weekend update


Another good week for the market as new all time highs keep this uptrend rising. The market started the week at SPX 2040, rose to 2056 by Tuesday, pulled back to 2040 by Thursday, then rallied to 2071 on Friday. For the week the SPX/DOW were +1.10%, the NDX/NAZ were +0.55%, and the DJ World gained 0.90%. On the economic front it was a positive week. On the uptick: NY/Philly FED, the PPI, NAHB, building permits, existing home sales, leading indicators and the WLEI. On the downtick: industrial production, capacity utilization, housing starts, plus weekly jobless claims rose. Next week, a holiday shortened one, we get Q3 GDP, the Chicago PMI and reports on Housing.

LONG TERM: bull market

The March 2009, Cycle wave [1], five Primary wave bull market continues. Surprisingly this market has already reached a level 31% above the previous all time high in 2007. And, it is the third longest bull market, in months, in the modern era. Only the 1921-1929 and 1987-2000 bull markets had a longer duration. What is also surprising, is that it has been three weeks since the FED ended QE 3 and the market is still rising. This has not occurred before in the entire bull market. Certainly there is a lot of QE-like activity in other countries, but nothing underway or promised by the FED. In fact, many are honing in at the beginning of short term rate increases starting in June 2015.


We continue to count Primary waves I and II ending in 2011, and Primary wave III underway since then. Twice, when this market looked like it was about to end Primary III, Q3 2013 and Q3 2014, it extended. You will note in the SPX/DOW/NDX charts, we have upgraded all those charts to an extending Primary III. The NAZ chart is now the only one of the four with the alternate Primary IV: Major A – B count. We have slightly preferred the extending Primary III count for a few weeks now. After tracking this uptrend for five weeks, we do not currently see any signs that it is a corrective B wave. It looks quite impulsive.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

This uptrend began in mid-October at SPX 1821. It made quite an explosive advance into early November, and since then has slowed somewhat. In the beginning there were many small degree waves, as the uptrend tried to establish itself. We had a difficult time trying to count all these smaller waves, and decided to just let the uptrend unfold. This is quite unusual. Nevertheless, the market finally settled and we were able to get a decent count. Since then we have been counting five Minor waves up from the SPX 1821 low: 1898-1878-2046-2030-2071.


Once this uptrend cleared the 2019 pivot we expected it to continue until the 2070 pivot, and possibly the 2085 pivot. This market hit the 2070 pivot on Friday. Around these pivots we have a cluster of Fibonacci wave relationships, which should act as resistance: 2078, 2082 and 2084. This small six point range locks in the entire advance from the SPX 1075 Primary II low, making it quite important. Should this uptrend break through it, and the pivots, the next pivot is at SPX 2131. Technically, we are still observing negative divergences on the daily NDX/NAZ charts, and now the SPX chart. This, in itself, is a bit of a warning medium term. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots.


As noted above we see five Minor waves up from the SPX 1821 low: 1898-1878-2046-2030-2071. Minor wave 3 divided into five Minute waves: 2024-2001-2041-2032-2046, and Minor wave 5 appears to be doing something similar: 2056-2040-2071 so far. With Minor wave 3 more than twice Minor 1, and this uptrend having gained nearly 14% in just five weeks, Minor 5 could be quite small. In fact at SPX 2078 Minor 5 would equal 0.618 Minor 1. Since it has already reached SPX 2071 it may unfold in five small waves or even a diagonal triangle. Interesting juncture medium term.


Short term support is at SPX 2040 and the 2019 pivot, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. SPX 2040 now looks like a quite important level for this uptrend. Short term momentum ended the week near neutral.


The Asian markets were mixed on the week losing 0.2%.

The European markets were all higher on the week surging 4.6%.

The Commodity equity group were all higher as well gaining 3.9%.

The DJ World index gained 0.9%.


Bonds still look like they are in a downtrend finishing flat on the week.

Crude is still in a downtrend but gained 0.8% on the week.

Gold is also in a downtrend but gained 0.8% too.

The USD continues its relentless uptrend gaining 0.9% on the week.


