thursday update

SHORT TERM: a day of clarity, DOW +41

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4% as well. US index futures bounced around overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 290k v 278k. The market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 2038 close, and continued higher. At 11am the SPX hit a new high at 2046, and then started to pullback. The pullback continued until 1:30, when the SPX hit 2030. Then the market rallied to SPX 2041 by 3:30 before closing at 2039.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.25%. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude lost $2.55, Gold added $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: Retail sales, Export/Import prices at 8:30, Consumer sentiment and Business inventories at 10am. Then a speech by FED governor Powell at 4pm.

The market opened higher today, made a new high at SPX 2046 in the morning, then pulled back to 2030 in the afternoon. While the pullback was only 16 points it cleared up the count on our short term charts. As we have noted for some time, it has been a bit difficult to quantify a count within this uptrend. We can now count three waves up from the SPX 1821 low to 2046. These three waves either conclude a Major wave B uptrend, or are three Minor waves of an Intermediate wave v uptrend. Should the market make new highs the extending Primary III becomes the main count. If not, the ongoing Primary IV is the main count. Last night we posted the extending Primary III count on the NDX charts. The NAZ continues to display the ongoing Primary IV. Short term support remains at the 2019 pivot and SPX 2000, with resistance at SPX 2049 and the 2070 pivot. Short term momentum declined to oversold during today’s pullback, and ended the day just above neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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211 Responses to thursday update

  1. wpmiii says:

    Do you happen to have one of your long term reports on the US$ planned for release anytime soon. tia

  2. Stock market at cross roads.

    If market falls to 19X5, X is secret number, then Taylor swift loves me.

    If it closes above 2040 by next friday, then Ariana Grande loves me. As simple as that.

  3. johnnymagicmoney says:

    god forbid if the market goes down more than .1% That would be so tragic

  4. fishonhook says:

    Ok guys what’s the consensus on the forum? Hold the shorts over the week-end or close them.

    • FiveStars says:

      I am long and staying long until end of year. I think selling will not begin until 2nd week of Jan 2015.

    • A bit too early to tell but if the market closes near its lows I would be more inclined to hold over the weekend. Less inclined if the stick save is on schedule.

    • blackjak100 says:

      Sure looks like a classic rounded top to me

    • CB says:

      imho, a bearish diamond forming intraday the last few days, (unless folks in the G20 are smoking something the said pot😉 and decide to do something really crazy over the weekend..

    • 16golfer says:

      I would say close them. Re-enter on Tues when we hit the 2063-2077 pivot

    • CB says:

      sorry, was in a hurry…forgot to use the punctuation marks.. ; )

      • 16golfer says:

        CB….not sure what the answer is. So many little kids are born into drug/alcohol addicted, single mother households and become a victim of their circumstances with hardly a snow balls’ chance in hell of breaking out of it. Cycle repeats….

      • CB says:

        Very true, golfer. Very complex problems, And they’re not necessarily a consequence of economic poverty. It’s deeper than that, isn’t it.

      • uncle10 says:

        golfer, the answer is easy to see to me. 1. decriminalize drugs and the crime rates would plummet— use the resources { money, people etc…} we currently spend on the back end – catching, trying, jailing and spend it on the front end- education, rehab,etc. 2. cut the defense budget on big hardware ( ships, planes, and tanks) in half at least. And spend that money on the front end- education, housing, health, etc.

    • Gary Lewis says:

      Up into the end of next week, then down to end of December

    • fotis2 says:

      Never know what Monday brings

  5. rabbittrader1 says:

    EXACTLY CORRECT We are in a BEAR MARKET RALLY in GOLD, and also will be in a BEAR MARKET RALLY in Crude Oil. After these top in December they will both proceed to NEW LOWS. Dont buy those gold coins and Silver dollars YET IMHO.

  6. uncle10 says:

    Thanks Mr. T.
    Honestly I just turned on CNBC a few minutes ago and what do I see but another poll on whether pot should be legal. 83% yes. bunch of …..🙂 reckon they are going to do a poll once a week??
    good weekend all

    • tony caldaro says:

      just goes to show
      how many hippies and millennials with iPhones trade stocks these days

    • 16golfer says:

      Legalize…Regulate….Tax it. Prisons are full of drug related offenders costing taxpayer in excess of $25,000 per year per inmate. I’m against drug use, but there’s a lot of profit in it for the pushers, so let’s put them out of business.

