tuesday update

SHORT TERM: another quiet day, DOW +1

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.8%, mostly Japan. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened one point over yesterday’s SPX 2038 close. In the opening minutes the market dipped to SPX 2035, then rallied to 2041 by 11am. Then after a pullback to SPX 2036 by 1:30, the market moved higher to close at 2040.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.25%. Bonds lost 2 ticks, Crude added 20 cents, Gold rose $16, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Today long term investor sentiment (MMIS) reported a decline to 54.1% v 56.7%.  Tomorrow: Wholesale inventories at 10am.

The market opened slightly higher today, pulled back to SPX 2035 in the opening minutes, rallied to 2041 by 11am, and then stayed in that trading range for the rest of the day. Another small range bound day, with slightly higher highs. While the market has been drifting slightly higher these past several trading days. One would have thought that the daily overbought indicators would have been at least flattening out. But they have not. They remain quite overbought in the SPX/DOW, but with negative divergences in the NDX/NAZ. Short term support remains at the 2019 pivot and SPX 2000, with resistance at SPX 2049 and the 2070 pivot. Short term momentum has been drifting between neutral and overbought the last two days. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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122 Responses to tuesday update

  1. Kisshu2 says:

    magic bullish talisman day next wednesday hmm

  2. JeffMilano says:

    Rabbit, my trend system will not signal a sell today. In the morning it could have but the system is a closing price and is a function of rice and time. So Rabbit, not sell signal but keeps a buy still.

  3. scottycj1 says:

    Might have 2 more days of this quiet action before the decline starts……….we could be waiting on a weekend astro event.

  4. H D says:

    Tony, will you please ban the word TOP from the comments section? TIA :mrgreen:

    • budfox9450 says:

      Were you ref. to my use of the work “top”…???

    • pooch77 says:

      ha top ,toppy ,toppy…should of banned it 3 weeks ago

    • H D says:

      Not singling anybody out but 3 weeks of it is really old. At least include an Elvis story if you have too say TOP.

      • CB says:

        LOL 😆 b4 the ban takes effect, i’d like tO mention that quintuple top at 2039..OK. done 🙂

      • H D says:

        Hey CB! Mentioned the 2039 symmetry on Monday. I didn’t talk about Elvis so it got missed. Tony hasn’t missed a thing though. “only a 9-10 point range” Peace all.

      • CB says:

        good stuff HD, thanks! And Elvis has def. been in the building recently 😉
        And that El-Arian guy(formerly from Pimco) on Bloomberg last nite…well, he was talking a lot about the “disconnect” between commodity prices and stock prices..and about “valuations”…he must know something… ; )

      • H D says:

        CB, if he’s on TV he’s prolly smarter than what he is portraying, Commodities follow $ not stocks? I am moron and not on TV very often. I have a disconnect with almost anything fundamental.

      • CB says:

        hey that’s what makes you profitable HD 🙂 (God, pls let me be a moron like HD please) He meant commodity prices = economic growth..so a disconnect that has to be reconciled at some point…also that USD strength good for stocks indefinitely?… OK, at some point it starts to hurt U.S. exports and our big multinationals…maybe that’s why small caps have been so popular during this rally?.. r2k etc… small caps don’t rely on exports that much …but that’s fundamentals again.. so let me shut up right here…and yes, HD, you were on TV once 🙂 and you definitely had that “presence” 🙂

      • CB says:

        could also mean that commodity prices will take off from here because we have stronger econ. growth than reflected by depressed commodity prices…essentially both markets should send a similar message, not two conflicting ones…that’s how I understood what El-Erian said ( misspelled his name above ).
        He’s smart in more ways than one ….he quit Pimco after his daughter had written him a 20-point letter listing all the things he had missed in her life due to his busy professional life..that’s smart (after the fact) isn’t it? : ) Cheers guys! Thanks Tony!

    • tony caldaro says:

      the market is now officially topless 😉

  5. pooch77 says:

    Go green baby,8 more days till top

  6. budfox9450 says:

    at 3pm edt…11/12.
    The SP500 BoYu, has an indication of a
    top 11/11 at 2041. The confirmation signal
    line is not yet confimed though. Further,
    SP weakness, in the next 40 min, or a break
    below 2030 would confirm, a sell signal in
    place short term…the 9 ema is at 2018,
    below that level, 2018 would confirm a price
    top as well….Bud

  7. Tony, what Fibonacci multiple, is more common for the length of the B wave in on irregular flat, 1.236 or 1.382? Asking because if the 1.236 Fib multiple {B =1.236 x A = 2065 SPX) is more common, it fits best with your 2070 SPX pivot

    • tony caldaro says:

      most common, not sure

    • asaraniti says:

      I am paraphrasing David Halsey @ emini.com (highly, highly, highly recommend trying on a trial basis…also has a book in 2 printing entitled trading the measured move)…..” in computerized trading, the profit target is at the 123.6% level of the measured move”. Not saying this supports the SPX move to 2065, however, if the SPX prints that level, it would be wise to see how the markets react.