Tuesday: Q3 GDP (est. +3.2%), Case-Shiller, the FHFA index and Consumer confidence. Wednesday: weekly Jobless claims, Durable goods, Personal income/spending, PCE prices, the Chicago PMI, Consumer sentiment, New/Pending home sales. Quite a busy two days. Thursday is a national holiday: Thanksgiving! Happy Thanksgiving, and best to your short trading week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

GUIDELINES: https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2014/11/01/guidelines-how-to-use-this-site/

About tony caldaro

This entry was posted in weekend update and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

153 Responses to weekend update

  1. perversionofthemean says:

    Imanewbie… you crack me up; thanks for the laughs! The inane Chicken Little act, “Gap down, flash crash…” is great vaudeville!

    Absent a basis in your analysis (no charts, sentiment readings, levels, fundies, etc. — just “feelings”), it *is* like a broken Yoko Ono record.

    Are you paid by hedgies to troll blogs and sow seeds paralleling your fund’s positions? If so, at least add some credible content to be more convincing.

    • Perv,

      lol. I’m glad I’m amusing you, your welcome send all donations to charity and please don’t lie on your taxes. I do share my counts, I will share it with you. I think we are now or within 20points from a drop to either 1990 or 1940 depending… I am not a troll, I am your saving grace and apparently many peoples punching bag , and apparently a comedian. No reason to be long here, SPX is extremely overbought with negative divergence… Bullish Sentiment at 49%

  2. The issue here is everyone and there mother is waiting to sell with a close stop or waiting to go short when a pull back begins. The market is allowing neither, so how do you think it plays out from here? Slow grind up to keep bulls in but even grinding up to a certain point will lead to selling.The writing is on the wall for a good sell off but it cant happen unless its a flash crash or monster gap down over night? Is Ferguson verdict the catalyst/excuse?

  3. berniebaruch says:

    With the seasonality of this week, the only thing negative could be any event risk out of Ferguson MO. Looks like it will be released today.

  4. mharrison60 says:

    Interesting article suggests Fed balance sheet continues to expand despite official end of QE. I don’t know if this is due temporary factors or a more deliberate action but could explain how markets are continuing higher without QE liquidity.
    Hope link posts okay http://streettalklive.com/index.php/blog.html?id=2511

  5. scottycj1 says:

    This market is all Forked up……..A possibility with a CIT tomorrow


  6. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ WPP @ 206.06 ~ WR1 @ 207.66 ~ WR2 @ 208.65
    Friday’s H/L 161.8% ext. @ 208.80
    GL & Happy Holidays.

  7. I have to say how many people would be shocked by a spike in the VIX and a nasty reversal down today on the markets? Lets hope central banks are not sleeping.

  8. fishonhook says:

    IMVHO EW/OEW etc would have more credibility if the practitioners did NOT always have an alternate count. Put your chips down and then when it looks like it failed. move to a new squiggle count. However having multiple different counts is a cop out. Would you keep going to a doctor who gave a dozen diagnoses every visit and never stuck to one?

    • cicelyalaska says:

      Agree a bit, but that is part of playing probabilities. The true weakness every EW or marketing timing blog/service has is that they give out a price target. Once this target price/top/bottom is printed, any number of forces can work against that forecast from becoming reality. I follow some paid services that have simple long, short or cash recommendations that are protected from this. They work and they work well.

    • JD C. says:

      If you are going to use EW/OEW you have to find a way to fit it to your overall strategy, or don’t use it. It is just one tool in the tool box. You have to buy low and trim some leveraged risk into a third wave or fifth wave, use low stops for the long run, etc. I cannot trade EW and I say that all the time to people. But if you bought the 2011 and/or 2012 lows and used low stops, recognized the two or three 1-2’s and two or three 3-4’s you could of made a lot of money. I also use monthly and quarterly spy call options from channel lows. Tops are hard to see, so I don’t outright short, maybe hedge 40 to 50%.
      If you keep on hoping to trade every wave you will get discouraged with EW. Happy investing.

  9. Tech sector seems to be extremely over bought and over done. At this point, I am looking for a sharp pull back to retrace the gains made from SPX 1821. Target SPX 1976.

  10. torehund says:

    35 usd crude of 125, EW say one of them is coming, place Your best opinions…

  11. I haven’t really followed the message board too closely, but is anyone simply looking at the option that Int 5 of P3 will equal Int 1 of P3?

    From Tony’s chart it appears Int 1 of P3 was ~264 points (1158-1422). 1820+264 = 2084.

  12. fotis2 says:

    The quiet before the storm?

  13. tony caldaro says:

    comment section cut off again?