      • tony caldaro says:

        excess of $50K per year

      • tommyboys says:

        yep – 3 squares in a heated facility plus healthcare including dental and education etc…

      • mjtplayer says:

        I’m with you golfer, save money on prisons, legal/court system & DEA/police by legalizing pot; increase revenue by taxing it and selling permits to grow it. Works just fine in alcohol and tobacco, don’t see drug wars in tobacco.

        Look at the crime during prohibition vs. today’s alcohol market, yet another example of how gov’t fails to “control” anything efficiently.

      • uncle10 says:

        ah, Golfer, you looking for logical and rational….just another thing on the never ending list of things that make no sense.

      • 16golfer says:

        WOW! $50,000+ per year? Would go a long way in educating/rehabilitation.

      • tony caldaro says:

        they do not offer rehab

      • 16golfer says:

        I know, but instead of locking them up, send them off to a rehab center with a work & education program. Build them back up so they can be a productive part of society.

      • tony caldaro says:

        but incarceration in this country means putting people in a cage
        nothing more

      • CB says:

        I’d say spend more $$ on things like: maternity leave and early childhood programs’s much easier to bring up mentally healthy kids than to fix broken people…

      • tony caldaro says:

        Would you believe more than half of parolees are locked up again?
        Parole officers get a bonus for locking parolees up.
        The system is broken, and politicians cannot fix it.
        The prison system is big business

      • Gary Lewis says:

        fyi – we do throw a lot of money trying to reintegrate ex-offenders back into society . Department of Labor has the REXO program It’s not that the problem is not being addressed, a lot of study, research and money is being spent on this issue.

      • CB says:

        Tony, good point about the business aspects…the basic fact that drives that business, however, is that you can’t fix all you can do is lock some people up to protect the society. Psychopathy results from parenting mistakes, so perhaps the society needs to focus on that aspect..
        Too many teenagers getting pregnant, divorced etc…All those problems start early in life, and if there is no intervention early on it’s just to too late to fix them later..It’s sad that we have so many lost people in our society..And they’ve all been left behind in some way by their parents, that’s the really sad part & something to focus on.

      • purplember says:

        yea pot doesn’t lead to other problems like harder drugs, crime, driving while stoned etc…. what are these costs? I don’t think we understand the longer term effects of legalization yet

      • CB says:

        that’s interesting, Tony. So today we were like CNBC and the History Channel combined. : )

      • uncle10 says:

        purplember, its not the drugs that cause the crime its the laws that cause the crime. Just the opposite of what most people think or understand.

      • CB says:

        purple, good’s not harmless and young folks should know more about it

      • uncle10 says:

        CB, whether it is harmful or not has nothing to do with. just like alcohol and tobacco, and junk food and….
        It was accepted and used as a medicine and to help people with many issues in the past and it will be that way again…… ah, the cycles never end…..

      • CB says:

        Uncle, I think we both agree on the principles here. I agree with you that it should be a matter of personal responsibility & freedom. And medicinal use is not an issue. So you are quite right – if marijuana is legalized like tobacco/alcohol, there will be strict rules protecting kids, and since its sellers (and manufacturers) will potentially be liable for any harmful consequences (like with tobacco) there will be strict rules governing warning labels & distribution . And in a few years when more people choose to use it, we’ll learn much more about its long-term consequences. So it’s up to the voters to choose, and up to every adult to choose what they want to do. If there are any damages & costs, someone will suffer those consequences, and that needs to be determined upfront. Uncle Sam should not be expected to pay for future brain damage due to drug use, though. Also, what bothers me is that our gov/media are promoting drugs to our current “lost generation” as if we have nothing else to offer them. It happened in the 60s also, didn’t it…when drugs were somehow released from some government labs & widely popularized…Why would the gov. do that? Why not just lower taxes & help create jobs to make people happier in a real sense. Chemical illusions don’t solve any problems, only create more problems. Hopefully people can vote for real solutions. But, it’s Neptune in Pisces era now and for a few more years, so – as astrologers warn – there will be more drug use. I’d say, everyone should protect their health, that’s all.

