friday update

SHORT TERM: marginal new highs, DOW +19

Overnight the Asian markets ended mixed. Europe opened higher but lost 0.5%. US index futures bounced around overnight, then rose after the monthly Payrolls report at 8:30. Payrolls were lower than expected: 214k v 248k, but the Unemployment rate ticked down again: 5.8% v 5.9%. The market opened one point below yesterday’s SPX 2031 close, ticked up to 2032, then pulled back to 2025 by 10:30. Around this time we had FED chair Yellen’s speech: The market then rallied to a new high at SPX 2034 by 1:30, and started to pullback. Around 1pm:, the FED released this. Then around 2pm FED governor Tarullo’s speech was released: Then at 3pm Consumer credit was reported higher: $15.9bn v $13.8bn. At 3:30 the SPX hit 2027, then bounced into the close to end the week at 2032.

Fay the SPX/DOW were +0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.10%. Bonds gained 21 ticks, Crude rose 50 cents, Gold rallied $31, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower again: 48.2% v 48.8%.

The market opened about flat today, bounced around, made a marginal new all time high, then pulled back some into the close. All in all, a quiet day despite a somewhat disappointing Payrolls report. After Tuesday’s first lower daily low, since the uptrend began, this market’s rise has certainly slowed down. During the previous two weeks the SPX had gained 4.1% and 2.7%. This week it will be up about 0.7%. We continue to count five waves up from the SPX 1821 low. Lots to cover in the weekend update. Short term support remains at the 2019 pivot and SPX 2000, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum put in another negative divergence today at the highs. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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49 Responses to friday update

  1. ewmarkets says:

  2. awesome update tony 🙂

    Look at teh USD dollar here ==> , this is not a one trick pony and could be BULLISH for stock into xmas.

    Remember :-

    Republicans win.
    Draghi and ECB ready to do more to save Europe.
    Massive QE in Japan.
    PM’s sinking into oblivion.
    Job market better than ever.
    Markets at all time highs.
    On the cusp of a big spending holiday season.
    Entering historically the most bullish stretch of the year.

    This will be interesting next few months. Obviously. Happy trading.

  3. soulsurfer says:

    Did a quick comparison between COMPQ, SPX and NYA. many cross currents IMHO. Only a big fat up or down week/month will reset the clock for all indices and align them…

  4. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony! Russia/Ukraine back on the table? Forbes says Vlad most powerful man in the world. Hmmm…

    • tony caldaro says:

      does the KGB own Forbes?

    • torehund says:

      Sure Mike, he has been bashing his own currency and Revenue creating industry to scoop it up on the cheap :)…..with good help from Obama and Merkel. The two closet communists (Putin and Merkel) met at the world cup event in Brasil, and latter to that there has been ONLY misery.
      Its like the funds With heavy interest in a certain company, they break it Down to scoop up before it makes sense for them to run it…

    • FiveStars says:

      Forbes has been bashing Obama ever since he was elected as president so nothing new.

    • joecthetruthteller says:

      Putin to the West–‘Russia won’t be Blackmailed’

      He is right. How can the US slap more sanctions on Russia while they are conducting Peace Talks with the Ukraine? Face it! Russia is next on the Target List.

      Without him US Israeli military machine would have rolled across Syria and Iraq long back! It is Israel and its Wall Street coffers that fuel conflicts for nourishment and drive USpolices.

      • joecthetruthteller says:

        Sorry but should have added —meanwhile we are going around the world attacking defenseless countries that have been NO threat to us whatsoever! Millions of civilians have already been murdered, including women, children,, babies and the elderly. Meanwhile, our soldiers come home in body bags, maimed or suicidal. What on earth has become to this once Christian country?

        MSM is full of lies, one lie after another.

        Google Shadow Govt in US.

      • There has been no KGB since the collapse of the USSR in 1991. The security agency of the Russian Federation is the FSB.

