weekend update


After last week’s big gain SPX 1887 to 1965, the market rallied strongly again this week. Monday, however, started the week with a gap down to SPX 1951. The market then rallied to SPX 1991 just before the FOMC statement, ending QE 3, on Wednesday. Then after an initial pullback to SPX 1969, the market rallied for the rest of the week, helped by a gap up on Friday, to SPX 2018. For the week the SPX/DOW were +3.1%, the NDX/NAZ were +3.1%, and the DJ World index was +2.5%. On the economic front there was a higher than expected report for Q3, and positive reports ended slightly higher. On the uptick: pending homes sales, consumer confidence/sentiment, Q3 GDP, personal income, PCE prices, and the Chicago PMI. On the downtick: durable goods orders, Case-Shiller, personal spending, the WLEI, the monetary base, and unemployment claims rose. Next week will be highlighted by monthly Payrolls, ISM and Auto sales.

LONG TERM: bull market

The 2009 bull market continues to unfold, despite the fact that it turned in a surprising performance to the upside these past two weeks. We continue to count this bull market as Cycle wave [1] with five Primary waves. Primary waves I and II clearly completed in 2011. However, Primary III may not have topped in September as expected. In fact it may be extending again. While OEW can quantify the long term trend, and the medium term trends that create bull and bear markets. We can only offer wave counts based upon the wave formations, and their probabilities. Bull and bear markets can, and do at times, extend or truncate. While we do work diligently, using all information at our disposal, to provide the most probable/conservative count. We do get surprised from time to time.


While we have, successfully, been using a count that fit all four major indices for most of this year. Recent market action has brought it into question. We had counted five waves up from the February low and expected the September top to be the end of Primary III. The market did sell off, having its largest correction in more than two years. But it quickly turned, and has now rallied 12 successive days with higher lows and higher/equal highs. This kind of market activity has rarely occurred during this bull market. And, usually when it did the market was in either Major wave 3 of Primary I, or Major wave 3 of Primary III. With this in mind we must now consider an alternate count that fits with the current market activity.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

From the SPX 1821 low we have counted three waves up into the recent highs. The market has moved so quickly that it has been difficult to track the smaller waves within these three waves. Nevertheless, we will continue to carry the current Primary IV count, until such time as five waves appear in this uptrend. At that time we will favor the alternate count.


As noted above the recent downtrend was the largest correction in over two years. The 9.8% decline was more similar to the 10.2% correction in mid-2012 than any other correction since that time. All six corrections, since mid-2012, have been between 4.3% and 8.9%. This suggests the recent correction and the mid-2012 correction may be of a similar degree. Since that correction was Intermediate wave ii of Major 3. We started our analysis with the assumption that the recent correction could have been Intermediate wave iv of Major 3, and proceeded from there. When we took into account the technical features of this bull market, the wave structure, and then we arrived at an alternate count. A count that fits all four major indices.


This count suggests the market is currently in Intermediate wave v of Major wave 3. Notice how up until mid-2013 the wave structure was quite simple with: Major waves 1-2, Int. waves i-ii, and Minor waves 1-2-3-4. The most obvious count would have been to expect Minor 5 to complete during the following uptrend. It did not. Not only did it not complete it started to subdivide into five Minute waves. Then when Minute wave v appeared, it subdivided as well. Clearly this was impossible to anticipate regardless of the method. However, this does help explain the erratic behavior of the DOW during that entire period of time. The continuous overlapping waves were forming a diagonal triangle Minor wave 5. The charts of these alternate counts are at the extreme end of the public charts: link below. Medium term support is at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots.



After completing a somewhat complex zigzag from SPX 2019 to 1821 in three weeks, the market abruptly reversed into one of the best rallies during the entire bull market. We initially expected a choppy rally off the SPX 1821 low. But when it made such quick upside progress we quickly aborted that idea. Our upside targets were the OEW 1956 and 1973 pivots for this uptrend. The market took only seven days to clear the 1956 pivot. When it do so we noticed every trading day had a higher high and higher low than the day before. That trend continued throughout this week as well, even though Monday’s high only matched Friday’s.


