friday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +195

Overnight the Asian markets gained 2.8%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.9%. US index futures were sharply higher overnight. At 8:30 the PCE was reported higher: +0.1% v +0.1%, Personal income was reported higher: +0.2% v +0.3%, but spending was lower: -0.2% v +0.5%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2011. It had closed at SPX 1995 yesterday. Within the opening minutes it rose to SPX 2014, then dipped to 2009 just past 10am, before moving higher. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported higher: 66.2 v 60.5. Then at 10am Consumer sentiment was also reported higher: 86.9 v 86.4. By 11:30 the SPX hit 2017. After a pull back to SPX 2011 by 3:30, it then rallied to 2018 to end the day.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.40%. Bonds lost 8 ticks, Crude dropped 40 cents, Gold fell $25, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Last night the FED reported a decline in the Monetary base: $3.976tn v $4.114tn. Today the WLEI was reported lower again: 48.8% v 49.9%.

Markets rallied overnight on a surprise increase in the monetary expansion by the Bank of Japan. The US market gapped up to SPX 2011, bounced around a bit, and then moved higher. The current uptrend has now gone 12 days of higher lows and equal/higher highs. Quite surprising considering we thought the probabilities suggested this to be a Major B wave rally of an ongoing Primary IV. We were obviously wrong as Primary III appears to be extending yet again. We spent most of the day attempting to unravel how the recent market action fits within the context of the overall bull market. We will report our findings in the weekend update.

Despite what appeared to be a highly probable setup for Primary IV. For the second year in a row it has eluded us again. We thought Primary III had topped around this time last year as well. The market extended higher then, and extended higher again this time as well. By the tone of some of the recent comments on the blog, there appears to be a misunderstanding on how to use the information we provide. We will be posting some general guidelines to hopefully prevent these misunderstandings from occurring in the future. For now, we can just say that we only trade, not day trade, what we post, and lost money during this unexpected rally beyond the OEW 1973 pivot. Also, keep in mind we are dealing with probabilities, not guarantees. The information we provide is not to be considered trading recommendations. We are just tracking the markets as they unfold. More on this over the weekend. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend continues

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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214 Responses to friday update

  1. My system aligned with Tony on the way down of potential P4, and I exited quickly. Where I differed was how fast I realized the correction was over. It was clear to me early on, and I got long, increasing on the way up. It seems OEW sticks with a scenario for too much time, which can be fatal for traders (hope is not a strategy). Either that or OEW calls the pivots too quickly. My own opinion is that OEW is calling the Pivots too soon. Tony jumped the gun on P4 even before the early August low was taken out. This is not OEW, but was influenced by his thinking on other matters. If OEW is not for day trading or quick swing trading, then it makes no sense to be early on Pivot calls. My advice is to slow down the calls. People may object, but if OEW is valid, getting the call right is more important than when the correct call is made.

  2. I am not an elliotician like many here, just have a basic understanding of it. I believe P3 could travel to 1.618 of P1 and maybe more. I don’t know and will only know when when price shows me P3 is done. But lets say P3 trades 1.618 of P1 this puts the SPX at 2213.5 to end P3. However, I use EW as a road map for possible price action and don’t believe price has to follow the count, because price will do the exact opposite of what you think. The last twos weeks has been a good example of why trying to pick a top can hurt ones trading account when not using a stop. Here is a count I currently have for the spx, may or may not workout??? but will use a stop to show me when I am wrong and not at max pain. I look at fractals too and the spx seems to be on a similar path gold traded 2008-2011. This fractal suggests the spx could go strait up and trade 2200 rather quickly, similar to July & August 2011 where gold made a blow off top. The question I have, could the spx experience a similar blow off top November & December 2014 to end P3? Gold 2008-2011 to SPX 2011-2014 possible fractal.

  3. cmucha68 says:

    I agree, everyone must take responsibility in his own hands. When trading options or futures you can be burned many times and get whipsawed already within small times frames like major or minute waves. 30-40 points in spx can burn a big hole into your position or account if not attentive. That has nothing to do with an opinion of Tony or whomever. More important is the entire discussion about this recent movements and where we are. People are still divided whether we move up a lot from here or if this huge and fast run has lost steam and we are heading back south.

    Some say now that P5 just had begun. If this EW/OEW ever made sense then P3 had ended at 2019 last time and P4 had ended at 1820 and since then P5 is underway. That means P5 is already 200 points old !!!

    If the high in spx will be exceeded by 1 point then P3 has never ended and if not P4 has never ended ?? Makes no sense at all.

