day ahead of Q3 GDP tomorrow. Short term support remains at the important SPX 2040 level and the 2019 pivot, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum rose to slightly overbought today and remained there into the close. Best to your trading the GDP update!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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96 Responses to monday update

  1. Libor Val says:

    3:30 lets ramp it up to 2075

  2. SIr Cashin says 1.2 billion for sale into the close. Looks like UNCLE10 is in there pairing off the trades.

  3. uncle10 says:

    Thanks Mr. T. Happy Thanksgiving to you and all!!
    I see newbie is still bearish and truthtrader thinks its all the CB’s, and Tboys is bullish.
    The world is right 😉

    • tony caldaro says:

      in time things will change

    • tommyboys says:

      Unc as far as I go – things DO change – they just don’t change month to month. In 2000 I became a super bear after being introduced to Prechter and watching the Naz double in under 6 months. Unfortunately I remained that way right through the ’03 lows and right past the ’07 top. The good news is I stayed that way through the ’08 low but didn’t get bullish again until Q2 ’10. So was an overall doom and gloomer for a decade. Been bullish now for 4 years – not very long through the macro lens. This will change again – but not here – not yet.

    • CB says:

      “some things never” ..true!.. Tony and uncle, you guys are always kind and always helpful..something to be always thankful for…you guys rock 🙂
      Oh, wait…Some things change, though…the yen is up, isn’t it.. 😆

    • Uncle if don’t think the FED and central banks are in there buying stocks and inflating asset prices something is wrong with you. The American consumer is spent and live paycheck to paycheck. As for me who has stock and real estate I applaud the manipulation. Art Cashin just said there is 1.2 billion of stock for sale. The stock market will probably close at the highs. Let me guess Uncle its you buying the stocks? LOL

  4. tommyboys says:

    Have to keep seeing these mainstream articles – and I think we will for some time…–october-volatility-a-preview-of-what-s-ahead-152919205.html

  5. Caldaro your PRI 4 call was perfect and dead on accurate . IT could not have been scripted any better. But we must all say Arigatō to japan.

  6. Hey Bulls, where are your stops in case of a sell off?

  7. Rodneysussman says:


    Sent from my iPad


  8. sjc1159 says:

    Hi Tony,
    I’m curious why you don’t think the Sept-Oct drop was a Major Wave IV.

  9. jrtrader25 says:

    I’m going out on a limb and saying the high of the year is printed today. This market feels too much like 2007 to me. Cheap vix calls look attractive up here. GLTA and have a stuffing filled Thanksgiving!!!!

    • jrtrader25, Not so soon. At around 2040-44 of SPX (when it hanged there for 3-4 trade days) multiple BEARISH indicators triggered. But, the jump from 1952 to 1970 overnight completely destroyed all BEARISH indicators.

      It was like BEN coming with his chopper. Deja Vu!! It was like days, when Ben was full throttle..Ben gone now!!!

  10. IF I had to make a prediction today could be the Gary Lewis TOP ….good luck my friend hang in there you will be fine

  11. scottycj1 says:

    Looks like todays CIT may actually take hold

  12. rc1269 says:

    Food for thought:

    rc1269 says:

    October 28, 2014 at 6:57 am

    Looking at the DAX it looks like it met reasonable downturn levels to be considered a completed PIV. If that’s indeed the case, and every morning we come in to see the DAX in the green, it seems like it will be difficult for our markets to continue meaningfully lower. I respect the waves, but that the above dynamic is hard to overcome. just my non OEW thoughts. cheers

  13. torehund says:

    The steep part of the primary 3, (where the gap ups and go are a normal part), could be the 5th wave but also the 3rd wave. As I aired yesterday it seems like the primary 3 only consist of 2 completed and corrected Waves, these Waves are in size miniscule to the 2 we saw in primary one. What I think has confused the count is that the corrections have all been tilted upwards except for the first of the completed Waves. That makes sense as the weekly and monthly macd at that time was pretty low. Conclusion, we are probably in the beginning 3rd of primary 3, and less likely in the beginning stages of wave 5 of primary 3.

  14. Gary Lewis says:

    Today marks day 29 of this move, the same number of days as in the last move up. Also marks a record for number of consistent days above the 5 day moving average which is probably an irrelevant tidbit of useless information. I will add my last salvo of puts in the February time frame (as my Novs have expired, and I’ve given up on Dec already 😦 ). Other than that, I give up. It’s really hard to go “all in” on something that I believe is manipulated and doesn’t represent reality. It’s all just a mountain of debt that is starting to require negative interest rates to sustain. I don’t see a good ending but its demise probably will not occur in my lifetime. Time to waste my remaining days on something more exciting. Bye

  15. soulsurfer says:

    thanks tony!!