We continue to count three waves up from the SPX 1821 low: 1898-1878-2018 so far. This third wave has already exceeded a 1.618 relationship to the first wave, when it passed SPX 2003. Quite frankly, this is looking more like a third wave up than a c wave of a larger B wave rally. As noted above, we will maintain two counts until either the market heads back down towards the lows, or continues higher to form five waves up. Should the market continue higher we see Fibonacci resistance in the SPX 2080’s area. This is just above the OEW 2070 pivot. If you have been playing this uptrend to the long side – kudos! Short term support is at SPX 2000 and the 1973 pivot, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Short term momentum continues to display negative divergences, but the pullbacks have been small.


Asian markets were all higher for the week, gaining 3.2%.

European market were mostly higher, gaining 1.6%.

The Commodity equity group were all higher, gaining 3.4%.

The DJ World index gained 2.5%.


Bonds appear to be down trending and lost 0.5% on the week.

Crude is still down trending and lost 0.9% on the week.

Gold resumed its downtrend losing 4.8% on the week.

The USD is still up trending and gained 1.4% on the week.


Monday: ISM manufacturing, Construction spending and Auto sales at 10am. Tuesday: Trade deficit and Factory orders. Wednesday: the ADP index and ISM services. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims, and a speech from FED governor Powell. Friday: monthly Payrolls, Consumer credit, plus speeches from FED chair Yellen and FED governor Tarullo. Busy week. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

GUIDELINES: https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2014/11/01/guidelines-how-to-use-this-site/

About tony caldaro

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373 Responses to weekend update

  1. BABA is smashing all expectations to upside–Unconfirmed reports…

  2. Potential reversal warning shot. Today potential reversal doji looking similar to the Sept 19th (BABA IPO day) doji……Just saying

  3. rc1269 says:

    Anybody know when the last time was we saw this kind of divergence in crude and spx? Fall 2006 perhaps?

  4. uncle10 says:

    Thanks Mr .T.
    Geez lots comments……. maybe you should add that we try to limit each persons post to no more than 3 per day. I think some of the newbies may not know the rule/suggestion. thx.

  5. Walter Crane says:

    Its all based on Mm’s and Specialists and code. Pretty esoteric stuff…. Lets see if am right, so far, so good.

  6. Walter Crane says:

    Tell you what….. If I am right email me at craner36@hotmail.com

  7. I see oil falling of the cliff. Can anyone tell me at what price oil will hurt the stock market and The WLEI keeps dropping. Under 50. At what number does this have to get to to effect the stock market. Thanks in advance

  8. Now please admit, there are some intelligent people on this board. I would like to know who sold at 2024.46 (which is top for next 14 years)?? FYI: I did not sell at that price

    • cmucha68 says:

      Bought puts from 2021 up to 2024 SPX. Either I make a killing or get killed 😊

      • I remember, you are the one who drives in Ferrari? Correct? ASA, I read that you own Ferrari, I went looking for my Bicycle. My bicycle was not there. Cruel Janet Yellen has created income equality!!

        Jokes apart, congrats. But depends on PUT expiry date?

      • cmucha68 says:

        November 14 2020 strike puts Shrihas. I’m driving a lot with my bicycle too. Don’t know but have a feeling market has problems for now to reach new highs without pulling back. Even if it is only back to 2000 it’s ok for some small gain.

  9. fotis2 says:

    I think we should label this the BOJ wave

  10. Walter Crane says:

    Had to help myself to some TVIX again at 2.79. Just way toooooo yummy here. But today is NOT the day. But she IS this week imnho.

  11. klopharmd says:

    I bought the 2024 to 2021 dip.

  12. fotis2 says:

    Was expecting a pullback to retest of support to go long but this just keeps going up i wonder where will it stop its got to come to a halt sometime??Or maybe another ‘pleasent bit of news’ is about to suprise us again.

  13. New highs, shocker… not! That said, 13 f ibonacci trading day top likely ahead of elections for you short termers. Long termers, Primary 5 continues unabated from Oct Primary 4 lows…

  14. reddragonleo says:

    The FP on the SPY from September 19th showing 202.45 has now been hit and is currently the high of the day. While I’ve noticed in the past that FP’s are usually pierced by a little bit before a turn in the other direction this one has not done that… yet.

    If it ends up being the high for today then we could start our pullback Tuesday. It’s certainly strange to see an “exact” hit of the FP and would be strange if that was the high but you it could be as simple as that?