  7. Gold doing a 3 of 3 today and silver up 6.8% off its daily lows. From what I can see most precious metal gurus who have been calling the bottom for quite a while have recently changed their tune and are now nearly uniform in their view that this is only a bear market rally. I’m in the same camp. But what do they say about the majority?

  8. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ WPP @ 202.42😉
    Enjoy your weekend all.

  9. chairman67 says:

  10. chairman67 says:

  11. selhai says:


    ECRI just updated the WLEI for the latest week – Growth down again, by 0.8%. Click on WLIW for the detail/charts. Personally, I don’t think the 5-yr chart looks all that scary atm, but it is sliding closer to Tony’s ‘level of interest’

  12. scottycj1 says:

    Don’t think the fireworks will start until next week on the downside. There is an astro event this weekend……that will likely be the trigger. Have a great weekend……

  13. buddyglove says:

    Hey all, fwiw I am folding my short here at b/e, as this mkt seems to only have two moves … up or sideways.
    Also, I am not seeing the gloom and doom that others see, and and still happy to be 70% globally invested in equity for med/longer term. good health/luck to all.

  14. rabbittrader1 says:

    Astrofib; I know nothing about your chart. Could you please tell me ,briefly, it’s meaning. I know cycles are probably ,(most likely ), influenced by planetary behavior Very curious about Astro Fib!

  15. scorp100 says:

    Hello Tony, could you please share your opinion about bulk shippers? Thanks!!

  16. Will WS blame the weather again for poor X-mas sales….. Hamlet Wisconsin already saw 48 inches of snow http:

  17. bouraq says:

    Some hope for bears here:

  18. Walter Crane says:

    CNBC saying we are gong higher because of a breakout on a megaphone pattern? Holy smokes, glad I bought the TVIX at slightly lower prices. This thing is about to turn imo. Might not get the downturn I was hoping for,but a turn is coming for sure when the major media is pumping the market.

    • Walter Crane says:

      In addition, notice how the media has not reported anything on Ebola lately? U think that has gone away? Course not, it only gets announced on day two of the scheduled bear run. Amazing indicator the BOT and paid for press is. Amazing indicatior.

      • tommyboys says:

        EBOLA was in the news three days ago. Patient in NY was released. There are NO cases of EBOLA currently in the US. Let’s stop the chronic chicken sh*t fear garbage. It’ll destroy you…

    • ewmarkets says:

      There hasn’t been any ebola news in the US so no surprise the media is not reporting anything. As soon as there is ebola news in the US, the media does report it, like an infected surgeon about to arrive at Nebraska tomorrow. Ebola is not going away in Africa but as long it poses no danger to the U.S. Economy, the stock market does not care. Malaria kills people too and half million die from it every year. But it does not spead to the U.S. Ebola has killed 5,000 so far, far cry from what malaria can do. If Ebola poses no threat to the US, the stock market won’t care. The dive to SPX coincided with Texas Ebola cases and the overreaction of the public. By the time the New York doctor was diagnosed, the market had realized that Ebola is really not that contagious in the early stages of a patient. As long as the patient gets a quick diagnosis and isolation, the chance of spreading is almost nil.

      • ewmarkets says:

        Texas Ebola cases and public’s overreaction coincided with the dive to SPX 1821. As long as those who travel from west Africa are monitored, Ebola will continue to be a nonevent for the stock market.

    • joecthetruthteller says:

      Another bad day for the bears – it’s the UNbelief on the part of bears that is pumping this market up.

  19. fotis2 says:

    It looks like rising wedge or ending diagonal on SPX i do believe it usually marks the penultimate wave maybe one more small rally to retest the break would be a good place to risk a short position potential target if it plays out 2000

  20. lunker1 says:

    3 down for abc for a and now abc up for b. watching for an .887 of yesterday’s high. Then abc down to complete micro a (?) to 2019 pivot range, bounce with micro b and drop to 1985/90 (38% and Daily 34EMA) for minute a (?). Labeling is approximate.

