thursday update

SHORT TERM: another gap up and go, DOW +217

Overnight the Asian markets finished mixed. Europe opened lower but gained 0.9%. US index futures were much higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 283k v 264k, at 9am the FHFA was reported higher: +0.5% v +0.1%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1943 and continued to rally. The SPX had closed at 1927 yesterday. After hitting yesterday’s SPX 1949 high in the opening minutes the market pulled back to 1944 by 10am. At 10am Leading indicators were reported higher: +0.8% v +0.2%. After that the market rallied to SPX 1958 just before 11am, pulled back to 1952 by 1pm, then rallied to 1962 by 2:30. After that the market started to pullback. Just after 3pm the SPX hit 1949, bounced to 1955 by 3:30, hit 1948 just before a 1951 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.60%. Bonds lost 13 ticks, Crude rallied $1.45, Gold dropped $8, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Tomorrow: New home sales at 10am.

Another gap up and go open today. With the market holding the OEW 1929 pivot during yesterday’s pullback. It stormed ahead overnight, rallying right back to the 1956 pivot range again while setting up the negative divergence we mentioned yesterday. If the market is about to enter Int. wave B, it should be underway now. If not, and we are currently observing all of Major wave B. The market could rally to the targeted OEW 1973 pivot range next. This market has certainly been wild, as the DOW has been moving triple digits nearly every day for a couple of weeks. Best to your Friday trading!

MEDIUM TERM: Major B uptrend probably underway

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

This entry was posted in Updates and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

401 Responses to thursday update

  1. If someone had asked me this morning if we’d be more likely to be +400 Dow points or +400 blog comments, I’d have picked +400 Dow. Mea Culpa.

  2. fishonhook says:

    Well it will be interesting to see what Tony says for the week-end up-date on his B of B, and what Rabbit says about his crash scenario. this is more than messing round.
    Watch us go out at HOD!

    • blackjak100 says:

      If you read his update yesterday, you should know what he’ll say

      • fishonhook says:

        That is a rather smug comment blackjak. Tony was calling for the end of the Bull market within a few months late 2013 and then changed his count when the market kept going up. Sooo… he may change his count/ opinion again dontcha think?

    • A CRASH is on deck, they are trying to squeeze all shorts out.. it is very simple.

      • vivelaamo says:

        Been hearing this crash talk for years now where the market keeps going up. Let me guess. This time it’s different right?

      • Gary Lewis says:

        Who are the “THEY”? I think that it’s all mindless computers now. Don’t think that there are any Specialist conspiracies like there might have been 30-40 years ago when real people ran the trading on the floor. Seeing how there is unlimited credit and virtually no volume, I don’t think squeezing the shorts out is an issue. The game has changed, don’t you think?

      • “They ” are the elite who run the financial system. “They” are the Banks, the Federal Reserve, the Rothschilds.. Yes computers run the trades but they are progammed by man and those men who program the Bots are told what to program by those with the MONEY! Way more money to be made in a CRASH than any other way. Someone could make more in one day if positioned right than they could in years.

      • Gary Lewis says: Have you been catching the Ken Griffen divorce? He makes $900 million a year running Citadel. See how it works.

    • FiveStars says:

      SPX will zip thru 50dma and close above today, setting up for huge move up Monday.

      • vivelanno, it is different because no more qe money & bulls are conditioned to buy the dip, and there is ebola murking around, and we have been in an exhausted bull market for way too long, other ecomonic powerhouses are falling apart, but more importantly the reason why is because big money planned this long ago.

      • vivelaamo says:

        I agree. Then we can all forget about this silly P4 talk and call it P3 or P5 or whatever other nonsense you want to call it.

        No disrespect to you Tony, really grateful for the analysis you share.

        I just think there is becoming more and more proof there is no place for EWT in these crazy times.

      • 7dayyss says:

        vivelanno: If you’ve been following Tony’s commentary, he’s been pretty spot on! Not to say he’s infallible, but who is?!