    • mrgreen2010 says:

      Thank you red. I have noticed that on a few individual equities also some do seem to come back to trade to FP others do not for as much as I have noticed in the time I was watching. How do you determine time of retest like Jan even though it hit today…just curious.

      • reddragonleo says:

        When I made the comments on the image we down below 1900 (if I recall?) and I was only expecting a 50% retrace from 1821 for the B wave up and then the move down to mid 1700’s, so I was just guessing on the FP being hit in early 2015. I had no idea that we’d hit it 2 weeks later. It’s hit now and fulfilled, so disregard the text in the image now.

    • Gary Lewis says:

      That is unreal!!! Perhaps the 666 flashes also were foreshadowing. Staying short!!!

  15. bhtrade says:

    Bull minus bear current +26%. 3 weeks ago -54%

    200 point SPX rally finally got the most influential bloggers net bullish

  16. mrgreen2010 says:

    No gap down with halting continuation upward. No trade. 2030-2034 next? The VIX is diverging in a minor way…nothing to hang a hat on one way or the other. Choppy consolidation week?

  17. johnnymagicmoney says:

    mentality in a nutshell

    data is bad Fed supportive = more stimulus = good = buy
    data is bad Fed not supportive = Fed will be supportive at some point = good = buy
    data is good Fed supportive = Fed wants to stay supportive and economy is healed = good = buy
    data is good fed not supportive =economy is healed and if it isnt Fed will then be supportive = good = buy

    Yeah lets all go long for another 2 or 3% after it has gone up 11% in like 13 days or so ………..that makes tremedous sense………………

    • mrgreen2010 says:

      Mentality been that way for two years now…yes it is getting old.

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        what I find hysterical is how the JAPs mean anything to anyone………….does anyone look at their currency, coupled with their consumption tax plans coupled with their demographics coupled with their crappy export numbers (even when their currency has been crushed) because of the negative feedback loop their exporters are subjected to because Japan has no raw materials???? Its like no one even evaluates the slightest bit what is going on their…………its like “read headline, read word stimulus, think good, think buy, do buy, me robot, we robots, everyone robots, buy, buy, buy”

    • buddyglove says:

      JohnnyM, Why tie your brain in knots trying to figure out try the why? and the how?, it is the road to madness and the poorhouse, try and trust your charts more, and you will see success with a lot less effort GL.

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        I get what you are saying Love but its like the old adage “if everyone is jumping off the bridge will you too” I just cant go long with all the problems, delusion, risk, and where prices are right now at this moment coupled with further possible upside and possible downside targets short term. I don’t have to go short either………..I am just saying this guy right here isnt going to chase it and won’t on principal add to the long pockets at this juncture and I am not alone. No poor house here……………just not buying what other people are selling. Not me – count me out.

    • simpleiam says:

      Not nearly as concerned with Fed as I am ECB right now.

  18. klopharmd says:

    We’re so screwed. Shorts that is. Oh well. Everyone to the other side of the boat!

  19. johnnymagicmoney says:

    what I find hysterical is how the street finds central banking as a pure positive event or better yet how they can’t see the desperation of the Japs and how their QE is bringing their end quicker (not healing). There is no questioning what it is they are doing. QE = awesome = more gains = take more risk. I just think the logic behind that is so ridicuously flawed. I am in cash (not trying to short this right now) but regardles of anyone’s fibs, or RSI’s or MACD’s, or dailys or weeklys or monthlys or whatever I don’t know how anyone in their right mind wants to go long either. It complete and utter hot potato like never ever before. This is a mentality bubble if you ask me………….the mentality is gonna pop one day and those who lose faith will look at the rot and say where did it come from? Uh it was there the whole time it just took you a while to accept it. I can’t take risk regardless of how far dumb dumbs want to push it. Cant in my heart buy this crap evryone believes. I will wait for people to wake up and stop sniffing glue.

    • teej911 says:

      I think that is the underlying tone of people seasoned and young trying to invest right now. Emotions here are high and a lot of opinions on whether to be bullish or bearish but as you put it and I think most here are really feeling is, how long can a market be bullish w/ no major/meaningful correction? I am no longer short and I will not be going long either. Maybe when there are a few more indicators the cliff may not be as near as it feels I will go long but today is not the day.