  5. JW says:

    Another very large selling on strength day of $1.0 billion for SPY. Since Oct 30th, the cumulative SOS for SPY has totaled $3.36 billion.

    • tommyboys says:

      Lol keep picking tops. We might pullback as its due but we’re in an historic bull market – consolidations are normal – get long and stop fighting it. It’ll top sometime over the coming year or two or three. No one can time the ST blips.

      • Tommyboys, You say stop calling tops and then you say “It’ll top sometime over the coming year or two or three.” LOL….This could have topped today, really who knows. I could wake up in Cmuchas Ferrari with a model tomorrow morning or in a year or two or three. In any event I can definitely understand why you are so optimistic it has been a massive bull run. Best of Luck!!

  6. JW says:

    For the last two weeks in a row, the weekly NYMO closed above its upper BB. This week, NYMO closed back below the upper BB. The last time that this happened was back in June/July of 2011. After a couple of weeks, the market had a significant pullback in July/August 2011:$NYMO&p=W&yr=3&mn=8&dy=0&id=t70484421065&a=373338766&r=1415401481368&cmd=print

    • soulsurfer says:

      darn JW, I as just looking at this as well, you beat me to it 😉

      On a weekly time-frame I counted, over the past 8 yrs, 5 instances where the weekly NYMO closed above it’s weekly BB. What happened in the following week, and the ensuing weeks after that?

      Fri July 1, 2011: SPX first rose from 1341 to 1356 in the week following, and then dropped from 1356 to 1074 (Primary II) in the ensuing weeks…
      Fri April 1, 2011: SPX first rose from 1319 to 1337 in the week following, then dropped to 1294 in the 3 weeks after, and went on to 1370 the next two weeks to peak for Primary I…
      Fri Febr 1, 2008 : SPX dropped from 1396 to 1316 in the week following, then dropped to 1257 in the 5 weeks after that, rallied to 1440 in the ensuing 9 weeks and then… well.. simply crashed to 667…
      Fri Aug 24, 2007: SPX dropped from 1481 to 1439 in the 2 weeks after, then rallied to the SC1 top in the ensuing weeks.
      Fri March 23, 2007: SPX dropped from 1439 to 1408 the week after, then rallied to 1555 the following months, followed by another drop to 1370…

      Hence, no clear-cut sequence, but given that this week was marginally higher, the 7/1/2011, 4/1/2011 resemble current market action the most.

      • JW says:

        Perhaps, but in combination with large selling on strength, extremely high bullish readings, negative divergences across multiple time frames, Tony’s B wave, and a strong astrology turn point next week, there should be some sort of pullback soon

        • soulsurfer says:

          Hi JW, I agree. The charts seem to favor the first option. Do note that all extreme readings eventually all let to (very) big declines, even after putting in marginal new highs. This NYMO behavior is thus more indicative of a pending peak then any long term continuation of an uptrend.

      • joecthetruthteller says:


        Negative divergences? Tony says that too. Negative divergences, that aren’t playing out over a longer time frame finally use themselves up and become meaningless!!

        However I will say this: McClellan Oscillator remains at elevated levels. Bulls should be comfortable UNTIL we start to see a divergence in the future where NYMO goes negative while the market holds up. That has usually led to mini corrections in the past.

      • FiveStars says:

        Amazing analysis Soul. Thanks

      • klopharmd says:

        In those examples, how many weeks did it close above the bb? This time it was 2 weeks.

        • soulsurfer says:

          none closed above the upper bb for 2 weeks. however, here we look at what happened with price once NYMO drops back inside the upper BB again. What happened prior is irrelevant as that would be a hindcast, not a forecast.

  7. So who thinks we are still in a B wave? Does anyone have hope for the almighty c wave to start as soon as Monday?

    • klopharmd says:

      Me. But they may hit us with a 6th wave to 2000 then a 7th to 2070 then kaput.
      Which, of course, means we’ll just hold there then advance to 2300. Costanza in full effect.

    • pooch77 says:

      I will give you one thought,ray Merriman the astro guru is looking for a 1# powerful rating reversal around the 12th.