  14. As Tony pointed out in his Friday post, the daily NYSE A-D line cleared it’s previous uptrend high on Friday with a +1061 reading and is now challenging it’s all time high made at the end of August. However, the weekly NYSE A-D line has not yet decisively broken out of it’s potential head and shoulders’ pattern and I believe that it is important to the longevity and amplitude of the Primary 3 extension that it does so.


    The NYSE composite has moved up briskly, breaking above a flat-top consolidation on Friday.


    The performance of the $RUT (R2K) was altogether unimpressive. We can only hope it is consolidating it’s sharp gains from the Oct. 15 low.


  15. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony! #101 (Always wanted to do that.)

  16. Gary Lewis says:

    SPY weekly overbought level – 208.92 this week. All statistical indicators continue to strengthen implying continued rising prices for the foreseeable future.

    • joecthetruthteller says:


      Agree 100%

    • Gary Lewis says:

      But, perhaps a useless piece of trivia, Tuesday marks the 29th day from the recent low to high. The September to October move up took 29 days before falling. Chart pattern appears similar as well. Might be a good moment to add some Jan puts. (someone has got to keep feeding the bulls😉 or they will die )

  17. blackjak100 says:

    If this is correct, wave [iii] = 5 * wave [i] = 2077…then you would still need (iv) & (v) to unfold. However, Nate’s count seems a bit stretched because MACD is not strongest during this 3rd wave. Declining MACD for the past 2 weeks seems to support an extended fifth wave underway. Whether you label it like this or as an extended fifth wave which began at 1958 and is still unfolding, it appears this uptrend has a minimum several days still to go with a MIN target of 2078.

    • blackjak100 says:

      Then again, this count could be correct suggesting an end to the uptrend in 1-2 days. It corresponds exactly to Tony’s target and Pretzel suggested on 10/31 that classic TA suggested a target of 2075-2085. He was spot on Fri calling for iii of 5 to end 2070-2075. Also, 2073 corresponds to the 1.272 fib ext of previous decline 2019-1821. GL and cheers!

    • fionamargaret says:

      Very nice charts esvxm – I have GLD on a bullish reversal since 14 Nov., (I think that meshed with the news of the Russians buying gold, then in Europe the economists were saying Draghi and the Chinese were going to diversify beyond the presumed and purchase gold also)….. think TLT will be a benefactor as well.

      • fionamargaret says:

        ..beneficiary of course…don’t write when also feeding pups and snow clearers..

      • esvxm says:

        Thanks fiona!
        Yes, I believe it is around the 14th Gold did a reversal day (outside). I like to use the HeikenAshi candles to measure a shift in momentum and think on the weekly (last week) we had a green candle. Also GLD last 3 weekly candles are green I think.

      • esvxm says:

        Will check out TLT.
        The bonds have bot been doing much recently, only sideways after hitting a key resistance level few weeks ago.

  18. bouraq says:

    Weekend charts:
    $SPX $DJIA $RUT $GOLD $OIL $GBPUSD $EEM http://www.tradingchannels.co.uk/2014/11/weekend-charts_23.html

  19. everything here it is results of calculation, verticals represents time

  20. Would love to hear comments on this chart of the SPX vs the ten yr treasury with focus on the following.
    1. The extreme divergence since the 2009 bottom in light of the immediately prior divergence and the market plunge that followed.
    2. The fact that volume has been declining ever since.
    3. The fact that all of the volume spikes have been on sell offs.
    It certainly looks ominous to me, would love to har others thoughts.


  21. fishonhook says:


    below you say “agree”. Was that to jeff Grundlach saying interest rates could go lower or agree we have seen the lows?
    It is not clear. I think you have been saying that the lows for rates are in. Did I misread that?

  22. Has anybody had the chance to read “the death of money” its actually a very good read. I do not agree with everything but some points make a lot of sense. I am not plugging his book I do not know him personally I was given the book as a gift

  23. soulsurfer says:

    thanks for an objective weekend update Tony! Much better than all those “we scored, we bought, we are long since (you pick a date), DOW 20K around the corner” emails from who knows who cluttering my inbox of late… Tell tale sign?

    Yes, the SPX passed my ideal and long standing target area of 2040 +/- 10, which as Tony pointed out is a very important level, but if it stalls in the next target of 2075 +/- 10 I’d say it’s close enough😉 Missed it by 1 Fib extension😉

    I found David Soble’s post very interesting and my weekend update on the NAZ and NDX,


    kinda shows what he pointed out. I show here how the market gaped up over important S/R levels on 3 occasions. I haven’t checked if those were the same dates these CBers were oiling the printing presses again, as David pointed out, or not, but my point is that “if you can’t win the battle in cash market, you then win the war in the futures”.

