SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +101
Overnight the Asian markets ended mixed. Europe opened higher and gained 1.6%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:15 the ADP index was reported higher: 230k v 213k. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2022, ticked up to 2024, and then began to pullback. At 10am ISM services were reported lower: 57.1 v 58.6. The market hit SPX 2016 at that time, bounced to 2021, then hit 2014 by 10:30. Then the market tried to move higher. At 1pm the SPX hit 2023, pulled back to 2016 by 1:30, then ended the day at 2024.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.55%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.05%. Bonds added 2 ticks, Crude rose $1.70, Gold dropped $24, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: the ECB meets, weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then a speech from FED governor Powell at 1:30.
The market gapped up today, hitting the all time high in the opening minutes. After getting slightly overbought the market pulled back to SPX 2014 by 10:30, then went into the opening hour trading range for the rest of the day. Previous gap up openings, during this uptrend, had all made higher highs later in the day. This euphoric rally now appears to be normalizing, which should make it easier to track.
After the opening we posted a tentative green 1-2-3-4 at the following levels: 1898-1878-2024-2001. With today’s high hitting 2024 we can now count five waves up from the 1821 low. This suggests the alternate count offered over the weekend now has a slight edge. Let’s call it 55%/45%. Should this uptrend end as an impulse wave, then the alternate count will be the most probable. Should this uptrend subdivide further ending with a corrective seven waves up, then the Major B scenario remains in place. Regardless of the outcome we are still in an uptrend until the market starts to show signs to the contrary. Best to your ECB trading tomorrow!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market