monday update

SHORT TERM: consolidation continues, DOW +13

Overnight Japan reported they are in recession after their market hit a seven year high on Friday. Go figure. Asian markets lost 1.2%, mostly Japan. Europe opened lower but rallied after ECB’s president Draghi’s QE comments and gained 0.5%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 the NY FED was reported higher: 10.2 v 6.2, the FED released this:, and at 9:15 Industrial production was reported lower: -0.1% v +1.0%. The market opened four points below Friday’s SPX 2040 record close, then tried to rally. At 10:30 the SPX hit 2042, then pulled back to 2034 by 11:30 before trying to rally again. At 1:30 the SPX hit 2043, then drifted lower to close at 2041.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.30%. Bonds lost 6 ticks, Crude slipped 30 cents. Gold slid $4, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. After the close on Friday FED governor Powell gave this speech: Tomorrow: the PPI at 8:30, the NAHB index at 10am, then Congressional testimony from the FED’s senior adviser Sullivan at 2pm.

The market started the week slightly lower, rallied to one point above Friday’s high, and then entered a trading range for the rest of the day. When this uptrend first began at SPX 1821 it rallied to 2024 with 13 consecutive days of higher lows. The next day it broke the previous day’s low, and now has managed to add only 22 points to that high in the last 10 trading days. Consolidation or a rounding uptrend top? This uptrend still looks similar to the uptrends after the February low and June 2013 low. Short term support remains at the 2019 pivot and SPX 2000, with resistance at SPX 2049 and the 2070 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day between neutral and overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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155 Responses to monday update

  1. scottycj1 says:

    Dow Transports did not confirm these new highs……have held the 1.382 B wave….and with oil dropping the way it has ? Trannies should be screaming.

  2. Anonymous says:

    Warning: Small caps are lagging badly.

  3. So 3 counts which I see that make sense at this point from an EW perspective…..we end here or somewhat higher and begin a C wave down….2nd we end in pivot range and start a more significant downturn………or we end in pivot range or somewhat higher and start a wave 2 down of around 80-100 points and then wave 3 begins and that would be a biggie………….

    • options
      1 P4 still in play up to 2095 and then C Down
      2. V of Major 3 of P3 is extending. 2070-2125 potential targets
      3 Others have this as wave 1 of 5 up. looking for wave 2 down 80 – 100 and then a 300 wave 3 up
      4. Others see this as the top of P3 to then start A f P4

      Probably several others, but these seem to be the top

      • sounds reasonable but I am basing those 3 scenarios on some other indicators such as VIX and NYMO……..both of which have pretty large divergences agains the SPX……I dont see the 2125 target in a B wave up at this point unless divergences are taken out…. 2095 could possibly be in the picture before a pullback……..only time will tell but these all seem at least reasonable…..some just can see this being a wave 1 of 5 as that will take us to unreasonable heights……..I agree with that thinking, never-the-less this thing could become even more unreasonable than it already is…..before a major crash takes place

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