    Anyway, gaps do tend to get filled… a 10% correction from here or a little higher will take care of that. However, for now the trend is up, till it isn’t.

    ps: I am working on bigger picture count for the NAZ where I try to see if we’re dealing with intermediate v or major 5 right now. It’s not yet ready to see prime time, but stay tuned. Will be very interesting comparison IMHO. TA combined with OEW. My favorite dish, served warm!

  24. Tony,i agree,look at the weekly true strenght index,the highs were ascending as the wave unfolds,but now i suspect that a new high is not probable,thanks


  25. fishonhook says:

    So to summarize Tonys current thinking as I have understood it and he can correct me if I misunderstood

    The new count is an extension of P3 and not P4
    We are in the final legs of P3 with the 5th wave coming

    If so the final end of this bull market could be a lot higher
    Gold and silver are in a bear market rally and not a new bull market

  26. Hi,thanks Tony
    I’m in doubt if it’s a flag or a simple ascending,expecting Dow around 18250,being prudent
    looks like a hyperbolic leg


  27. CB says:

    Thanks Tony. Great analysis and guidance as always plus an important reminder to remain very flexible at this juncture.
    Also as there seems to be a little confusion as to who, at the Fed, said what & when & how it “saved” the market on Oct 15, here are a couple of links indicating the sequence of events. There are multiple sources for both stories indicating those two dates/approx. times:
    1. Oct 15 Yellen story first reported by Bloomberg http://finance.yahoo.com/news/private-meeting-janet-yellen-reportedly-184100815.html
    2. Oct 16 Bullard interview http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/10/16/bullard-says-fed-could-delay-planned-end-of-bond-buying-program/

    • jjjzzzwww says:

      imo, “the committee would have an option of ramping up QE at that point.” killed P4

    • buddyglove says:

      All this harking back to Bullard/Yellen ancient history is just monday morning quarter back talk, and serves little purpose imo, and the obsession with “news events” can lead to trading failure. Price action is the final arbiter and this alone can have you correctly positioned or not. imho. Good health/luck to all.

      • fishonhook says:

        What is your call then? Did you say you went short recently or was that someone else?

      • bhupal777 says:

        Well Said. +1 million.

      • bhupal777 says:

        Buddyglove, Well said. +1 million.

      • I agree – well said, buddyglove.

      • CB says:

        Gotcha, buddy. Ignoring the Fedspeak during extremely OB or OS conditions can and will lead to trading failure for sure. And it is not just “noise” during those times, if you can discern the difference. So, hopefully, there was a lesson in that for those who want to learn something. History repeats itself quite often. GL to you also.

      • buddyglove says:

        Fish… For now I am Long 70/73% Unleveraged global equity, and short Gold with leverage.

      • “Watching to see if the Fed cuts rates today is a waste of time because there is both a bullish and a bearish interpretation of anything that they do. What is key is to see what the market does, not what the fed does.”

        The above quote is from a real, bona fide pro S&P trader. He is saying the same thing that buddyglove is saying: Price action, not news flow, is all that matters – it will tell you all you need to know. If the pros know that THEY can’t game the fed, why do all the retail pikers here and elsewhere ’round the internet think it is so important to pay attention to the Fed?

      • Buddy: I think you mean “hearkening”, not “harking”. I think there is value in combining fundamental with technical analysis.

      • CB says:

        That’s great. If both of you, buddy & CN, are doing great without paying attn. to the Fed, that’s terrific – you guys must be pretty awesome. Enjoy your success! I agree with George Schaeffer ; it’s a balancing act…
        Happy Holidays everyone! Thanks to all the talented folks on this blog for sharing their own work: charts, opinions, experience… So many great minds! Happy Holidays everyone

  28. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony ~ Great work and always appreciated. Happy Holidays
    INT V would equal 2084 if my math is correct.

  29. jrtrader25 says:

    Thanks Mr. C for your insights.

    The U.S. market cap to gdp is now a whopping 131%. The only time higher was the dotcom bubble of 2000 where it reached 154%. The high in 2007 was 116%. I’m a strong believer that eventually things revert back to the mean, which in this case is around 62%. In my opinion all this surmises is that there is no real value in this market at this moment in time. It’s definitely time for a serious correction.