  20. Gary Lewis says:

    I’ve read in some places where they look at Fibonacci numbers for the length of a move. Today is 13 days. Next Fib # would be 21? Eight more days of up? Think that it’s time to head of to the beach for a couple of weeks and let this all blow over. It will, won’t it? 😉

  21. jeffbalin says:

    It’s sort of funny really, I guess we are all still kids at heart, but many incredible, intelligent professional traders here lately, going off, rants, taunts, blaming, jabs etc. like children, We can all switch gears at any time and the proof is here. Pretty interesting from a psychological point of view.

    But if you can get past the mess, or, have time to do that, I have found a few simple valuable posts here today…..CN, Two sided tape, and many of the other daily regulars, and of course, the mvp blog owner. Thank you for posting, and helping the dumb guys (me).

  22. bhupal777 says:

    Those who follow sentiment based inflection turns…..Wave A started on $BABA IPO date. Tomorrow is $BABA first earnings report. May be sentiment will turn negative and kicks off Wave B?

    BTW based on TA indicators I believe that this uptrend continues and I am looking for entries in $EWJ and $EPI.

    GL all.

  23. infantguru says:

    There has to be a time for a reprieve for this rally.
    From the look of the (SPY) candlesticks only, I can smell a cloud forming, though am early with today’s formation. However, with my indicators going strongly green and with the weekly hammer in, I would probably think it to be the harbinger of 4th that TC’s been looking for to put the alternate on the map and not the C though.
    In such a scenario, we should be pushing up to the spy 214’s after the cloud scatters.

  24. JeffMilano says:

    Phil, I hear what you are saying. I tried ew with different people but did nog work for me. Does that mean that therefore does not work for everyone. For some people it may work. Tony does not tell you you must ttade on my orders, like your mechanical system. You are free to discard what Tony sayes and do the opposite. Many on the board hVe mechanical systems like bud fox. His seams likd a pretty good system, but he does not go out and create a Tribunal. You have been fissolutioned with EW and becayse this is a free blog you want to put Tony on trial of some kind. Who ard you to ask for some focuments. Are you setting your self as a judge. GROW UP KIT.
    You need to excuse your self for your emotional bias to a person that gives for free and who is very kind.

    • joecthetruthteller says:


      Instead of flying off the handle, and constantly telling posters who disagree with you to grow up – why don’t YOU grow up and read Phillipe’s post in its entirety. Is objectivity and TRUTH so terribly difficult for you to bear?

      Phil, please stick around and let us know of your trades. Thanks

  25. Walter Crane says:

    Going all in TVIX this week, all three accounts… Not monday or tuesday however.

    • mrgreen2010 says:

      Hello Walter,
      I am curious, the TVIX seems to suffer time decay just like VIX calls can but not as much and also the upside seems limited relative calls and to volatilty spikes in the past. When I buy volatilty I typically look at VIX calls 5-6 weeks out with the goal of being in-the-money. The pay-off was huge last month but took me four months to get there from mid-July. How long out are you looking at TVIX? I am already in VIX calls..just wondering for next time or if I have a rollover. Maybe go long TVIX instead of calls if I have a 2 month horizon. They are at 2.79 now while DEC 25’s @ 0.45

  26. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    You should transition OEW to an emotionless and error free computer algorithm, maybe that will ease the minds of the haters.😉
    SPY ~ WPP @ 199.54 ~ WR1 @ 202.18
    Gl All

  27. blackjak100 says:

    Extended 5th fav count from 1958 (wave 4)…1991-1969-2021 (almost exactly 1.618 * wave 1 (1958-1991).

    Looking for correction to 2005ish before a run to 2035-2050 to possibly end Major 5. See Fiona’s post last night as to why this is a decent possibility.

  28. simpleiam says:

    The 1st Time Homebuyers Rept that was just announced only reaffirms what young people, those with good jobs, keep telling me, “Owning a home is not a priority for us”. They will buy the home if they like it and the price is reasonable, but even in parts of US where growth is taking place, there is overbuilding as there was in the 1970’s-80’s. I saw it with my own 4 eyes back then and I’m seeing it now. This is esp. the case north of Houston near the new XOM campus, prices are up as much as 50% in some cases over what residents paid before 2009 for the same sq. ft. Only so many of these homes have sold and the rest of the personnel being forced to move to keep their jobs are renting.