  21. rabbittrader1 says:

    FWIW; my target remains 1693 on DEC. 11TH .second possible target is 1639 DEC 18TH. tony 7 OTHERS MAY HAVE OTHER TARGETS. however the Die-HARD bulls will of course disagree. NOTHING guaranteed1

    • FiveStars says:

      I am beginning to think you are an 18 year old instead of 79. Your messages are now becoming noise, no credibility, so how old are you really? 79 or 18?

      • perceval7 says:

        Why does it matter to the bulls if Rabbit is wrong? This is a free blog. We get to post 3 comments a day. Tony’s repeated request is that we try to respect each other. Five, no disrespect to you either, you can post your opinions also, but why take a run at Rabbit. He has not been rude in his posts. This just creates bad blood all around. My grandfather taught me to respect my elders. In the event that Rabbit is in his 70’s, he has earned some respect……………….sorry a little preachy……… Best to the both of you, this is a stressful time with the tape so extended and the count so unclear. Emotions are at an extreme.

      • joecthetruthteller says:


        Rabbit has been consistently wrong but there is absolutely no need for your personal attack – which is below the belt – on him. Shame on you! Learn to respect others – even those who have constructive criticisms. You have violated Tony’s cardinal rule – therefore your post should get deleted.

      • FiveStars says:

        Sorry Rabbit, did not mean any harm.

    • Gary Lewis says:

      Rabbit, if we are in fact in P4 and not P5 or the unending P3, my first downside target remains in the 38% retracement area of P3, 166.86. But my gut tells me that me might go down to the 61,8% retracement area of 145. then we will be having the great debate as to whether this is P4 or the start of something bigger. As the market likes to confuse people, (and scare the hell out of them), to me this seems to be the most likely scenario. How long it will take to play out, who knows. The market will not fall under its own weight. There needs to be some kind of outside event to ignite the decline but as mentioned in another post, the news media seems complicit in this game. It is surprising how the Ebola story went dead although I’m sure it’s not.

      But I bought some calls yesterday JUST IN CASE the megaphone pattern is broken. This could be the beginning of some final blow off stage and after all the $$$ I put into puts, having some upside protection is just the cost of doing business. Hopefully, I bought the top😉

  22. klopharmd says:

    If this is a B wave are we still targeting 1600 or has it changed (up or down) because B was greater than expected?

  23. rabbittrader1 says:

    Last Song of The Bulls? ” Those Were the Day’s ,my friend: We Thought they’d Never End: We’d Sing And Dance Forever and a Day. : It was the Life we Choose; We thought We’d Never :Lose Those were the Day’s Oh YES Those WERE THE DAY’s !!

    • manunidhi21 says:

      Hi Rabbit..
      Even if I know ur count is right but from trading perspective you are 100 points above your last call to really do not put SL in your trading ?

      How you keep so much cool.

  24. hkloon says:

    Tony, given that 2046 on S&P may have ended the current uptrend, what is the probability assigned for minor 2 of int V to start vs Primary IV wave C? Still 55% to 45%?
    What could be timeframe the entire int V to complete? 3 months? thx…

  25. I agree with Tony: It can still be a large A-B-C


    • blackjak100 says:

      clear 3 down on your 15 min chart from 2046….better hope it’s a leading diagonal and we see a down day immediately out of the gate tomorrow. The retrace to 2041 was within typical normal retrace of a diagonal at 66% and looks like a complete a-b-c.+

  26. FiveStars says:

    The market is in a consolidation mode, all the -VE divergences you see will be cleared during this consolidation process. People now will be hedging in Oil sector before OPEC meeting which will make market to even a lot higher, a lot of oil companies are in SPX. PLUS it is Giddy up time of the year HO HO HO🙂

  27. torehund says:

    Lots of bears storming to the fountains, what happened to objectivity ?

  28. reddragonleo says:

    At this point I have to think we are going to the FP I have on the NYA of 11,334.65

  29. mjtplayer says:

    Daily engulfing doji candle today, could signal a turn. Looking at a daily chart of the SPX over the past several weeks, momentum has certainly waned and we appear to be in a potential rounded top.

    Martin Armstrong warning today of increased cycle of war activity and volatility next week, Nov 19th & 20th to be specific. VIX has been smashed back to the 12/13 area, wonder if Putin is buying puts again??