    I remember last time after P3 high 2019 was hit and market turn down. Someone asked Tony at around 1940 if we are in P4 now. He’s said “probably or looks like” etc, something like that. At around 1901 pivot someone asked again Tony if this is now P4 and he said something like ” will be confirmed when 1901 pivot is broken”. Then it happened, prices went even lower and immediately he came up with targets of areas like 1680 and so on. He wrote: “yes it can go that low and even more”. Then market turned around and the mysterious B wave discussion started with a lot of statements from people that “this is typical for B waves to move that high on order to fool everybody” and such nonsense. Only a few people have been skeptical early on after market moved way above 1900 to 1940 and pointed to the possibility that 1820 was the absolute low. But no. The stubborn and ignorant people said big C wave is coming and who is not short is a fool and will be burned. And not the smallest assumption or hint from Tony that off the low of 1820 P4 could have ended. No, instead P4 is not less than 15-20% at minimum. And now here we are at 2018 and only now, after 200 points he is considering that P3 may exceed.

    That’s where I agree with people who argue in such a way counting makes no sense. This is not about making fun of someone. It’s a serious business and it can destroy life’s. New traders (newbies) looking up her for guidance can be mislead.

    If at every new pivot your were looking for short entry and got stopped out every time but still were hoping for the big C to start because Tony (“a nasty C wave should unfold “latest after B wave finished at 1973 pivot) and others strongly suggested it (rabbit and co. “believe me, I’m sure, you must be short, we will go down hard, I know it etc.) then you have been mislead. For old chaps around no problem. For newbies a disaster. And never any early warning that there maybe never a C wave coming. Again only very few considered low was in already when price was at 1950 and new all time highs are on the horizon.

    And I asked rabbittrader: “if 1962 was your turning point and 1970 did not matter to you what would you say at 2020 ?? Now he says he has also some long positions and bla bla. What’s getting on my nerves is when people are not objective and flexible and ready to admit they might be wrong. Instead still holding on and defending an opinion whereas the real situation had changed and gone already.

    So I have always criticized how people state something. This and that must happen definitely and throwing out numbers without sense at all, like from this date to that date prices will hit exactly that level and then afterward prices will go to that level and so on with full conviction. But when criticized about their view they say afterwards they have no crystal ball.

    The same now in the upside: some people say prices will go to 2200 and 2400 in that and that time. And if not ??

    My view is to look always for the next 30-40 points, especially if you are trading options and futures within a trend. There plenty of Opportunities long and short. No need to stick only to one direction. There will be big moves and counter rallies. Just being flexible and attentive. And to say something good to my favorite all time rival Lunker: his calculations for the short term are sometimes helpful. At least he is not insisting something must happen.

    • joecthetruthteller says:


      Another great post – you have stated exactly what went on in the blog here – thank you.

      Newbies must be warned that OEW will not make you any money

    • John Bell says:

      Excellent view from a swing short term trader. But what do you tell people who have to hold longer like in 401k’s and some IRA’s. The hardest time frame to pick is the longer term future and that is where 401k’s are for most people.

      Many people who teach trading classes will show how you can trade this and that day trade or swing trade and make money. But when I ask them the simple question if you had to hold a position for 30 days from now and cannot move it, what would you do? Since your friends may see you as a trading expert what would you tell them to do in their 401k’s? What position and what percent of money would you place if forced to hold a minimum of 30 days from now?

      At that point they dodge the question and move on because they say that nobody can guess the future. But that is where 401k is – long term future expectations. And that makes it important to try to establish a long term price expectations. Much money in the US is in the hold for 30 days at least 401k’s. So 401k people need to be looking way out in the future so they can re-balance once a quarter or slightly more often.

      Swing trading is fine for traders and that is a personal choice, but not for 401k’s. Most 401’s you cannot swing trade. Buy and hold.

      Others like me have a life style where I do not have time to watch all the time and swing trade so I like to have a majority of my money on intermediate or longer term holding positions and swing trade the rest. For example this year I have held large in muni bonds since early January and up 14-16% in those and not changed the positions. But have short term traded stock positions.

    • JeffMilano says:

      CM you have stated your case albeit even long. One does not have the time to do it in one gasp. None the kedd you have stated. Sign of growing. You have problem with this round where pivots have been stated and tops were being tried. DID NOT WORK. And now the s&p is above 2000. Newbies should not try picking tops and stay in in a loosing position; actually noone. Second for someone with experiance one would wait for a confirmation of a trend.
      So, in your post, I understand you aretrying to pick up this error, but we are learning and Tony has been right other times, why make a case of such incident. If you want to learn than stay on this blog. If no need to learn as you know it all and want pick such incident and make a case than no need to be on the blog. Thete are lots of things you can do. Like praing, being kind to our fellow human and doing volunteer work.
      When people quote Tony is for CLARIFICATION, not to put anyone on trial. THIS IS NOT A TRIBUNAL, it is a blog that TONY out of his heart and patients makes available for us to learn, clarify and help each other become better traders. Even this, hopefully you understand is pointing out that what you doing is a childish play and Tony is ptoving the doace and I the time to tell you as a brother.