    The priorities of the younger generation in The USA, and therefore what was once considered important metrics, are changing, at least temporarily. Perhaps permanently. IMO.

    • blackjak100 says:

      I’m in the homebuilding industry and we do 75% of the work for largest homebuilder by far in Minneapolis – Lennar. We were crazy busy from feb-August, but now they have too much inventory in every community so we slow way down. Overbuilding at its best and not having a clue how to manage inventory.

      • purplember says:

        i have many rental properties and selling an entry level house in the Midwest for $65,000. small but nice clean house with garage. been selling for 9 months. first time homebuyers realtor told us is dead. there are many houses just like mine sitting on market. first time home buyers: either rent or don’t qualify for loan.

      • simpleiam says:

        Interesting and valuable info BJ, thanks. All I know is what people tell me and measure that against what they do. Is a slow down in MN during these Fall/Winter months normal? Given the weather in your area I would think so. What is not normal here is the overly exuberant rise in home prices, and Buyer bidding wars taking place; multiple Buyers offering contracts well above Sellers asking price. It’s ridiculous. For the most part, it seems to be coming to an end now, and young people are and have been refusing to pay such prices for a 1st home, or any home for that matter. Perhaps common sense has taken hold in the younger generation. The Kids Are Alright – The Who

      • simpleiam says:

        Very interesting purplember. The difference here in my area is that the young people who might be interested in buying have good jobs and DO qualify for loans. They’re refusing to over pay for any reason, therefore, the 1st Time market is dead on the vine.

      • purplember says:

        simple, housing in Midwest is cheap; not overpriced especially under the $150k range. we never saw a housing boom in 05-07 and no bust in 09. house pmt on 65k house is like $390 month but they pay $675 for rent (same house). seems like they needed a personal finance class in school lol !!

      • simpleiam says:

        indeedy purple. seems like the range of attitudes and finances is extreme.

        With regard to renting, I’ve only been a landlord twice and I have to salute those like you who must have infinite patience to make it a livelihood, or supplement to job. I never want to landlord again! An enormous responsibility!

      • purplember says:

        simpleiam, interesting you say that. selling all my low end houses cuz too many headaches as you know. own some executive type homes with high end clients (rent to doctor & PA). however, I mainly do commercial real estate.

      • simpleiam says:

        I hear ya, purple.

  29. JK1987 says:

    Tony Thanks
    Can Major B with new record high? If so, what’s it?
    Or oew should have the alternate count as main?

  30. mjtplayer says:

    Yen losing another 1.52pts to the Dollar this a.m., that’s on top of the 3pts it lost on Friday and now trading in the high 113’s from the low 109’s Thursday evening.

    Watch the Yen, it may not stop falling

    • buddyglove says:

      Strongly agree….looking for Usd/Jpy 13000 by march 2015.

      • I am leaning toward the Irregular B also. After a little more run up after the election, you will see Obama get out his pen and phone and the reality that Congress is not needed will hit America. Then the reality is that with the major cities and states very blue you may never need Congress again. Big correction next week after a pop up this week.

  31. trondack says:

    Does OEW track central bank interest rates? I noticed many bulls are ended by rate increases from that market’s central bank ( etc. Japan around 1989 ). Have you correlated central banks to a market’s P4. thanks for the site!