    • Player, there was no “Engulfing Doji” candle today. The $RUT came close, but if u look closely, today candle body failed to completely engulf the prior day’s candle body. Instead the $RUT record a “Dark Cloud Cover Doji,” and the greater the degree of penetration of the black real body’s close into the prior white real body, the greater the chance for a top. This near engulfment pattern is a major reversal signal and I expect it to follow through tomorrow

      • mjtplayer says:

        Matador – you’re right, SPY daily low yesterday missed the Wed low by 0.10pts; sorry bought that. Close! A simple doji either way, yes the .RUT had an under-performing day, possible dark cloud cover candle, but need confirmation today and highs can’t be breached.

    • torehund says:

      mjconcerning geopolics, there is currently a Cold war going on, and out ot the Norwegian coast new Russian airplances are circeling. Its just a sign that Putin no longer wants to let the US and Eurozone get a freebie and thats understandable…latter to the financial collapse of the Soviet union OTHERS have been eating pieces of their former empire. Putin says enough is enough, but the west just dont seem to get it.
      Its western harassment on foreign grounds and their greedy hands thats causing the conflict. Putins defence is justifiable morally as I see it, I dont see any GOOD guys in these money plays, they are just hoarding new grounds at the expense of Russia.

  30. mike7x says:

    The market is shouting something. Can you hear it?

    WHATTTT? Megawhattttt?

    • CB says:

      😆 that’s funny, Mike. Since we couldn’t even break out of the BBs, they’ve invented that megathing, instead…Wall Street has the best PR in the world..

    • joecthetruthteller says:


      Global money tsunami. . It seems like mega-banks are trying to rig virtually every market they are involved in – not only here in the US but across the globe – and yet we see no real jail time, slap-on-the-wrist penalties, and so on. And regulators refuse to wield the biggest cudgel they have – breaking up the behemoths! Even most of the public are unaware of what is working behind the curtains ( ’tis the usual suspects of course ) at the expense of WE the People.

      • torehund says:

        agree, just look at how the fat cats in HSB got away laundering Mexican drug money, just a fine and no jail time. Look, the Whole world is corrupt through the core even on an individual basis and its inhabitant too, it is not just a government issue… S who are you going to sue, the folks at thetop dictates and sheeps lower Down follows. We have a bubble in corruption and it isnt easy to change that. Its just the toaster that may fix it, and the Chinese running the world.

      • joecthetruthteller says:

        Who are you going to sue you ask? They have made themselves “un-sueable” I guess the first step would be to get rid of ALL the politicians who are aiding and abetting them ( but this too will be a daunting task simply because most People are still fast asleep )

        Also get rid of any and all those who hold dual citizenship in Congress – or in any position of power ( but this too will be next to impossible as they have ALREADY infiltrated our Govt.

        Since there are dual citizens in Congress AND in top levels of the Executive Branch, citizens may reasonably demand that all foreign citizenship be renounced as a condition of high political office – but cannot be done when most people are asleep at the wheel.

      • torehund says:

        Joe, me and Tony DID live in a world that is different to Yours, in Our time Word was honest and nowbody did attack you for doing the right Thing, it was normal. In the latter decades shitholes are the nice guys, and fraud, freezing out of folks like the Jehovas practices is concidered sound practice. I am sure Tony wants back, and me desperately; to honesty and a better world. Its all up to YOU, young folks, and your thinking brewing into the world that we want back.
        When everybody has good intentions, love happens, and thats what we are her for in the first place…

  31. manunidhi21 says:

    Namaste Tony!
    What can be the maximum correction points in 4 of Int v if we presume extending P3 ?
    say 20-30 points before it makes a new high completing int 5 .

    at what point we must consider it is C of P4 ..below 1999-2003.

  32. Tony,

    Do you review Bollinger Bands in your analysis? For several weeks the daily band width has been very wide. It seems like, bull or bear, we will need to consolidate for another week or two to contract the bands before another meaningful move can take place.

