thursday update

SHORT TERM: market makes new highs, DOW +70

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.5%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.5%. US index futures were lower, then higher, overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 278k v 287k. The market opened one point above yesterday’s SPX 2023 record close. After ticking up to SPX 2025 it pulled back to 2016 just past 10am, then it started to rally. At 1:30 FED governor Powell’s speech was released: The market continued to rally into the afternoon, with only three point pull backs along the way. Nearing the close the SPX hit 2032, then ended the day at 2031.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.30%. Bonds lost 9 ticks, Crude slipped 70 cents, Gold added $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly Payrolls at 8:30 (est. +255k), a speech from FED chair Yellen at 10:15, a speech from FED governor Tarullo at 2:30, and Consumer credit at 3pm.

The market opened flat today, pulled back to SPX 2016, then rallied to new highs. We continue to count five waves up from the SPX 1821 downtrend low: 1898-1878-2024-2001-2032 so far. As noted yesterday we are giving the alternate count a higher probability, suggesting this uptrend will conclude as an impulse wave: 55%/45%. With the market clearing the tough 2019 pivot range today, there is not much resistance until the 2070 pivot. Also, should this fifth wave equal the first wave then SPX 2078 would be its likely target. Short term support is now at the 2019 pivot and SPX 2000, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum is quite overbought. Best to your Payrolls trading tomorrow!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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195 Responses to thursday update

  1. wonni89 says:

    I would like to invest money and I have heard that it should be very profitable to invest in gold. You are professional people at stock market and in your article you said: “Gold added $ 1”. So I am asking you, wether I should invest in Gold?

  2. $2044 SPX would be the first of the secondary weekly Big Up targets, the second is in the 2070’s, and I’ll figure that one out tonight. Nikkei had a daily Big Down set up which never triggered, and now looks more like a “pause that refreshes” as I’ve heard some call it. I call it low volume consolidation at the highs. Yen looks like it is trying to put in a swing low of sorts, but not sure I’d call it a Big Up. Looks like a reaction set up, maybe a 3-5 day drift, who knows? $SPX/$INDU look wedgie (technical term) but $RUT, $NDX, $COMPQ look like consolidation at the highs. Who knows?

  3. fishonhook says:

    We are down two points. That must have been C

  4. IAWT says:

    Rather the iv….dont to get the bears too excited…

  5. IAWT says:

    Look at the IV…thanks TC. I right with ya my man. Next decline should tell us the deal.

  6. uncle10 says:

    Thanks Tony, I heard yesterday on CNBC that there is speculation that Putin buys puts/shorts the market before he makes a move. I busted out and thought hey thats Tony’s line.
    All in short. very close stop. 🙂
    good weekend all.

    • buddyglove says:

      Do we have to see this drunken senile old timer everyday ?

    • I really like this guy. I don’t see any IHS, but its not a pattern I “look for” to be fair; but this guy draws a channel and uses it like a pro, and he uses highs and lows like a pro. Lot of folks here could benefit from paying attention to him. Not you G-Love, you got it goin’ on. But there are those who would benefit, assuming they paid attention.

      • mike7x says:

        Tim H. is the best technician in the MrTopStep group. He’s mostly a day-trader but some of his vids give useful projections. I’ve been subscribed to that YouTube channel for years.

  7. shauryagh says:

    Hi CN, is there a big down set-up on JPY yet ? Does the big down set-up still hold on Nikkie?

  8. SPX 15 min chart
    Rising wedge (ending Diagonal) in the 5th wave position should be terminal.

    • Also, money is flowing into bonds ie. ten yr treasury as well as bottom bollinger band on the daily SPX is starting to turn up after a widening of the bands. Both indicating an end to this leg up.

  9. US, UK & German bond yields have nosedived 4%-5% in the last 2.5 hours. Not so the Italian & Spanish etc. that the Draghmeister likes to buy. Gold rallying today also. Vat das dis mean?

  10. fionamargaret says:

    Good weekend Tony and all. xxx
    …all war talk in Europe… police your own number of posts.

    • simpleiam says:

      F, thanks for the link, but alarmed to hear that “all war talk in Europe”. Hope people don’t “talk themselves into it”. Would be a terrible thing…

  11. The SPY is going to 2200 …. NO WAIT!… It’s going to 666… NO WAIT! it might stay here. Just so there’s no confusion, I may be off by a few points. lol… Sorry.. it’s been a long week.

  12. klopharmd says:

    I bought the 2032 to 2027 dip.

  13. buddyglove says:

    Just watch them Jam this into the close imho.

  14. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Weekly 13/34 CCI +100 ~ Indication of a Very Strong Trend.
    GL & Good Weekend All

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