  32. Philippe V says:

    Someone said “I will refrain from feeding the monkey” but, what’s the fun of going to the zoo if you can’t feed the monkeys 
    But before that and before receiving nasty comments from the diehard regulars who will ask me to stick to market and trading comments, let me offer my trading position and before that how I generate it.
    A few years ago I developed a dual signal algorithm based on a combination of multiple technical indicators. I tested it going 35 years back and it gave astonishing results, with only one down year in 1995 where it lost 9.5%, all the others being positive, mostly in double digits and some in the 40% to 80% range. At the beginning, I showed it to some financial institutions who were interested but refused to license it as it was considered more data fitting that mean reverting. For those who don’t know what I am talking about, in a nutshell, mean reverting carries less risk than data fitting as eventually it obviously reverts to mean values whereas data fitting can just stop working from one day to the next. I spare you the details but needless to say that it is well parametered and monitored and that it has stayed all these years within its own risk boundaries.
    It’s obviously not easy to use as it requires to completely surrender all your market bias to a machine but that’s exactly why I developed it in the first place !
    In mid-2012, I have licensed it to several institutions and they have steadily been adding their discretionary client’s money into it.
    It only generates the signal at market close so my positions are taken as MOC on the nearest SP futures contract. For the sake of simplicity, I give you my latest trades based on SPX:
    4-Sep-14 – Long at 1’997.65
    18-Sep-14 – Short at 2’011.36
    25-Sep-14 – Long at 1’965.99
    6-Oct-14 – Short at 1’964.82
    17-Oct-14 – Long at 1’886.76
    30-Oct-14 – Short at 1’994.65
    It is not uncommon for the system to be in the red by 3 or 4% before it reverses, so the latest short position initiated on Oct 30th at 1’994.65 could be losing for a few days before it reverses or gets closed for a loss. But the point is that my system is short.
    Now, that being said, I now feel free to feed the monkey !
    I discovered EW in the early 80’s and to my greatest dismay I was immediately hooked. To make a long story short, I lost a fortune using EW and it was like a vicious drug, impossible to get away from it even though I knew it was destroying me. I managed to get away from it but was always checking on Prechter and his team and browsing the net for alternative views. This is when I discovered Tony’s blog.
    So refreshing to see one could be an Elliotician without being bearish !
    But I quickly realized that Tony’s interpretation was as skewed as Prechter only in reverse.
    The key to Ton’y apparent success is not his better interpretation of EW, it is simply that his preconceived idea of the market became bullish and stayed bullish beyond Prechter.
    They both made the same call in March 09 but Precther turned bearish quickly whereas Tony’s kept being bullish.
    Don’t be fooled though, both use the waves to fit their preconceived idea of the market, not the other way around.
    The biggest argument I read on the blog is that Tony’s is selfless and offers his market analysis for free. Does that exonerate him form criticism ? Of course not !
    If you get free healthcare does it mean you can’t argue with the doctor’s diagnosis ? You should just shut your mouth and get sicker or die because it’s free !?
    Here are a few of the criticism / comments I would make about this blog:
    • From his own admission, Tony says OEW is used to give a long term road map then why post a daily update and expose yourself to obvious market gyrations and inevitable forecast inaccuracies ?
    • Adjusting means you are never wrong. You just switch to an alternate view and Tony does that very often and I must add, very late in his count. As we can see it in the Week-End Update “ With this in mind we must now consider an alternate count that fits with the current market activity.” It took him 200 PX points to consider an alternate !
    • Tony is extremely stubborn and rarely if ever apologizes for his mistakes, again for the Week-End Update: “While we do work diligently, using all information at our disposal, to provide the most probable/conservative count. We do get surprised from time to time.” That’s about as much of an apology for getting his count wrong and creating an outburst on the blog as you will get: “We get surprised from time to time” !! It’s the same with Prechter / Hochberg, all these Ellioticians have a god complex and never admit their mistakes. Then again, most would reply that he is the king of the castle and his advice s offered for free so just deal with it !
    • Back in 2012, Tony called for the end of the bull market in Q3 of 2013. Someone told him there wasn’t enough time to pack all the remaining waves in his timeframe but he stuck to his stubborn view that made no sense at all, only to push his call for the end of the bull market forward in time every other month as the market kept creeping up.
    • His pivots are not statistically significant as they only randomly coincide with relevant waves tops and bottoms. Even if some blog participants would find them useful, sometimes there are so many pivots and their range is so wide that they become useless for trading purposes.
    • As someone said recently, if Tony was so good, he would have been offered a golden bridge from Goldman or one of the big firms because, believe me they read his blog. The fact that he is happy to collect $1’000 for teaching one on one is a sure sign that he isn’t making enough with his trading, some form of Pygmallion complex excluded.
    • Finally, for Tony to show his true colors, I invite him to post his trades in real time then, once people have seen how he is able to really transform his analysis in hard trading profit, then switch the blog to a high monthly paying subscription and let people truly benefit from his method. After all, isn’t it why we are in this business to start with ? To make money, not to pat ourselves on the back after deciphering the right count one or two years after the fact ?
    I could go on and on, but I will stop here, I think you got the drift.
    It is nonetheless of a very interesting and entertaining blog. Some of the participants are very smart and offer a very bright take on the market. Soulsurfer is one of them but it is a shame he tries to get too deep into his wave counting. But the top award goes to CN. He is the brightest guy around, smart, cultured, writes well. His “Big Up / Big Down” system is absolutely incomprehensible but it seems to work wonders. It’s a shame he is got such a monkey on his back.
    Best to your trading.