    • pooch77 says:

      MERRIMAN……..4000 less than it was in 2000.

      Next week will witness one the strongest combinations of geocosmic signatures all year, when Mars will conjoin Pluto and both will form a square to Uranus (November 10-12). One day later, November 13, the Sun will square Jupiter. As discussed in last week’s column, “Whenever Mars, Jupiter, and Uranus are all involved in aspects in a short amount of time, larger than usual price swings are often evident. Expect another impressive fireworks display in financial markets.” This is followed by the end of Neptune’s retrograde motion. On Saturday, November 15, Neptune turns direct. That’s important. In “The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 3: Geocosmic Correlations to trading Cycles,” our studies showed that this signature had a 41% correlation to 50-week or greater cycles in U.S. stocks within only 5 trading days. I think that cycle just unfolded with the low of October 15-17 in most world indices. Nevertheless, it could coincide with a reversal that leads to the first correction in this new 50-week cycle.

      • randomacts4 says:

        November 15 plus 5 trading days = November 20 = Next Major Bradley Turn Date. Coincidence?

      • Nov 20 is very roughly when that large sunspot will complete its rotation around the sun if it sun survives that long. Not that it matters market wise just interesting.

      • Given AR 12192’s size, it may be possible to see the sunspot again when the active region faces the Earth once more in about two weeks. While there’s no guarantee of this, larger sunspots have historically stayed observable after the sun turns. For those interested in catching AR 12192, eclipse glasses are needed. Never look at the sun directly to avoid serious eye damage. from Nov 4th

    • torehund says:

      Newbie you wil get my gut feeling based on my experience in the nanocap market, and sure there is room for a decline on the RUT, however the shorts just cant harvest that many shares anymore on an artificial decline. The downturn has been so prolonged, so is it worthwhile for MM to dump any more shares, what Will the harvest be like ?
      Its what Works for the boots and the big funds, banks (or the FED if you like) that determines the strategy.
      And if the right ones have scooped up enough shares, (that means retailers and private investors are almost non-holders in a certain share) they run it hard With confidence. Just look at EGLE the BK shipper, it went 30 times on debth release; banks wouldnt give them a freebie, if there were a significant amount of retailers left in the Stock. In the end it idnt cost them a dime, as they had already scooped up just about all the shares….
      To pinpoint these moves is nothing but an art that can never be fully mastered, its the hunt, and thats where the excitement resides. So if anyone enters now, not in the high flyers but in the unloved ones, there is surely a possibility for more pain, but also good gains for the next year. Thats my opinion, and I have been wrong before.

    • joecthetruthteller says:


      I don’t know why you’ve been fixated on a “C” foreverrrrrr! Keep an eye on the Fed – Fed controls the Market. Fed told Congress “not to tamper with the Fed ” Global Money Tsunami is driving the USD and U.S. asset prices – scared foreign capital from all over the world is pouring into the U.S. Market.

      Richard Duncan: Why QE 4 Is Inevitable

      QE3 Finished. QE4 Coming Soon! Trillions of Debt Being Covered Up By the Fed!

      • torehund says:

        QE is a way to buy up all the stuff in the world, before anyone notices that all states are already bankrupt Beyond repair…All states Will turn their BK-fiats into whatever stuff looks most attractive, and preferably in the currency that is the last to succumb, and its the dollar. Us is the nation that has deflated their economy the most (housing ,stuff, wages, optimism) relative to inherent Productivity output. Easy.

  8. blackjak100 says:

    Thx Tony! Well by looking at this VIX line chart updated yesterday (not today), looks like VIX closed right on support today at 13.12. Did 2034 mark the top of rally? Maybe not but if we are close, the VIX should move higher next week.

  9. FiveStars says:

    Thanks Tony, have nice weekend.

  10. CB says:

    Thanks Tony!

  11. fotis2 says:

    Thanks Tony taking time into account could w5 be close to completing on Monday?

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