  4. fotis2 says:

    95% of wannabe traders fail Why? It is an Unfortunate fact that 95% of the populace is hardwired from birth to blame others for their mistakes.In trading we blame the MM the Fed the Banks the goverment the war etc. and on this site when a trade goes wrong for certain individuals -Ah its all Tonys fault and OEW.The only truth is that the only thing you will ever have any control over is yourself so take full responsibility of your actions, use the stop loss to protect your position and not your opinion, stop pointing fingers and hey if OEW is not working for you why waste your valuable time here?Ther are many,many sites on the net that offer the super secret jubjub trading system that will turn 10k into 132k in 6monthts from the comfort of your lounge this months special for only $19.99 +free booklet on ‘How to become a hotshot trader in 10min’…IMVHO

    • joecthetruthteller says:


      IF you had read Cm’s post with your eyes WIDE open, he already stated ” everyone must take responsibility in his own hands.”

      So great trader Fortis, are we in the big C, or B, or xyz? Pray tell……

  5. John Bell says:

    If this is Primary V starting (see my post below for explanations – not confirmed yet), I would expect some major divergences in strength from the various world markets. US and stronger markets should see significantly higher highs as local and international money chase the strongest indexes and stocks, but some weaker markets may not achieve new highs. This would be typical for an ending Primary wave V.

    I can fault nobody for thinking more correction was due. Many EW and TA analysis people all over were saying that. And until today when Japan played its last power card unxpectedly (white swan card), you could not tell – more correction or not.

    • fishonhook says:

      any targets for PV?

      • John Bell says:

        From the world view P3 topped July 24. And P4 ended October 16. So three months.
        For P5 we could have a simple 1 main wave that ends in 3 months and goes to 2200. Or we could have subdivision and end much later and 2400 area.
        For the intermediate term we are probably looking at a high early 2015 for the first wave or final wave of P5. So trading would be to get long on the next dip which might be after the US election since things are so extended new term and then hold to at least early January. Then see what happens.

        If you are a short term swing type trader, then the trades would be on the long side and wait for safe dips to enter. Probably will not dip much until after the US election. And there may be a exhaustion pop on the election results posting and then a pause and small correction.

  6. John Bell says:

    —title – world is starting Primary V wave now.
    From viewing various world markets, if they also pick up now, then I think Primary IV is done and we are starting Primary V. Much of the world markets and even small caps US did a full 3 month larger time and price correction lasting 3 months and going down 15-25%.

    The US large caps diverged from much of the world and only went down much in the C wave that many markets in the world experienced. So only the US large caps did not get a real full correction with the Wave A. So In US case the Major A was small and then the Major B went to new highs and then finally US gave up and did a real wave down for Major wave C.

    We had a near zweig breadth thrust to start this off and that usually happens on the start of a larger wave. Also the monthly and weekly charts continue to look like a Primary wave V.

    Have a nice weekend. My thoughts shared as a first time poster here, but have been trading and posting on other blogs for well over a decade.

    • jimnero says:

      yes it feels like pv

    • joecthetruthteller says:

      Thank you John for an interesting post – I now think we are in Primary 5 too – after being misled.

      • John Bell says:

        I have long said that the bull market will end when the world central banks play their last bullets. Or faith is CB’s ultimate power deteriorates and they are found to have not really created real organic growth. Today BOJ played their last bullet. ECB will play their last bullet next year. US FED is out of bullets for now. and others are pretty well done, but may have small bullets left to play. Within the next year the bullets will have been played and yet no real recovery has come and disenchantment with CB’s will increase.

        Then after group think for central bankers has driven every body down the same rabbit hole, We are all going to struggle together after the last bullets are played during the “recovery” from the last great recession.

        I posted tonight because I was getting the feeling around many places that people were getting beat up and wanted to add my thoughts which hopefully shed another view that may clear things up. Nothing is fact of course, but my conclusions above seem to explain the many divergences and that they probably will clear up some now as Cb’s play their last bullets.

      • John Bell says:

        The US large caps did not experience a full Primary IV because of (1) massive stock buybacks and (2) foreign money flowing into us large cap indexes from around the world as international money was chasing the only strong indexes in the world.