    • firedance says:

      My post of not feeding the monkey was not directed at Tony. Tony is a great guy. I was referring to the monkeys who come and make mischief here on he blog and the more you feed them the more they come back. So that is what I meant. Don’t even reply to the mischief makers, even in admonishment because they will continue to come back

    • cmucha68 says:

      I brought up the same critical points beforehand. And mostly the response from the Apostles is “why are you here if you don’t like it”. Well, everybody is free to read what he wants and to make up his own picture about something before being able to argue in favour or against something. The truth is Tony will never change his attitude or way of working as he has done it for many years in the same way. People will come and go like they have done before. I also have never seen anyone offering his service or view about the markets ever revealing whether he was trading himself or not. If you don’t take positions yourself in the markets and display it publicly it’s always much easier to talk.

      . I disagree a bit with your view on soulsurfer. He is not better or worse than most serious hard working wave counter. His work is ok sometimes but nothing where I would consider him exceptional. The consequence is we monkeys have to feed ourselves and leaving the others how they are. In the long run it will be always the survival of the fittest in the markets.

      • Gary Lewis says:

        C – you’re back! Hope you had a nice weekend🙂

      • cmucha68 says:

        Hi Gary, was fine. hope you enjoyed it as well. Even I will not participate too much here, One good thing I would like to add: as long as people do not insult each other but having an intense debate about the markets this place can be considered as one of the hottest blogs. People will enjoy it when there is a hefty verbal fighting between Bulls and bears. However it never makes sense if people come up and just say ” I see price going to 1800 or 2100 in a a short time, I’m sure, you will see” etc. without plausible argument.

    • buddyglove says:

      I like Tony and this blog, but I have to say a lot of the comments above are fair criticism. However please lets leave this alone now and move on.

    • joecthetruthteller says:


      Wow! What an interesting post. I totally agree that when you make a mistake, just admit it quickly. There is nothing wrong with constructive criticism IMO. Everyone can choose to read OR ignore any post. The more ideas the better. An idea isn’t right or wrong just because it comes from a certain individual. It would be nice if we could freely have an exchange of different ideas and learn from each other as it contributes to the whole.

      As Financialreportsblog said so well:

      October 31, 2014 at 10:06 pm
      Thanks Tony, look forward to your weekend update as usual!
      Everybody keep posting, all input is of value. This has definitely become one of the best reads on the web.

    • Gary Lewis says:

      In my world, unless someone holds him/herself out as a registered investment adviser, everything that they put on a website cannot be considered to be anything more than “for entertainment purposes only.”

      Kudos to Tony for hosting such a great forum with such a diversity of opinions. And Phillippe, congrats on selling your system to the big guys. I’ll look forward to your future market insight. And Kudos to CN, your following continues to grow.

    • FiveStars says:

      Philippe V: You should have posted a link instead of long essay, I read half way thru then I lost interest, it was not worth reading a head🙂
      PS: I like this blog that’s why I keep coming back here day after day. Tony and others give a lot of valuable information and guidance.

    • scottycj1 says:

      As you said EW is a necessary evil—–11-4 cit

    • fishonhook says:

      Phillipe that was a fair post IMVHO and as you can see the reaction hasn’t been too violent. However I don’t think Tony has been too bullish, on the contrary the early call to the end of the cycle in 2013 tells me that looks at both sides and is more likely to call it as he sees it, right or wrong.

      I would add two more things OEW , like EW is backward looking. Nevertheless Tony has made some good long term calls on the USD, Commodities and Gold which I wish I had paid more attention to.

      Hope you stick around and post more.

    • 7dayyss says:

      That’s just Erka under a new name. Valid or not, the fact that we use stops, tells us individually, that we can all be wrong on trades from our own analysis, whatever that might be. It’s rather disingenous to suggest that only OEW or EW will always lose you money/blowout your account.
      How many times have we been subjected to false breakouts on indexes or individual names, or chart patterns didn’t materialize the way we thought they would, especially with backing from our favorite indicators, whatever an individual uses. We’ve all “adjusted and adapted” a new position from a losing one. Hell, we’d all be broke if we didn’t.
      So really, what’s the beef with “monitor and adjust.” Let’s just let it be!