    Just a thought. Markets don’t always need to be blasting off or about to collapse🙂

  33. Thanks Tony!

    GDX and GDXJ look precarious after their countertrend rally (especiallly GDXJ.) The lower trendline of the bounces has broken today. Quite the setup. Am watching which way the dollar consolidation moves, but looks like the market wants to retest lows on the miners no matter what. .

  34. purplember says:

    the inverse relationship between oil and stock seems odd. with QE gone and if stocks going up cuz economy strong to stand on it’s own, why is oil dropping like a rock signaling a slowing economy? am I missing something?

    • tommyboys says:

      No odd at all. You have to look back more than a couple years to judge normal. There is no long term correlation between the two outside of coincident. It’s not demand its SUPPLY. We are finally producing almost as much as we’re using and soon will be net exporters. This is making OPEC nervous and is EXACTLY what nobody thought could be done just a few short years ago (peak oil)! This is fabulous and bullish for the economy. So much cynicism here.

      • tony caldaro says:

        Recessions occur when there are spikes in Crude prices, not declines.
        1980, 1990, 2001, 2008

      • Perhaps this big secular commodity decline is evidence we are now in a secular bull market in stocks rather than late in the secular bear? Historically wouldn’t that be more likely?

      • tony caldaro says:

        The decline in commodities further suggests deflationary pressures continue.
        Worldwide deflationary pressures will continue for most of this decade.
        As for equities in the US, the bottom was 2009.
        Cyclical equity bull markets start around the middle of secular inflation/deflation cycles. i.e. 1942, 1974, 2009

      • ocaj2000 says:


        Your numbers are way off. The US produces slightly more than 1/2 of what it consumes. Check the statistics maintained by the API on their web site. When the US becomes a net exporter is purely speculative but the earliest estimates I have read are in the 2030s assuming prices remain above the $90 level. If prices stay at the current level the frackers will start dropping like flies once existing wells deplete and production will drop dramatically. That is why the Saudis have dropped their price.

      • joecthetruthteller says:


        Yes, you are right – deflationary pressures are kicking in – NOT the inflation hype/jhysteria which is dying…..
        The Fed will do anything to stave off the next deflationary impulse because when that takes hold it is going to UNWIND the system, and they KNOW it. Why on earth do you think noted Hawk Bullard was trotted out the moment the market took a routine correction in October?

        On another note, yes the market has zoomed up like a rocket but don’t know why on earth anyone would want to even think of trading this currently sideways market, instead of simply waiting for some kind of confirmation. There is no evidence of a top in place and any pullbacks will be minor IMO

      • tommyboys says:

        Ocaj keep reading. Yes Saudi’s taking the opposite strategy they did in the 70s hoping we put ourselves out of business. – glut vs shortage. Last time they lost market share. Now they’d like to increase it but remains to be seen. But -US only 24-36 months away from net exporter…read up

    • torehund says:

      Purple, the dollah is on a run and to keep up demand the price has to declien some to keep price Even Steven in the eruozone, they aint getting crude on the cheap YOU are. Lossers are the oil comps.

    • torehund says:

      purple I tried to explain it earlier oil is only going Down in the US, to keep up With the dollar hike it has to fall. Europe isnt strong enough to pay more euros to get it, and if it rallies With dollar holding up economy has to improve. This dollar hike makes US stronger at the expense of europe just as it did in the 20s, think we are in for a repeat. Bets buys Florida real estate.

  35. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    My brother just told me that you can can’t chart a commodity. That must be why he’s under water on USO.😉

    • tony caldaro says:

      USO even underperforms WTIC

      • xscaler92646 says:

        Hey, don’t scare me. I just about 2000 USO at $28.30.

      • ocaj2000 says:


        Over the past few years USO has underperformed WTI because WTI has been in contango. They should perform comparably now that it is not.

      • tony caldaro says:

        that makes sense, let’s see if it does

      • joecthetruthteller says:


        Don’t scare me like that you say…..just when you thought we had seen the last of the Bush crime family, comes word from Sulzberger’s Slimes that Jeb Bush is being groomed as a possible candidate for the 2016 quadrennial freak show. This isn’t new to those who follow political developments closely – but it is the first time that ‘the paper of record’ has rolled out the Bush plan in a major way. Expect the rest of the piranha press to soon follow the lead of the ‘typhoid Mary’ of American journalism.