  7. JeffMilano says:

    cmucha68 – your comment is out of logic and place.
    You cannot tell to make the blog a pay blog.
    There are no garantees in investments and in life. We are not talking about minors.
    Lot’s of people have learned from Tony, including me.
    Comments should be instructive. Yours are not. Do do not waste your time.
    Tony does for free. This gives wider range to people that want to learn. Nothing wring with that. Why your destructive comment.

    Again i will say – perhaps you may not like it: THANK YOU TONY.

    Best – jeff

    • jimnero says:

      yes this is the best of the best thank you Tony

    • joecthetruthteller says:

      There are other posters who think differently from you. Cm’s posts were not “destructive” as you claim. It clearly showed that he could think straight and was objective in his analysis.

  8. Alan Yeung says:

    I guess I missed out 20% gain because you got me wrong last year and again this year. Elliott wave is more like a storytelling (after the fact) mechanism.

  9. lunker1 says:

    this isn’t a chat board. post your market view and read the other.

    • joecthetruthteller says:


      There you go again! WHO on earth appointed you to be the Sheriff on this blog? Allan Y is entitled to his views.

  10. Thanks Tony, look forward to your weekend update as usual!

    Everybody keep posting, all input is of value. This has definitely become one of the best reads on the web.

  11. Walter Crane says:

    Dated Miss Universe for quite some time, and the following year, dated the first runnerup. Made my first million at 23 and never stopped. I am telling you the top is in next week, don’t want to say the exact day, but these will be prophetic words.

  12. 7dayyss says:

    Just did a quick stroll through the comments without reading, see Tony still didn’t make any comments. The ingrates must of really got his goat this time. Thank God he’s thick skinned, afraid he was finally going to shut the blog down this time!!! Tony, this to shall pass, huh?!

    • joecthetruthteller says:


      Please don’t get your knickers into a twist now, We already knew the REASON behind the zillions of thank you’s a day. “Afraid of Tony shutting the blog ” Not to worry, he won’t. He needs the blog just as much as you do because he needs valuable feedback too. BTW you thanked God but forgot to thank Tony – big mistake – as a result of your emotions running wild.

    • joecthetruthteller says:

      7dayyss & 5 Stars,

      Spoken like true blue, hardcore CULT members. LOL Both of you forgot to say thank you not only to me for making you sit up but Tony as well. Tsk tsk.

      Calm down dorky & Starry Eyed, Tony is not going to shut the blog down. Take a sleeping pill and off you go to bed now. Tomorrow will be a brand new day for you.

  13. ariez5 says:

    Hi Tony,
    In your weekend update, it sounds like you will outline a “PIII extending” scenario. Please also elaborate on why we could not be in PV. You have written something like “that last wave did not reset enough of our measurements.” Please elaborate if you can. Thanks.

  14. Joel Wenger says:

    Personal opinions of George Soros aside, he does have a good point in times like these: “It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.”

  15. fishonhook says:

    You have a good weekend too Tony.

    tough week, most of us lost a few bucks, but if we wake up on Monday we are all winners.

    Seems like the CB are doing tag-QE.” I quit, so you start,” and their main measure of success seems to be the stock indexes. Why else would the japanese put their people’s pension funds into the stock market and not invest it new enterprises or loans to small businesses.

    Anyway we have to trade what is and not what we want. I still give 3X-ETF traders P5 some credence. he has stuck to this count from 100 S and P points ago.

    Have a good week-end everyone

  16. rabbittrader1 says:

    tradesmart321 Harsh, harsh, Yes I anticipated a drop after the 1973 pivot (like Tony) But if you read one of my posts I stated that I have 40% positions in BULL investments at most all times. These are in, ,: Alternative energy ,communications, computer technology and electricity related , investments (think electricity ( battery )storage ,etc. These investments were up substantially the past few weeks . True I could have made more by not being short the SPX lately, but these investments are still in my portfolio (the longs and the shorts) and I am certain (like others)that we will see a correction on the downside fairly soon. I have some PAPER losses ONLY.. ! know the MARKET is the final arbiter , not me. I am certainly not perfect. By the way I am 79 years old Not 87. Good luck in your trading I am still up about 7o% ,. YEAR TO DATE ,having lost 15% (on paper) the past couple weeks How much are you up YEAR TO DATE?

  17. jobjas says:

    Thank you Tony for your patience and diligence.

  18. Gary Lewis says:

    I must be the only holdout left. Thought that they would push the market up to new highs at the close and added more January puts. While everyone is hyping price, and I can’t argue that the price is rising in a dramatic fashion; this all is nothing short of insanity. The market is pumped up on nothing more than ZIRP. Central banks are nothing short of desperate. They are all bankrupt. Even our banks, with all of their special offshore entities, which are conveniently left off the books, leave them all insolvent. Ben Bernanke said that himself and I reported it in one of my blogs years ago. He said that if the banks were required to show these entities on their books, they would all be insolvent. So yes, you can follow price and make some profits, but the big money is going to be made on the downside. I’m rational, patient and SOLVENT and can continue buying puts for as long as it takes. I’m confident that in the end, I will prevail.