    • No need for it to be absolutely incomprehensible. Start here:

  33. shauryagh says:

    I am sensing a lot of hope against hope in favor of the short side in these comments …if this indeed is an accurate sample of how the universe of traders is feeling then the top is several 100 points higher on the dow …maybe even a thousand points higher….Looking at the comments I have no choice but to retract my earlier statement ” we will see 1650 before 2050″….urs truly

  34. mrgreen2010 says:

    With the USD/JPY up 50 pips and doing opposite carry SPX futures are down 3 towards the end of the Asian trading session it looks like a gap down opening could form on cash Monday morning provided the London session behaves the same.
    For a move to short ideally I would like to see a gap that opens a bit lower than Thursdays high (but not too much lower) in SPY and/or QQQ, that way I can employ a tighter stop on a sell above Thursdays high at the open of about the middle of the gap. If it is truely an exhaustion island reversal/evening star/abandoned baby set-up there should be little if any retrace of the opening down gap. A smaller gap down open means a stop just above Fridays high. Looking for a target of 1950 by end of the week and take 1/2 profit if 1973 area hit. If end of week closes at 1950 then a weekly doublsticks sell is in play and stop lowered to 1973 to let the rest ride for a full retrace. Thats the plan anyway. GL

  35. hkloon says:

    1) Noticed the DAX alternate count suggesting int IV just completed.
    2) DAX Primary II dropped 35%, Primary IV will be more or less same? If yes, then that could be one heck of Euro problem…
    3) If this is indeed alternate count of intermediates… would you expect the entire bull extends in time?
    many thanks.

  36. simpleiam says:

    One more post for this thread. It has over 250 already, so I’d like to offer a brief, poetic reminder:

    Can it B?
    We shall see.
    3 is the key.

    GL All.

  37. rabbittrader1 says:

    As someone pointed out here (today) 80% (or more) of fund managers, mutual funds and hedge funds have not performed any where near as well as the S&P 500 index this year. They have .redeemed themselves in the last three weeks to some extent,. But because they have NO CLUE what the market will do next , they will lock in profits by selling next week. then sit and buy the next major dip.(They will not go short however), most cannot by their charter. So we will see a drop next week into early December . By the way the United Nations Directive for all Nations to stop burning fossil fuels by the year 2100 is good for alternative energy , but must be done before that time.. Well before that, the burning of Fossil fuels will have to stop as a necessary life saving measure for all animal species on EARTH. ( The U. N. knows this) they just need time to give us the TRUTH gently.. This is why I remain a BULL on alternative ,energy sources like FUEL CELL ENERGY (FCEL), Ballard Power (BLDP),Solar Power Nevada (SOPW) . Looking for the “ABANDONED BABY” , tommorrow A,M.. . Yours, Rabbit

  38. rabbittrader1 says:

    pooch77- “So when do traders/investors realize the desperation of Japan? Probably the same time they realize the desperation of: , the European Economic Union The U.S Federal RESERVE, the U.K. , Brazil, and most of the rest of the WORLD . Maybe Monday Morning???

    • hkloon says:

      Tony, first of all thanks for the continuous update…
      Just a side note:- my kids have been telling me a cartoon character they came upon recently (in fact whole of last week) – Ninjago… little do I realise it is linked to Japan’s Nikkei/Yen….🙂

  39. rabbittrader1 says:

    Walter Crane: Regarding your belief that we will see a top next week (but not . Monday or Tuesday ) I believe you could be right , but I give it only a small probability) I do not think it matters too much, as long as a top occurs SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.

  40. pooch77 says:

    So when do traders,investors realize the desperation of Japan

    • joecthetruthteller says:


      I think the Market will retreat on Tues/Wed IMHO. We’ll see.

    • buddyglove says:

      The “desperation” of Japan is not an issue traders need concern themselves with.
      Japans QE is mega bullish for stocks and Europe will follow soon.
      The Global runaway Bull has a long way to go imho.

  41. playitkool says:

    Tony, thank you for being here day in and day out .

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