  8. Probably, should start looking at 2015.With year end approaching and fund managers looking for BONUSES, all looks lost for BEARS. Remember, Murphy’s law, anything that can go wrong will definitely go wrong. Last ray of hope was “Putin Shawl”. That also did not help.

  9. fishonhook says:

    I guess that was just wave C we had. Did you all cover at bottom , all of 6 points!

  10. klopharmd says:

    IWM is scaring me

  11. blackjak100 says:

    6pt SPX range yesterday and 7.5 pt range today….uneventful no volume days

    • uncle10 says:

      Thanks Tony.
      Thousands of things to trade everyday. I get a sense many people get too caught up with the “market” and miss many great opportunities in individual stocks. gl

      • tommyboys says:

        Yep…watch ATTU balance of week. About to bust out of a flag…free money here 🙂

      • uncle10 says:

        haha. love free money! 🙂 10K shares traded today? wow-thin to win…… thx tboys

      • tommyboys says:

        Well Unc if you like more liquidity have a go at CRNT! This thing has been taken to the woodshed in epic fashion while lacking just cause. More free cash!

  12. jeffbalin says:

    It should be noted that the last primary 2 lasted about 5 months. So far, it is not even 2 months. I’m pretty sure if I look at this blog in 2011, I would see much debate for 5 whole months about whether this is really primary 2, no way, yes way, bottom is in, top is in, etc. Not saying this is primary 4 for sure, just pointing out the time thing.

    But the fact that Tonys alternate count puts the 3 indices in alignment where before we had this weird 3 different count thing gives the alternate count a good possibility to me also. So, to me, it’s still a toss up. Might have the current 2 counts on the table for a while unfortunately. In the meantime trading shorter term with the help of all of you, thank you.

  13. blackjak100 says:

    Yesterday I mentioned I counted five complete waves at every degree at 2041 but was not ready to call top. With the overlap of 2034, it’s the earliest of the earliest indication of a trend change.

  14. Hi Tony,
    Have you heard the saying “the end is wedged into the beginning”? Think of a rams horn that is very narrow at one end and very broad and wide at the other. The idea is at times ones world feels as though it is narrowing and contracting due to natural causes i.e. life’s everyday struggles and is usually quite difficult to overcome. But, once we really struggle enough with faith we find ourselves suddenly having overcome what seemed to have been an impossible situation. Now, we see our horizons broadening and expanding hopeful for the future. Then, the cycle repeats itself over and over again. In the end if we look back we will find that those struggles were exactly and precisely what one needed in his/her life to raise us up and make us better people hopefully kinder and more cognizant of all our blessings in life. I was going to write about how this cycle of life is related to the stock market but I’ll leave that for another time. Have a good day!

    • selhai says:

      Somewhat in keeping with your thinking, a successful landing on the comet a few minutes ago. Such a feat, so far away!

    • JeffMilano says:

      Menechan / great quote, I will use your quote if you permit me to. I like to hear more about your thoughts on such subject. Please expandand your message. Thank you!

      • Hi Jeff,
        Thanks. However, its not my quote its a saying. The message is clear. But, if you want me to expand on how it relates to the stock market I will. The market has been trading in a very tight and narrow range. All I can tell you is that it appears to be finishing up many subdivisions of waves before moving on to something else, the next phase. Whether that is a sharp surge higher to end the rally or a simple rollover, we will soon find out. As Tony calls it, we are at an inflection point.

  15. JeffMilano says:

    Rabbit, my trending system will most likely generate a sell signal today. Will let you know after the end of the day or before the close. / Jeff

  16. I am now short Dow (YMZ) @ 17512. I do believe a short term top is in. I’m out if 17605 is taken out.

  17. ramdigitaldoc says:

    Hi Tony & All,
    Still a Newbie so this question may seem very basic.
    I thought that the major B of Primary IV could not exceed the previous high. I know Tony is carrying a 55-45% ratio of the new count vs the Primary IV count, but I don’t understand what Elliot Wave rule I am missing.
    Can someone gently fill me in. I keep reading posts that the C Wave down has begun when the next resistance pivot points are 2070.
    Thanks to all.
    BTW, I try to trade using intermediate signals, so that is why this is important to me. I went 50% long when we exceeded 2019.

  18. pooch77 says:

    8 more days to go for short term top,

  19. afarsid says:

    The big banks continue to steal money and ruin the economy. These guys will NEVER stop lying and cheating. And the penalties they pay… do the people who lose money because of their manipulation see any of that? Of course not. Don’t fine them, just ban them – in this case from forex trading, until they learn their lesson which I’m sure will never happen….