    Call me all the bad names that you want but I’m not going to change my convictions. I’d rather be wrong for a spell and eventually be right that be right for some little moves and not prepared when the big moves come.

    • djd1968 says:

      Gary – I tend to agree, I still view this as counter-trend moving 200 S&P points in 2 weeks. Bear rallies are vicious. Still could move higher but now see the “hanging man” black candle on the daily chart which could indicate a turn is near. When it turns there may be a mad rush for the exits……

    • Gary, I’m still a Bear and I’m still holding short. I have taken a beating but I’m still very solvent and ultimately I know how this all plays out the timing is the hard part BUT id rather chase a 200- 2018 down points than 50-300 up that’s for damn sure. Best of Luck! All you Tony Bashers go run through a cornfield backwards.

    • klopharmd says:

      No Gary it’s just me and you. And probably were holding because the OTM calls got hit hard and aren’t worth selling. So yeah I’ll stick to my guns vs selling for 20% back! Damn you gap uppppppppp!!!!!

      • afarsid says:

        I’m holding Nov Dec and Jan Puts and I can wait as long as this roller coaster needs to. I’ve learned to use stops but In this case chose not to. I’ll adjust that stance once I see any pullback. Some call it reckless – I call it patience. Plenty of gloomy China data coming out, the writing is on the wall- upside from here is limited.

    • buddyglove says:

      Jeez Bears….take your head out the mixer.

    • jimnero says:

      I’m still short too

  19. There is only 1 way to make $$$ in the market: Buy the breakout of a 1-2-3 set up

  20. Too bad Rabbit wasted 87 or so years of life observing the market and still didn’t get it. Follow the market rather than argue with it. Too old now to get it.

  21. Walter Crane says:

    I can tell you all that the top is in next week. But to make sure it happens, will only say its next week. Think elections. The mood around here is quite bad now, too many went all in it seems, never go all in, except for your kids. Rabbit and Tony will be right. Soon. TVIX for all…..

  22. Tony, please do not forget to mention these massive fumbles along the way when you make an eventual post down the road about how OEW has nailed every major turn. I am sure sooner and later every wave count will fit correctly on the charts and you will proclaim victory. Hope you keep it objective.

  23. klopharmd says:

    Any thoughts on the VIX holding 14? Last time here it was 9. Or lower. Guess that’s what gives the market its fuel.

  24. bl0gger07 says:

    Tony, interesting you changed sides. Im not EW expert and guess you are going with your process.

    I would point here is we finally have the catalyst for crash (or the C wave you were expecting). Watch JPY or FXY. Crash impending.

    would be interested in seeing your weekend update to see if you have ANY bearish setup at this juncture.

  25. Sumesh Kumar says:

    Thank you Tony for your tireless and helpful work. It is a must read for me that broadens my knowledge of SPX. I have used it in my trading for profit many times.

  26. max torbreck says:

    Hi Tony,

    Some others have us in P5, with P4 bottom at 1820 not so long ago.

    What are your thoughts on that?


  27. cmucha68 says:

    Marketupsandowns: my intuition told me that you are hanging around here buddy. Before I go into weekend and stay absent from this blog forever (many will be delighted) I would like to add something final to your post: if today spx high had been exceeded by 1 point only, then P3 had come into play and simply extended (could happen Monday or not). If that happens and the market turns back down afterwards and goes all the way back south and breaks 1901 then P4 becomes active again (after 120 points and not to forget all the majors, minutes, micros and picos etc. in between). Lets assume the market goes then to 1880 and turns up gain and goes all the way back and makes again a new high by a few points, then P4 would have been valid all the way back for 120+ points, only to be canceled again and to make P3 becoming effective once more. I mean what kind of counting is that ?? But by adjusting and labelling everything at your good will and calling it objective is a farce.

    If I was Tony I would close the free door to the public and accept only monthly paying religious apostle members for my daily generous effort. Why is someone sitting day in day out at his desk and writing about the market, for helping others ? For sure not. Getting attention and prospective new customers for the paying tutorial/seminar. Like I said before: that’s absolutely ok. A man must have an income. Why not.

    And before again people say here I’m telling this because I’m frustrated and such nonsense. Not true. I am just questioning things that make no sense. And as far as I have recognised, due to misunderstanding or not, people have lost money (luckily not me in this case) because of certain assumptions from Tony and others like the always truth possessing rabbittrader and a few others that the big C wave is imminent. Like you said marketupsandowns, for newbies not familiar with these OEW stuff it becomes dangerous. Even if you use stops, a loss is always a loss.

