SHORT TERM: market makes new highs, DOW +70
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.5%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.5%. US index futures were lower, then higher, overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 278k v 287k. The market opened one point above yesterday’s SPX 2023 record close. After ticking up to SPX 2025 it pulled back to 2016 just past 10am, then it started to rally. At 1:30 FED governor Powell’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20141106a.htm. The market continued to rally into the afternoon, with only three point pull backs along the way. Nearing the close the SPX hit 2032, then ended the day at 2031.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.30%. Bonds lost 9 ticks, Crude slipped 70 cents, Gold added $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly Payrolls at 8:30 (est. +255k), a speech from FED chair Yellen at 10:15, a speech from FED governor Tarullo at 2:30, and Consumer credit at 3pm.
The market opened flat today, pulled back to SPX 2016, then rallied to new highs. We continue to count five waves up from the SPX 1821 downtrend low: 1898-1878-2024-2001-2032 so far. As noted yesterday we are giving the alternate count a higher probability, suggesting this uptrend will conclude as an impulse wave: 55%/45%. With the market clearing the tough 2019 pivot range today, there is not much resistance until the 2070 pivot. Also, should this fifth wave equal the first wave then SPX 2078 would be its likely target. Short term support is now at the 2019 pivot and SPX 2000, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum is quite overbought. Best to your Payrolls trading tomorrow!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market