  20. lunker1 says:

    3 posts a day keeps the blog clog away. 😀

    • I don’t have time to post very often but care more about the QUALITY of one’s posts than the QUANTITY. Far more beneficial is the person who posts ten or twenty insightful/informative items than someone who posts three items of fluff.

      Anyone here confident that the long-awaited and widely-abandoned C wave has commenced?

      • berniebaruch says:

        It will start when people tire of attempting to call the top. Weak longs haven’t been flushed out in nearly 3 weeks. Its time for a quick smack in the face.

      • fotis2 says:

        All else being equal there should be some profit take today but as for wC i think too early to tell yet would need strong confirmation just my view and i could be wrong

    • joecthetruthteller says:


      OMG. Here comes the self appointed Sheriff of the Blog again – with her endless whining about 3 posts a day. Tony has already stated numerous times that ‘it’s a general guide line” Do you understand English?

  21. Topping action in the McClellan Oscillator caused by deceleration in the rise of the A-D ratio as well as the weak futures early Wed. morning are telling me that there will have to be some distinct corrective action and that the SPX etc. are not going to move straight up to new highs from the high level “line” consolidation that they appeared to be tracing out from the middle of last week through Mon. I guess I was a little delirious with fever last night to be that optimistic, but I am in a more realistic state of mind now.

  22. rabbittrader1 says:

    Rabbit Sell Signals: Have the 9.2 year and 41month stock market cycles (combined) Topped? YES. Did we fail to get through the 2040 – 2041 area predicted TOP on 11/11/11 AM ? YES. Were we in PRIMARY IV, B wave and now in a C wave down? YES. Was there congestion in the predicted 2032 to 2038 SPX area ? YES. Did anyone hear THE FAT LADY SING yesterday ?YES (Rabbit) Is there a chance for an”Abandoned Baby ” opening today?YES

  23. selhai says:


    While markets are relatively quiet, a reminder of the potential black swan circling around out there on the lake.

    Overnight, NATO Commander US General Breedlove, spoke to reporters, which I heard on the BBC World Service first thing this morning. It included that Russia is moving nuclear capability into Crimea, as well as howitzers and MRLs etc into eastern Ukraine. Nothing on the BBC’s website, but VoA does have it.

    You have to wonder whether Vlad the Impaler is engaged in a build-up for a major offensive some time in H1 2015, once winter is out of the way. Meantime. sanctions continue and their impact is being felt across many economies, particularly in Europe.


  24. Larry Young says:

    First post here.
    Just an observation for AAPL with Fib numbers:
    W5:56 (target 111)

  25. Oops, here’s the direct link to my new post on a couple 2014 IPO’s that have caught my eye as a value proposition http://www.endofbull.org/2014/11/11-11-2014-ipo-scoreboard-fmsa-opwr.html

  26. lunker1 says:

    the Dow Daily RSI5 signature looks similar to Sept and Dec

  27. new post up on a couple IPO’s from this year that caught my attention endofbull.org

    • tradeanimal says:

      Thanks for an informative report. I would like to add one more point – wages as a % of GDP has been dropping precipitously. This info was posted by someone on Business Insider a few months ago and is available on FRED but I just don’t know how to set it up. Maybe you can present it here. Thanks

  28. purplember says:

    the markets seem tired…. drifting higher on fumes ??

  29. pooch77 says:

    Looking for 2060-70 before pullback

  30. pooch77 says:

    Good one,especially for the reciepient

  31. torehund says:


    be aware thes upwards floating abcs dont always work unless its a part of a squeezy ascent..

  32. blackjak100 says:

    Narrowest range in SPX since oct 15th low….hmmm says jeff cooper

    • joecthetruthteller says:

      Market can remain overbought in a sideways market…..

    • bhtrade says:

      Predicted Markets ‏@PredictedMkts 18m18 minutes ago

      Tuesday’s 8 point trading range was the narrowest range seen in S&P futures in the 53 sessions since 27th August 2014 #stocks

  33. fotis2 says:

    Apeciated Tony I think tmrw will be Bday.

  34. wavecounter says:

    The Nasdaq appears to be poking its head above the congestion area/bull flag that has formed last few days (see Tony’s daily COMPQ chart). If it carries on upwards then the Dow/SPX should see new highs as well IMO.

  35. tradeanimal says:

    Thanks Tony…This is like the little engine or the Eveready Bunny!

  36. pooch77 says:

    Careful of the bear porn,we had 3 major Bradley turndates this year 1-1,7-16 11-20,1st 2 were highs,9 more days of up and possible pullback

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