    • valunvstr says:

      Think about what Market Cap/GDP is…GDP is Gross DOMESTIC Product. How much of today’s profits, labor, etc. comes from overseas? There is a reason that valuation metrics have virtually NO forecastability…They don’t work. Same as the Schiller P/E…that valuation metric’s denominator is INFLATION adjusted earnings. The Schiller PE has been “above average” since 1995. What happened in 1995? How CPI is calculated was changed. So if the input into the Schiller PE was changed how can one use the tool the same since 1995 as for the 100 prior? Bottom line…without monetary tightening and/or a recession, we don’t bear markets. Bad corrections? Absolutely, but not bear markets.

      • CB says:

        Like your practical approach, val. With all the creative accounting out there, it’s best to just focus on rallies/corrections rather than on any fundamental metrics.
        .too bad, but… “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistic” – Benjamin Disraeli

        Nice target gt, thanks for sharing!

      • CB says:

        and statistics…that is.

      • ewamarkets I don’t think the Central bank has done anything but create a bubble. they have not helped main st. For me the central banks have done wonders. I own real estate and stocks. for the person who works for Con Edison who has 3 kids to put through college it does nothing as the average guy is barley making ends meet.

    • Jrtrader good work to point that out. We must be realistic and know central bankers are buying S&P futures. Caldaro does give good insight. He was spot on with that 10% correction and he would have been correct on his P4 call until Bullard spoke and bank of Japan took action. But the BOTTOM LINE is Central banks call the shots. Central banks have made all forms of EW and fundamentals pointless in my opinion. It’s a different game now.

    • tony caldaro says:

      Have different numbers using the Wilshire 5000.
      1998 peak 25% premium
      2000 peak 59% premium
      2007 peak 9% premium
      2014 24% premium
      no bubble yet

    • It is good to remember valuation and mean regression. But according to the
      thetruthtrader in a post below, .62 was the SPX/GDP ratio at the 2002 market lows. That was an extreme low ratio and would be considerably below the mean valuation which might come in around 90-95.

  30. ko68 says:

    Thanks Tony!
    Somewhat odd drawing of the upper trendline of the SPX weekly chart though in my opinion.

  31. Thanks, Tony! Super weekend report. 🙂

  32. FiveStars says:

    Thank you, Tony. Excellent Weekend Update.

  33. david soble says:

    Thanks again to Tony for his tireless work.
    Let me reiterate again that I believe the current rally will extend into the New Year and that we will see a major correction shortly thereafter based on the one inherent weakness of QE. That inherent weakness is that QE drives a nation’s currency lower creating trade imbalances which have to be addressed by other nation’s through competitive devaluations or in the case of Japan may lead to a free fall in the yen which would lead to a worldwide banking/currency crisis.
    Unlike Tony I do not see the ending of the Fed’s QE program as having any significance. We had a 9.8% decline in the S&P until the Bullard comment saved the market on 10/15. What has occurred since then reminds me of a well coordinated and rehearsed theatrical production. The S&P approached the 200 DMA on 10/31 and the BOJ provided the fuel to get us past the barrier. Dragi followed up with his version of QE to keep the rally going. When the market stalled out and Tony posed the question is the market in a topping pattern (clearly it was) we get the Chinese Central Bank cutting interest rates and Dragi giving us another version of I will do whatever it takes to move the market higher on Friday. The timing of these moves is just too perfect to believe it is coincidence unless you believe in the Easter Bunny and Santa Clause.
    So why are they working together? Simple, the world is facing a wave of deflation that is being reinforced by the collapse of commodity prices (read oil and manufacturing metals…iron ore at multi year lows) and the central banks have decided to send the market to the moon since it may be their only tool (in their mind) to offset the coming deflationary spiral.
    My own view is that the CB’s manipulation has just postponed the inevitable. You can postpone market cycles but you can’t repeal them. What I find interesting is that words (Bullard and Dragi) have as much power as action (BOJ and the Chinese CB). The CB’s are all in. That should lead to a hyperbolic move in the market. There is no reason to believe that given the seasonality and the irrational exuberance of the market that we can’t see 2175 to 2200 BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR. The market is in Alice in Wonderland territory so anything is possible.
    The problem is that the CB’s have played all their cards. The yen fell from 116 to 117 this week but came within 2pips of hitting 119. It was saved when the Japanese FIN MIN said it was falling to fast. Really, it had fallen from 109 to the brink of 119 and you just noticed. Japan has become the land of financial idiots. Abe has wrecked the economy but expects to win an election on 12/14 because the other side is disorganized. We will see if 12/15 offers a surprise to Abe and the market.
    If Abe is repudiated the market may see take that as a sign that QE is no longer popular. If he wins expect the Yen to sell off in the aftermath and the currency crisis to deepen.
    No one will spoil Christmas. Enjoy the parabolic move up. Investors are like drunken Christmas shoppers. The surprise comes when they open up the credit card bill and realize what they spent. The CB’s have used up their ammunition. I can’t wait to see what they do if the market has a sell off in January.