    • cmucha68 says:

      Rabbittrader said it earlier: the market may challenge the high of yesterday and even exceeds it a little bit. SPX closed a bit outside the 1956 pivot and there is still enough room for the Bears to step in quickly. No panic.

      • vivelaamo says:

        Any hope of a downward move will be short lived my friend. Don’t get sucked in. All time highs are around the corner. It is NEVER difference this time. Mark my words.

  3. Hopefully coming Monday to a theater near you, General Lee with Grizzly Bear

  4. Gary Lewis says:

    Checking in to see the close. Just as I suspected, another boring day of drifting higher. OK, I just put on some call spreads to recoup put costs should we continue to go higher. Can’t imagine that the market will go down on Monday. It always goes up on Monday if Friday is an up day, in an uptrend. Might as well just go with it.

    • joecthetruthteller says:

      Gary, true that Market goes up if Friday is an up day – but don’t give up. It’s coming. Merriman who has been right all along ( according to Pooch ) is/was looking for 1960 -70 to short into November – because of Mercury being in retrograde.

  5. DOW, SPX, COMPQ, NDX and just now TRAN have all made new highs for the move today. The market can go down now.

  6. lunker1 says:

    Anyone who posts more than 10 times a day gets the pink pom-poms award for cheerleading.

  7. llerias7 says:

    Market should close well inside the OEW1956…might be the top of (a) of B or the top for B itself…either way is probably a top!…

  8. vivelaamo says:

    We all know there is going to be a massive gap up sunday and new highs in the next few weeks. Just look at the whole of the past 7 years of how this guys. Once we get new all times highs then considering another pull back. There will be no crash. The markets will just continue to rise. THERE IS NO P4 or P5. Elliot wave theory does not apply anymore.

  9. All set up for the bank test fireworks on Sunday night….

  10. pooch77 says:

    Watchout for the breakout of the 56 pivot into close.Bet Scotty saved a lot of people a ton of money by posting his biggest crash call ever A.Hs ::))

  11. cmucha68 says:

    So last hour profit taking again ?

    • Libor Val says:

      rather ramping up

    • Libor Val says:

      yesterday I was wrong about moving over 1956 pivot but today we will make it

    • fishonhook says:

      This slow bleed up is sure painful for traders…who are short like us. There is some divergence on that leading stocks are not at the HOD with the market and the squiggles are getting smaller and closer together. However on the bull side, I don’t see divergence on the daily yet.
      It would just be like the market to drift up and cause the most pain for shorts.
      I would also say the bulls are brave to go out long when another Ebola case in NEw York could wreck havoc with futures come Monday morning. Crap shoot.

    • cmucha68 says:

      Ladies and Gentlemen, last hour starting. Place your bets please !

      • afarsid says:

        I wouldn’t call it brave, smart money is probably driving it up while they “can” just to turn around and pull the rug out, leaving the rest of us bag holders… no thanks
        EW aside – all this volatile movement is calculated, let’s not forget that. “They” want you to think that everything is good again. I don’t buy it, but that’s just me

  12. gary61b says:

    spx 60min is starting to take a triangle shape from the 1930 level. common place for triangles to occur in a position prior to the final wave in the pattern of one larger degree such as a B of an ABC.

    • Almost any price pattern that occurs will take the shape of a triangle–except in the rare case when the trendlines connecting the tops and lows are parallel. Why do so many people think there is something exceptional about a triangle pattrern?

    • gary61b says:

      If this is a triangle or if u will a rising wedge, with inclusive 3-3-3-3-3 waves we could be in the wave c, possible next week heading south.

  13. bhtrade says:

    Confident rally sellers aplenty. Haven’t read once today from someone willing to buy it here. hmm . . .

  14. afarsid says:

    Quite possible we see some sort of double top, then 3pm sell off… That was the trend that we saw throughout most of Major A the other week. Crazy how it replicated time and time again. I guess we forgot our lessons from just the other week… irrational exuberance can do that

Comments are closed.