SHORT TERM: marginal new highs, DOW +19
Overnight the Asian markets ended mixed. Europe opened higher but lost 0.5%. US index futures bounced around overnight, then rose after the monthly Payrolls report at 8:30. Payrolls were lower than expected: 214k v 248k, but the Unemployment rate ticked down again: 5.8% v 5.9%. The market opened one point below yesterday’s SPX 2031 close, ticked up to 2032, then pulled back to 2025 by 10:30. Around this time we had FED chair Yellen’s speech: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20141107a.htm. The market then rallied to a new high at SPX 2034 by 1:30, and started to pullback. Around 1pm: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20141107a.htm, the FED released this. Then around 2pm FED governor Tarullo’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/tarullo20141107a.htm. Then at 3pm Consumer credit was reported higher: $15.9bn v $13.8bn. At 3:30 the SPX hit 2027, then bounced into the close to end the week at 2032.
Fay the SPX/DOW were +0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.10%. Bonds gained 21 ticks, Crude rose 50 cents, Gold rallied $31, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower again: 48.2% v 48.8%.
The market opened about flat today, bounced around, made a marginal new all time high, then pulled back some into the close. All in all, a quiet day despite a somewhat disappointing Payrolls report. After Tuesday’s first lower daily low, since the uptrend began, this market’s rise has certainly slowed down. During the previous two weeks the SPX had gained 4.1% and 2.7%. This week it will be up about 0.7%. We continue to count five waves up from the SPX 1821 low. Lots to cover in the weekend update. Short term support remains at the 2019 pivot and SPX 2000, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum put in another negative divergence today at the highs. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market