    And finally, what’s the big deal in his work? Chose a charting program that displays pivot points and Fibonacci levels and tell the people: look there is resistance and support. If markeqt goes above or below, this and that is confirmed, and if not and the market goes further, you just say the price maybe is extending to the next pivot or Fibonacci level. And if price stops there and reverses you are the generous king and guru because you mentioned the possibility that price may pullback or whatever. Like all the others on the web (one is called Tony Cherniawski or so, worst calls ever with EW and charges a monthly newsletter fee) that is all wishy-washy for me. Selling selling selling and no substance behind. But the addicted old followers will see it differently and defend the master. How many times I have read today the words “thank you Tony” 20 times plus ? Like the former guest said it correctly to Tony: “you have been subjectively guessing market directions although you think it is objective”. I couldn’t have said it better. Now good weekend !

    • Hey CM, I am mostly a day trader (like most people here try to be). OEW is supposedly for longer term traders, so why give daily updates I ask? To be giving daily updates s you need to look down to minute/tick charts, daily’s are useless. Therefore how can you have time to blog?? This is why so many calls are disjointed and confusing, who can possibly put themselves into 50 other heads and decipher what the market is doing. That is why a genuine trader works in isolation and owns their own system. You obviously know that. I feel sorry for those who actually believe EW will help them to financial security cause it won’t, let alone give you enough money to buy a cup of coffee. It is subjective no matter what spin you put on it, and the bigger players use it to their advantage.

      The reason the thankyou’s come thick and fast is because most here believe by being grateful the “Laws of the Universe” will provide all their needs “out of thin air”. Baloney cause the market has participants and for one to win another must lose, so the loser is obviously the guy that doesn’t say thankyou according to the “Universal Law”.

      I laughed last week when I said that those waiting for the big c wave to make them rich at the expense of the richer.

      Keep on making money CM and enjoy your life cause I am with you all the way, just chipping away cause it’s fun.

      PS where is that pesky wabbit. I like the analogy, he has disappeared down his hole to kooky Alice in Wonderland

      • Exactly what I told Tony long time back. These daily updates are useless at best and dangerous at worst. Tony says he is not a day trader and yet likes to update on day to day movement. As for rabbit, he is jamming with Elvis somewhere in the outer space.

      • cmucha68 says:

        marketupsandowns, not that you think I do not read your post before going to bed. I appreciate your comments. Rabbit is perhaps in his padded cell in the psychatry after he told us we all should seek a psychatrist if we do not get short after FED meeting due to big crash imminent. I think they doctor has baned him from using the internet in order not to spread his wild fantasies with Elvis, Onassis and whomever. Tradesmart and Vivelaaamo welcome to the outsiders club here for telling some truth. We are a minority and the Apostels will hate us. But who cares. We make money and others debate about waves and counts. Good night my friends !

      • chrisk44342 says:

        Wait a minute- I thought you said ‘for good’, and yet here you are again!

    • vivelaamo says:

      I agree the updates and OEW are both useless and dangerous but I’ve come across some good posters on here. Hope some of you guys have your own blogs or twitter feeds because still nice to hear thoughts of successful traders who aren’t looking to make money from sharing their wisdom and experience.

    • joecthetruthteller says:


      Please stay on as I ‘m sure Tony values your feedback. And so do some other posters judging from yesterday’s postings. And yes you are correct is saying for newbies OEW is dangerous. The only people who don’t value any feedback whatsoever are those who got themselves into a “cultish” mentality and unable to get out of it as hard core disciples.
      And to those I say if you don’t like any feedback, simply skip the posts – nobody is FORCING you to read every singe post here – not even Tony! It’s really that simple. . .

  28. xscaler92646 says:

    Thought this might be interesting. Not every EW guy was looking at that last decline as just an A wave.

    • xscaler92646 says:

      Yes, that was from my 10/16 email.

    • I am only a beginner but P5 is what seems most viable to me also.

      • vivelaamo says:

        EW is the fastest way to lose a lot of money. Decide how you want to trade, find a system and stick to your rules and you will make money. Sticking to EW regardless of whether a it’s objective makes a person too biased in the favor of the major or even primary moves expected. This can get a trader emotional which is when it all goes downhill. I lost nearly everything from learning Elliot wave but totally neglecting simple money management. I learnt the hard way, don’t make the same mistake. Forget EW and learn money management and simple TA like sup, res, trendlines, patterns. You will last a lot longer.

