tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW +18

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.8%, mostly Japan. Europe opened lower and lost 1.0% for the second day in a row. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 the Trade deficit was reported larger: -$43.0bn v -$40.1bn. The market gapped down to SPX 2013 at the open, ticked up to 2015, dipped to 2011, then bounced to 2016 by 10am. The SPX had closed at 2018 yesterday. Also at 10am Factory orders were reported lower: -0.4% v -0.8%. The market then declined to SPX 2001 by 11am. After that it had a rally to SPX 2012 by 12:30, a pullback to 2007 by 1:30, then another rally to 2014 by 2pm. The choppy activity continued as the market pulled back to SPX 2009 by 2:30, then bounced to close at 2012.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.30%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude lost $1.65, Gold added $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance still at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: ADP at 8:15, then ISM Services at 10am.

The market gapped down at the open today for the third time during this uptrend. After bouncing around in the first hour the market dropped to SPX 2001. Another, of several, 20+ point pullbacks during this uptrend. However, what was different today is that the uptrend failed to make a higher daily high and higher low. In fact, for the first time in thirteen days the market made a lower high and lower low than the day before. Is the character of this uptrend changing. After the low of the day the market then recovered some of the decline in the afternoon. Short term support remains at SPX 2000 and the 1973 pivot, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Short term momentum hit oversold for the first time during this entire uptrend, then finished the day at neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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205 Responses to tuesday update

  1. torehund says:

    seems like nat gas and coal plus uranium have just been waitng for a real bottom to be made in crude, usd also quite oversold near term. Could be the concerted push off a grinding bottom in energy…

  2. reddragonleo says:

    Cup and Handle pattern on SPX not supported by MACD’s and Histogram bars: http://screencast.com/t/qTMOj8Ssy

  3. fishonhook says:

    If the S and P does NOT blast off from here we have some negative divergence building on the daily (until now it has only been on 60 min on the rally)


  4. Looked on the charts for OEW… there is a green labeling for 5 up with a Major A label still present…

    Does that equate to a 5 up for an A of MAJOR B (if it happens)? Or is it in fact removing P3 and having 4 of P3 completed at the recent low? is green 5 to be assumed the 2070 pivot or could that be the final c of MAJOR B (again if that is what I am putting in my head is what the OEW guys are looking at)

    Thank you

  5. lunker1 says:

    Triangle or flat for green 4?

  6. Walter Crane says:

    My penny stock purchase of the morning is up 260% doing better than my TVIX which is up from purchase only 2.6%.

  7. uncle10 says:

    Thanks Tony.
    just saw on CNBC lunch time poll 80% in favor of legalizing pot. bunch of pot smokers watching I guess? 😉 haha

  8. tomocius says:

    There is an technical indicator where the S&P 500 is up three months later 17 times out of 18 since 1942, up six months later 18 times out of 18, and up 12 months later 18 times out of 18. The only condition this technical indicator has to meet is a particular political-calendar date, i.e., mid-term election day, which happens to be today.

  9. soulsurfer says:

    interesting, objective, factual, looking at the internals story, which I prefer too::

  10. jeffbalin says:

    Hit the top of Tonys upper trend line on the Dow perfectly and neg div on the 60 min, way oversold on daily.. Now the drop? However, that is a higher high higher low, higher then the high from 2 days ago, which could mean uptrend in place. But have not eclipsed highs from 2 days ago on spx or comp. Wait and see, still borderline call at the moment.

  11. If the alternate bullish count is in fact playing out, it looks like an ending diagonal is forming for the 5th wave. This is common when the 3rd wave is very strong and has come too far too fast. The possible result is that we only get a marginal new high before a downward correction.

  12. H D says:

    I suspect the first thing the GOP will do is go after ACA and try to strip 9 million Americans of Healthcare.

    There might be a trade there. I’d watch the healthcare ETF’s most have rallied over 100% since the law passed.

  13. JeffMilano says:

    I cannot find the forum / I know it is on Yahoo. tx

  14. Walter Crane says:

    By the way, low on tvix was 2.75….Hmmm another 77….. If this ain’t the top today, well, I will be stunned…. Wouldn’t be the first time.

  15. ariez5 says:

    Tony, could you extend those trend lines on your Dow charts?

  16. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ WR1 @ 202.18 ~ Next WR2 @ 203.81
    Daily 34/CCI screaming cover your shorts! 😉

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