    • Do you consider the price of oil could have something to say in all this?

    • fotis2 says:

      2200 hmm would make a picture perfect P3 161.8 of P1

    • wtf10 says:

      This is a great post David.

      Good analysis and insights. The only point of disagreement for me is at the end, “The CB’s have used up their ammunition”. I have learned to never doubt the “creativity” of the CB’s to continue their bad policies.

      Tony talked about the need for a trigger to set the next picture of the wave outlook. I agree with that.There are two that come to mind for me in no particular priority: first is the EU situation. Unless Germany steps up and agrees to stimulus, I don’t see how they (Draghi) can continue to paint a rosy recovery picture. So far Merkel has been intransigent. Second is the known unknown (Congress shutting down the government is an example, however unlikely), or the unknown unknowns (ISL action, Putin and the Ukraine, or some other world event).

      The smart money began accumulating at the Oct low and on the way up. As we continue to make new highs, the uninformed money (retail investors) will not want to “miss the train” and will pile in. The smart money will gladly distribute to them and go to the sidelines hedged leaving the uninformed holding the bag, so to speak. Then a triggering event or action. I’ve seen it before.

      Good post.

    • FiveStars says:

      Thanks David. Nice analysis.
      My take of SPX year end is 2150 and I agree we will see market hard sell off in 2nd/3rd week of Jan 2015. USD is getting very close to strong resistance $90, I think USD will go thru correction and get significant pullback, Gold/Oil will rally when dollar corrects.

    • 30mtradermom says:

      Brilliantly stated. Thanks for sharing!

    • buddyglove says:

      David…Currency shenanigans to gain competitive edge have been going on for centuries, so nothing new to see here. Just make sure you are hedged against inflation and all will be well.

    • Problem with this type of thinking is that it tends to reflect the consensus among a wide group of investors/traders on the internet. Worse, it’s a narrative rather than a strict study of price. I’m skeptical.

      • bhupal777 says:

        Counter Hedge, Well said. If I have to guess David is probably cut from the same EWI cloth. He is probably reading lot of Precter’s stuff. But I am amused Tony liked his narrative story. Actually lot of such narrative people are the reason this rally is going on day after day and month after month with their short covering. No one knows if this ends badly or not. Even if it tends badly no one knows when? Just go with what you see unless you are managing million or billions of dollars for your clients.

      • pimacanyon says:

        I’m also skeptical of a conspiracy by the CB’s. Was a CB conspiracy the cause of the bull market of the 1990’s? The top is the year 2000 was way above today’s valuations. Was that blow off top caused by the Central Bankers of the world working in perfect harmony?

    • Good points David. The last few months look exactly like the 2nd half of 1998. The spx had a 22% correction which ended in October and then finished the year at all time highs.

    • Allaaaaaah Spoo Akbr!!!!!!!!!

  34. fotis2 says:

    Tony thanks your work is greatly appreciated.

  35. Gary Lewis says:

    Thanks Tony. based on your trendlines, it appears that you are expecting P3 to top around 2200-2300, is that accurate?

  36. Tony,
    Would you please help clear up some confusion on my part?
    The SPX weekly chart in the update above shows we are in Major 5.
    On the last page of the chart section the chart labeled ZZZZ is exactly the same, but is labeled as the alternate count.
    Then there is the simplified chart also on the last page showing we are in Major 5.
    Could you please help me with the differentiation?

  37. tony caldaro says:

    Still keeping an eye on it.
    In broader terms can count: 1898-1878-2046-2030-2056-2040-2071

  38. sunset2014 says:

    Namaste Tony. Thanks for another great weekend report.

    Just wanted to get your thoughts on a potential 7 wave advance since the 1820 low in October? I recall the downtrend from 2019 unfolded in a 7 wave structure. Potentially keeping Primary 4 on the table.

    Thank you in advance.


Comments are closed.