    • And that is exactly the big problem with EE (and I guess OEW).
      The moment that your overall count (in the greater scale) is correct, you can make fantastic predictions. there is a german paid EW service with some outstanding results, because the guy -let me put it that way- happens to be on the right overall path. (I think he had the last low as IV as well.

      That is why in my comment some hrs ago I asked if it is valid to keep the “waiting for P4” count valid for 13 month and get “told twice by the market” that the main count needs adjustment. Because objetctive we trade what we see and we see that 2 times the P4 count has failed big time (not in the way of trading it or not) but in the clearity of showing as as a misscount. (no intention to make it sound like Tony cannot count!!):
      Seing last years P4 failiure and maintaining the same overall count for 12 month “extention of P3, further extention of P3, now P4 highly possible, ah damn, further extention of P3” is for me on the verge of being objective vs subjectivly holding on to a count that I want to see.
      And being an objective art of review of the movement of the markets this discussion has a t least to be addressed in my opinion.
      But in a technical matter, not based on emotions and hurt accounts.

    • joecthetruthteller says:

      jimzero says “Gimme a brake there feeback is nausea”

      Listen up, you’re obviously infected with a Virus — don’t be a brain- dead Sheep and learn to accept the fact that comments in general contribute to the whole. FYI Tony was short this market too.

  29. fionamargaret says:

    …some pics…

    Thanks Tony.

  30. Nader Arafa says:

    Tony, I was glad to read what you provided today in your update.

    I have a couple of observations/comments as well as some questions.

    I believe that central banks are getting more irresponsible here with what they are doing when it comes to QEs. This doesn’t really look like an orderly market to me and I am pretty sure that the end of this is going to be really really ugly and destructive.

    When wave 3 extends several times, it’s truly unusual. Extensions are somehow common to 7s instead of 5s, rare to 9s. what’s the number of waves of P3 now?

    This returns me to the most important question, the long term count. Alternative long terms counts suggests that 2009 to date rally is actually a SC5. SC1 is bull market which kicked in after WWII, 50s and 60s, followed by SC2, early 70s bear market, followed by SC3 which lasted around 25 years and topped in 2000, this was then followed by SC4 (2000 to 2009) and now SC5. This count applies to SPX and will face some challenges for the Dow, however, supporters of this count are claiming that Dow is a poor representation of the market and that SPX is a much better representative.

    What’s your intake on this?



    • joecthetruthteller says:

      Anyone who thought that QE had ended needs to RE think. Recent developments in Japan show that the Central Bankers have taken FULL control over the markets….

  31. johnjo12 says:

    So many comments
    today. Interesting to know if there is a correlation with volume of comments vs market turning points !

  32. travis01 says:

    Good freakin grief! Can we not come out of the woods with hundreds of posts stating the obvious? People missed wave counts and asked questions. That’s expected. I read very little condescending ones. I personally question waves these days and have studied several long years, but never question the writer. Did you not question your professors? I certainly hope so. If I’m wrong I just wanna figure it out and do better next time. This is why I never post. “Use stops, make your own trades, develop your own system..”. Everyone likely does that already. I bet TC would just as soon like for you to question calls and show your thoughts as to why as to send 200 “thank you don’t forget my name” posts a day. It’s exhausting trying to read through the fluff to obtain useful info from the experienced posters left here. Like Sweet Georgia Brown says, “Ain’t nobody got time for that!” Peace out.

    • FiveStars says:

      go some place else and find yourself a blog with ‘no thank you’

    • fionamargaret says:

      …I think that is why we are regarded as ‘cultish’…don’t be afraid to question.
      It is Tony’s blog, and we come here to get his interpretation of the waves, plus the insights of a very decent group of thinkers. I am sure Tony wants feedback, not just adulation.

    • joecthetruthteller says:

      “show your thoughts as to why as to send 200 “thank you don’t forget my name” posts a day”

      ROTLMAO! Good one!

  33. Correctly called the uptrend on Oct 18, but did not expect this retracement

    Tomorrow I will report on the monthly analysis in order to determine what is next and compare to 2007-08


  34. Tony: Kudos on your unflinching willingness to admit mistakes and to admit that you incurred a trading loss. This is the kind of integrity that is so lacking in the financial world, not to mention the larger world. Your express intention of clarifying to readers how to use the analysis presented on this site without demanding infallibility of you is a great example of your sincere desire to be helpful to your readers rather than to rationalize and defend your position. Your humility and straightforwardness is an excellent role model for all of us who read your comments.

  35. pimacanyon says:

    Tony, you are incredibly generous. Many thanks!!

    Here’s wishing you a fantastic weekend!

  36. johnjo12 says:

    This could still be B wave as an expanded flat which can advance past of wave A. Appears 99% of traders were caught out on move. Prob one of the biggest short squeezes in a long time.

