SHORT TERM: quiet day, DOW -18
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4% again. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, but the market opened unchanged at SPX 2038. At 8:30 Retail sales were reported higher: +0.3% v -0.2%, Export prices lower: -0.9% v -0.2%, and Import prices lower: -0.2% v -0.1%. The market rose to SPX 2042 by 10am and then started to pullback. At 10am Consumer sentiment was reported at a seven year high: 89.4 v 86.9, and Business inventories were reported higher: +0.3% v +0.2%. By 10:30 the market hit SPX 2036, then rose to 2041 by 11am. After another pullback, this time to SPX 2035, the market rose into the close to end the week at 2040.
For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.25%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude rose $1.70, Gold rallied $28, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Last night the FED reported a decline in the Monetary base: $3.89tn v $3.98tn. Today the WLEI was reported lower again: 47.2% v 48.2%.
The market opened flat today, rose to SPX 2042, dipped to 2035, then spent the rest of the day in that narrow range. Yesterday we posted that the uptrend had now done three waves up from SPX 1821: 1898-1878-2046. A top at this level would suggest an a-b-c uptrend with a Major C downtrend to follow. Should the market go higher, after the pullback from SPX 2046 concluded, then an extension of Primary III would be likely underway. Today’s action added nothing to these two potential scenarios. Guess we need to wait for next week. Short term support is at the 2019 pivot and SPX 2000, with resistance at SPX 2049 and the 2070 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week at neutral. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market