    • gtoptions says:

      correction, that should read “can’t”.
      WTI ~ 72 support. Below 65 and you will literally hear a calm across the plains as the drillers shut down.

      • tony caldaro says:

        Fear today is, Crude under $60 and Venezuela will default.
        Guess they will default.

      • CB says:

        a GS energy analyst said last week that they want to see $70 oil (which would stop shale oil production in the U.S, — a supposedly desired development(?)..
        When you really think about the whole issue, the resulting supply limitations will eventually lead to an increase in oil price…so, one could conclude that all this cyclical activity is being encouraged just to make oil traders happy, right?🙂 oh, plus they want to punish Putin, right. And now the Republicans will try to come up with some new tax incentives to encourage more drilling…..which will result in “too much oil” again ..Humans, huh? 😉

      • tony caldaro says:

        They will just call back GW to add to the strategic reserve at $110/bbl again

      • CB says:

        Good point Tony. EL-Erian was quite concerned about a possible 1998-like default actually, if, Russia & as you say, Tony, Venezuela get pushed too far…wondering how the Royal Saudi family is doing these days…I’ve thought they’ve needed $100 oil to survive…I guess they are just feeling lucky to be alive amid all the revolutions in the Middle East, so they’ll take whatever they are given..

      • tony caldaro says:

        Saudi’s cost of production is $10/bbl
        They can just print money if they need more to cover expenses

      • CB says:

        LOL…GW.. ..good one, Tony…Jeb Bush is still available ; ) …lot’s of talent in that family…

      • tony caldaro says:

        don’t scare me like that =)

      • My target for crude is $17/barrel.

  36. xscaler92646 says:

    Wow. Interesting times in EW land. B wave high or top of 3rd? RUT seems to be suggesting it. Well, Avi says:

    Are We There Yet?

    Yet again, the market approaches another resistance region, and backs away. But, we have seen this play out enough times to know we need confirmation that wave 2 has really begun. And, if it has, then it is setting us up for a potential opportunity on the long side for the next 5-8 months, which can easily exceed 300 points up.

    Today, just as the market came within 2 points of the 2048SPX long term Fibonacci extension level I have been speaking of for months now, I put out a wave alert noting that the market has now completed more than enough waves to consider a top in place for wave 1. Within minutes later, the market seemed to have heard and began backing away.

    As for these Fib levels, take note that the market almost always reacts to them initially. It does not mean it will not attempt to take it out again. But, it is the reaction we expect from these levels which make trading them much easier.

    From the cash index, we have strong resistance between the 2048-2053 region in the SPX. If the market is going to top in a wave 1, my expectation is that this level should not be breached, and we should see a strong downside follow through below our upper blue box support region. But, unfortunately, it will take a break down below that upper blue box to assure us that wave 2 is in progress, and then we can assess just how deep this wave 2 will drop.

    So, if we take a step back, and look at the bigger picture, we have no confirmation of any top in place yet, even though the market reacted strongly from the Fib extension we have been watching for months. If wave 2 is indeed in progress, then tomorrow should be a downside follow through day.


    2 Replies
    BaseCase – 60minES

    • xscaler92646 says:

      In other words, Avi says this is wave 1 of 5. Tony thinks we’re still potentially in wave 4 setting up this 5th. Pretzel thinks about the same with the possibility that this is the top of wave 5. I have no friggn’ idea.

      • xscaler92646 says:

        Gonna do a bigtime straddle on TNA

      • soulsurfer says:

        No need to be confused, because regardless of count, all -including me- expect a move down soon. Either a total retrace below the SPX 1821 low or say a 50-62% retrace. But, also remember that tops take time, and we may very well go sideways for another week. That would set up the bollinger bands nicely (squeeze) for a bigger move (down).

      • xscaler92646 says:

        Very funny. Is that a dig at a colleague? I tell ya, one of you guys is gonna make a name for yourself on this setup right here. I can’t remember when there was so much ambiguity between EW guys who are all typically in the same boat. Fun to watch. I made my whole year on TNA calls on that last bottom. So now just messing with the house’s money.

