wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +101

Overnight the Asian markets ended mixed. Europe opened higher and gained 1.6%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:15 the ADP index was reported higher: 230k v 213k. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2022, ticked up to 2024, and then began to pullback. At 10am ISM services were reported lower: 57.1 v 58.6. The market hit SPX 2016 at that time, bounced to 2021, then hit 2014 by 10:30. Then the market tried to move higher. At 1pm the SPX hit 2023, pulled back to 2016 by 1:30, then ended the day at 2024.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.55%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.05%. Bonds added 2 ticks, Crude rose $1.70, Gold dropped $24, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: the ECB meets, weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then a speech from FED governor Powell at 1:30.

The market gapped up today, hitting the all time high in the opening minutes. After getting slightly overbought the market pulled back to SPX 2014 by 10:30, then went into the opening hour trading range for the rest of the day. Previous gap up openings, during this uptrend, had all made higher highs later in the day. This euphoric rally now appears to be normalizing, which should make it easier to track.

After the opening we posted a tentative green 1-2-3-4 at the following levels: 1898-1878-2024-2001. With today’s high hitting 2024 we can now count five waves up from the 1821 low. This suggests the alternate count offered over the weekend now has a slight edge. Let’s call it 55%/45%. Should this uptrend end as an impulse wave, then the alternate count will be the most probable. Should this uptrend subdivide further ending with a corrective seven waves up, then the Major B scenario remains in place. Regardless of the outcome we are still in an uptrend until the market starts to show signs to the contrary. Best to your ECB trading tomorrow!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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168 Responses to wednesday update

  1. jeffbalin says:

    Higher highs, higher lows in Spx- Dow, but lower highs, lower lows in comp-rut. Who’s leading who

  2. John B says:

    from 1820 I have us in a 3rd, with potential 2036 area then we still have 4 and 5 left

    • robnaardin says:

      I got 1 ended at 2023,Wednesday morning and 2 was a double flat the ended at 2015 on Thursday morning.

  3. iamwhoiis says:

    FWIW: it appears as though OAS may be setting up to trigger a “big up” today. we’ll see how it closes…

  4. FiveStars says:

    Watch market to surge higher in last 1/2 hour.

  5. Libor Val says:

    2019 pivot is gone now we go to 2070 pivot. it is a beast.

  6. Walter Crane says:

    Another huge day on otc penny stock trading, that is what pays for my addiction to TVIX once a quarter plays. Far from bring stopped out. I know in my bones a crunch is coming but cannot label it to anyones satisfaction. Have caught five fast otc plays today. I have a skype board that scalps all day long. Its so fast and furious, it is NOT for the slow of hand or mind. TVIX for me is a relaxing play on the fattening of the cow.
    So far, just like last time, its out of the money, but I did post and boast at tvix when it was 2.75 and 2.65, it went down to 2.50 and I moved my stops, and held in. I am holding on for dear life here, not a biggie, down 4.5% so far. But its a big position. LIfe changer if I get what I think is comin to me.

  7. robnaardin says:

    SPX hourly macd just turned bullish. 4 was 2001.

  8. scottycj1 says:

    This is what B waves do and are famous for. Remember 1.382 times A is possible. 2095. The Gann 1X1 is at 2069 today…….That line is as high as the mkt should go. Bulls see new highs and all is fine in the world. Then out of nowhere the plunge starts and the dip buyers come back….but it keeps going down. There is a lot of technical damage done to the market. I think its also likely (50-50) we are finishing a short 5 here. This is why I like puts and calls with TIME. Makes it easier to be off by a few days.

  9. cicelyalaska says:

    Next, 0% mortgages. They are going to keep churning this thing higher.

  10. most recent market update (found within blog’s comments sect.):

    JNUG: closed another 1.25% short alloc at 3.18 for a 68% profit. Https:// #investing, #gold, #money 3 hours ago

  11. cmucha68 says:

    Livermore always said it:” The market is there to fool everybody anytime”.

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