    Personally, I am getting tired lately of trying to follow each and every scribble. That’s also not what OEW is about! So I decided to take a step back and look at what we got since the March 2009 low: 4 trendlines. It’s really all we need to know, and it’s really all there is to this market.

    Keep an eye on them. Above or below will tell you who the winner is. AND it shows that Primary IV has not yet happened since the (blue) baseline has not been revisited. Simple! Darn simple!

  16. Walter Crane says:

    I would like to thank Tony again for calling the exact bottom of the last big wave down. Great call and guess what? We don’t pay to be here. I don’t think enough has been made out of that call here.

  17. technically we are entering one of the strongest weeks of the year, and THIN volume, it might be one of those THIN TO WIN type trades. meaning they ramp things up into a SHORT END week. Hmmm.

    the VIX here => is surely playing along.

    I have talked to 3 fund managers this week, and they are panicing, because they have all this money, and new freshies, and have not put it to work. So in a way they are panicing they are not in the market as it steamrolls higher.

  18. Back in my day nobody wanted to be in a crowded trade. Most big money made a fortune taking the contrarian bet. Not anymore… Most all are bullish are with good reason they are aware central banks are buying S&P futures. Now its stay long because nothing can go wrong.

  19. drwarmington says:

    Tony, I see you have highlighted the high yesterday of 2071.46 and same with the DOW. If that holds, it will be the top of ???

  20. bouraq says:

    Grinding higher:

  21. bhupal777 says:

    Tony, I really appreciate your hard work and sharing your EW knowledge by updating individual stock charts on your chart book. I strongly recommend to take a look at those charts for folks practicing EW analysis.

    Like other Ellioticians, why you don’t show any channels and probable price projections on any of your charts.

  22. torehund says:

    Funny we seem to be all over the place…currently I am in 3 rd wave of P3..some are in 5th of p3 and some in P4 With a obnoxiously high w-wave. Newbie is in crash mode, and all this is positive opinion divergence, as one-mindedness is usually destructive..
    Rut hoocking up vs spx on the daily, I am ready for full throttle..:)

  23. I wonder what number they make up tommorow ? Should be fun

  24. fotis2 says:

    Thanks Tony

  25. syedsma says:

    Hi Tony,

    What probability would you assign to the alternate count – i.e. we are in PV instead of PIII>Major 3>Int v?

    • tony caldaro says:

      some group like it
      plus some people who comment on the blog looking for new subscribers like it too
      look at this chart, compare all the corrections since 2011, and tell me if you see anything that looks like a Primary IV$INDU&p=W&st=2009-01-01&en=today&id=p63870525915&a=67200084&r=1416864912480&cmd=print

      • John Bell says:

        Thanks for at least posting the PV alternate. 2-3 weeks ago I came to this blog and posted that we were likely starting into PV and gave a lengthy discussion and reasons for it. To confirm PV we would need the rest of the world markets to continue to move up and some more make new highs besides US large caps.

        The main reason that I say PIV is done is that the entire world of indexes except for 3 large cap US indexes suffered 3 months and 15-20+% of corrections. Only the US large cap indexes held up initially and finally gave in. So looked like they only had one wave down when ther rest of the world had a large ABC down.

        The reason those US large cap indexes SPX, INDU, NDX are anomalies this time is that there are not many good places to place money in the world. And stocks in those indexes have been selected from all over the world to buy. So money has been flowing into those US indexes for several months from all over the world.

        Also the main difference between PIII extension and PV starting is the assumed potential length of time this wave will last. PV could be one large blow-off wave or it could sub-divide and take longer and go higher. Right now we are in a blow-off phase with the wave designation to be determined later PIII extension or PV. Not much difference at this point as far as trading goes.

        Thanks for your service. I read often but do not post very often here.

      • soulsurfer says:

        I agree with Tony that the recent low was not PIV. For starters, it is hard (to almost impossible) to squeeze in 5 major waves off the SPX 1075 low… It doesn’t fit with the trendline that connects the 2009 low -with the 2011 low either. PIV should tag that line. Hence a 300-400 point drop is what PIV should be IMHO.

      • manunidhi21 says:

        Namaste Tony..
        So my home work was not bad..
        But I am confused about India nifty update..big change from bear B to it possible ?

      • fotis2 says:

        The chart is very clear the probability of P3 extension and the price action seem to be in agreement.

  26. mharrison60 says:

    Thanks Tony

    Btw chart link is not highlighted

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