      • bhupal777 says:

        xscaler, Regarding your following statement…
        “I can’t remember when there was so much ambiguity between EW guys who are all typically in the same boat.”

        Really…go back and look at last couple of years of EW projections and counts by Tony, Avi and Prechter (you said Pretzel above). They all different. That is why EW is very subjective to a person who is labeling it. You put bunch of EW guys in one room they all come up with different counts. Take traditional technical analysis folks and mostly they would see the same trend lines, 200 day SMAs, triangles, H&S, channels, wedges etc….. For example take Prechter he has been calling one giant B wave because he is bearish one the market. So he kept on relabeling for the past 6 years when the market makes a new hight. At least he provides stop loss on every trade recommendation that he provides. Lucky his subscribers that he suggests his trades only on Weekly charts not hourly charts.

    • soulsurfer says:

      thanks for sharing! I am a little surprised that Avi doesn’t consider this pending top as either wave 3 of III or all of III as according to his own “pinball” method a 3rd wave hits the 1.382x (SPX 2048) or 1.618x (SPX 2215) extension:

  37. Gary Lewis says:

    Politically, we are setting up for another Budget showdown in Washington next month and my money is on another government shutdown. That plays well into an expected cycle low around December 19th.

    • JD C. says:

      I understand the concern, but I don’t think Republican’s want to be blamed (again) for a shutdown. Mitch McConnell said there wouldn’t be a shutdown when he gave a speech after winning his recent re-election. The next fight will be this immigration situation most likely.

  38. selhai says:

    With the SPX reaching 2046 today, this may be a good time to re-read soulsurfer’s ‘essay’ of August 25. Next stop 1778?? That would be 13%.

    • timmy321 says:

      Nice way to fit what you want? It says ” The funny thing is that these two numbers and important Fib-extensions are perfectly aligned at 2036, 1778, and 2482.”

      Why not 2020 and 1820 already took care of 2036 and 1778 and now we are headed to 2400+?

    • I continue to believe that Oex week will be a higher week. After that maybe a small correction, then higher thru year ending.

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      just read that report ………………… 666 ………….. crazy

      ever notice on the keyboard if you type 666 with the shift you get ^^^ (two horns and a tail) …………… that’s freaky

    • soulsurfer says:

      thanks selhai! slight correction though: the march 2009 low is rounded to the nearest whole number actually 667. So that makes: 667+667+667+38=2039.

      Note also that the 1.382x extension of Primary I measured from Primary II, as mentioned in my essay, @ SPX 2048 (which Avi. G. in his update as mentioned above by xscaler; and thank you for that xscaler) is now in play. Either major 3 tops at the 1.382x extension (3rd of a 3rd) and then 5 of III tops at 1.618x (SPX 2215) or all of III tops here.

    • The reason I have a different opinion about todays high is that sentiment indicator do verify this is a top.

  39. It is still not TOP. It can be pulled up substantially. 2046 break, will take much higher now. Bears, please start looking at 2015.

  40. johnjo12 says:

    Is deflation grabbing hold here ? . Oil down, Gold down, GBP & Euro weak. Only US indicies seem to be holding it all up at moment.

  41. JeffMilano says:

    Rabbit / my sytem gave a sell signal. Hope this helps.

  42. fotis2 says:

    Thanks Tony 3wave count makes it much clearer i have same on FTSE

  43. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Observations………… A) VIX has been up 3 days in a row here while the indicies have hit new highs and been in the green (divergence) B) Russell is at major resistance and was weak all day (almost a 1% differential between SPY while SPY in the green – ie divergence) C) TLT seems to have been basing for 9 days now at the 118.50 range forming a nice little short base to move off of going forward here D) Volume has been high on the selloffs and waning on the rises E) Fundamentally (and since this means the least these days) things are not that great globally and very little of the risk of Russia/Ukraine, European deflation/recession, Japanese deflation/desperate policy action, Chinese hard landing/speculation issues D) Here in the states you can pick your poison in my mind……………….either things arent that great and things need to be re-priced or they are and rates are moving higher which will create massive unwinds of all kinds of hot money flows which will create chaos for everyone

    Hence……………market SHOULD move down here fundamentally and technically but reatrds are retards so it could go to 2200

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