    • pimacanyon says:

      I don’t see how it can be a B wave. It’s an impulsive advance, no overlap, no ABC structure, just one incredibly impulsive rocket to the upside. B waves are corrective waves, with at least some overlap if they’re a simple abc. The move up from the 1820 is not a corrective wave IMO.

      However…. if this move up turns out to be the final subwave up of P3, then this possibility presents itself: What if that subwave completed today (or completes very soon, like next week) and the market heads south in P4. That would mess with everybody, eh? But if probabilities suggest that the advance out of the 1820 low is an extension of P3, then we have to be on the lookout for P3 –finally– ending, right?

  37. IAWT says:

    1560 or so was the big breakout level in SP. If we back into that as anticipated secular bull support, I can attempt to get an idea where this bull might end. Then say I assume the next bear market will decline 40%, that produces an upside level of about 2600 in the S&P. For this reason I think there are still 2 lengthy uptrends left of 15-18% each. It appears the market is currently in the 1st of the remaining 2 moves higher. Whether we just had a major 4 low or Int 4 low idk, but I think it was one or the other. I expect that the move in last 2 weeks was a wave 1 of 5 and the 5th will end around 2300 probably into February 2015. What would make sense next is a typical fib retrace of 50-60% of 1820-20xx into Turkey day.

  38. 30mtradermom says:

    The FREE market content provided for FREE within this FREE blog allows me FREE choice to read or not to read. I choose to read it as the content provides a FREE guideline for me to use in conjunction with my own work (which I rarely share because some people are FREE-ly mean in their commentaries). You are FREE to accept or reject his and other postings. Be accountable to yourself and your decision making… that truth will set you FREE.

  39. mharrison60 says:

    What are folks views on what the extension point is from e.g. Int V or earlier.

    If Int V could we be at the end after this rapid push up the last 2 weeks? Thanks

  40. soulsurfer says:

    thanks tony, and for all you do!

    WLEI lower again…. tick tock, tick tock goes the clock…

    • airran23 says:

      Can you expand on this WLEI being lower again and consequences of it? Thanks.

    • joecthetruthteller says:


      FYI overnight futures went past resistance! tick tock, tick tock

      • soulsurfer says:

        Joe, what have futures to do with WLEI? I do not understand your reply. Please explain.

        Also, I find your recent replies to my posts rather of a negative, belittling and condescending tone. Maybe you don’t intend it, but it is not about what you say, it is about how you say it and how it is perceived. Please be cognizant of that going forward. Thanks!

  41. Tony,

    I don’t want to simply comfort or even praise you at this moment. Of course, you also don’t need to blame yourself. This is business.

    However, I think you should seriously consider if your approach is objective. (I reminded you about it in this month.) That is, it is important to improve trading approach.

    Frankly, your approach is not effective for market prediction, but good summary for past market (certainly, it is also great job). Essentially, you have been subjectively guessing market directions although you think it is objective EW. So, it is not surprising for you to frequently change your wave counting even on Primary level after market runs far away.

    I belive you have much experience on stock tradng and also expect your success in market investigation. But your OEW is not yet effective at least currently. If it is, you will be very busy to make mony from the OEW now, but not have time and interest to train otheres one by one for $1K/person. That is why I have cautiously treated your judgement of market directions. All of people here should not simply believe Tony’s comment of market. Tony shares his idea to us. It is not his fault. He is great.

    Have a great Halloween and weekend!

  42. mharrison60 says:

    Thanks Tony for selfless efforts!

  43. Caldaro great work Caldaro you get them next time. Hang in there

    • jjjzzzwww says:

      my opinion:
      institutional money got the wink that Japan was going to ease in and around the time Bullard made his comments on 10/15

      • fionamargaret says:

        ….I did mention to Tony that our markets were geared for more QE, (and European institutions were talking of nothing else the previous week), Tony said ”No QE”.
        Maybe more of an open mind……..

      • mrgreen2010 says:

        Thought it would be the EU first as Germany balked figured it would take more time and it takes Japan with some horrid data that goes all in. Good post as a reminder fiona not to be blinded by our own analyses and hubris.

      • joecthetruthteller says:


        Global Money Tsunami remains in play, with only the sources and destination of that money changing. Or stated another way, while the Federal Reserve is now supposedly exiting QE entirely, the BOJ and the European Central Bank (ECB) are picking up the torch.

        That’s spiking the USD further, hitting the euro in addition to the yen, and otherwise distorting all capital markets even further…..

  44. merovix says:

    Thank You very much Mr. Caldaro for keeping your patience and stance, and sharing.
    Grazie mille 🙂

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