SHORT TERM: rally continues, DOW +19
Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.8%, mostly Japan. Europe opened lower and lost 1.0%. US index futures were higher, and then lower, overnight. The market opened one point below Friday’s SPX 1887 close, dipped to 1882 in the opening minutes, and then started to rise. The rally was a bit choppy as there were several five point swings along the way. But nothing like the volatility we have seen in the past week or so. At noon FED governor Tarullo’s speech was released in a closed door meeting at the NY FED: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/tarullo20141020a.htm. Worth the read. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1905, then dipped to close at 1904.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.50, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.40%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude dipped 5 cents, Gold rose $8, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises to the 1901 and 1869 pivots, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Tomorrow: Existing home sales at 10am.
The market opened lower today, dipped to SPX 1882, and then rallied for the rest of the day. We did get a lower opening, but it did not dip below SPX 1878 as expected. As a result we updated the hourly SPX chart to display a Minor ‘a’ at 1898 and Minor ‘b’ at 1878. Minor wave c, to complete Int. wave A, should currently be underway. If Minor c = a, Int. A should end at the 1956 pivot. If c = 0.618 a, then Int. A should end at the 1929 pivot. Short term support is at the 1901 pivot and SPX 1878, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Short term momentum may be setting up a negative divergence, but no signs of weakness yet. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: Major A downtrend may have bottomed
LONG TERM: bull market
the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on 
I expect a top of 1942or so for wave B this week, then after a retrace early next week ,and re-test of the high we start C wave down to 1629 -bottom ( of C ), (and completion of primary IV) on Nov.26th,then 1802 or 1820ish is next high on May 3 2015 ,then failure ,and decline to a low of 666 SPX in early 2017.IMVH(calculated) Opinion. We must synchronize with be-lated Kondratieff wave ,.27 to33 years overdue-( Due to Fed interference in the financial markets ).since late 1979 Heard George Kahumoku Jr.,Hawaiian slack guitar player from Maui, HI yesterday at the Deep River Congregational church . It was absolutely beautiful music , and song.,.authentic Hawaiian Music His daughter danced to some of the songs in the church (brought tears to my eyes).
LikeLike
Early 2017 SPX 666? Sounds good to me. Can we reset SPX to 0 and start SPX from scratch?
LikeLike
so you are saying that the C wave is going to be a 400 point move? If that’s the case, I’ll just sit on the sidelines and wait for 2000 and go short then. When do you expect a test of the highs? One week? Two weeks? Thanks
LikeLike
TY Tony http://lunker1.wordpress.com/2014/10/20/eod-monday/
LikeLike
my roadmap:
minute a of minor a ended at 1905 today
minute b pullback to 1890-1895
minute c=1.62*a(27 pts.) to the 1929 pivot to end minor a.
LikeLike
Bulls performing:
$SPX $DJIA $RUT $FTSE $GOLD $NATGAS
http://www.tradingchannels.co.uk/2014/10/bulls-performing.html?spref=tw
LikeLike
Thanks Bouraq.
Looks like Gold is aiming for 1280+. Where do you see natgas to settle? usually it bottoms in Nov.
LikeLike
I don’t believe in seasonalities very much. It’s too easy. 🙂 I reckon the next strong major bull wave won’t start before it hits $3.15
LikeLike
Tony if Minor C of Intermediate A of Major B is the 1929 pivot what would be the time frame for that you think? Also, what would be the target for Minor C of Intermediate B if A is 1929?
LikeLike
Int. A should be this week
Need a downward Int. B after that first
LikeLike
Solar eclipse and new moon on Thursday, would make sense to rally up into Thursday to complete int a
LikeLike
Thanks Tony,
SPX coming up to a retest of the 200DMA, doubt it will get through the first time round.. thinking that puts an end to (a) of B of P4 and we head back down to test the 1850/60 pivot. Martin Armstrong is talking up SPX 3000 within 2 years – do you think that could happen? It would be some wave 5 😉
All the best.
LikeLike
anything can happen, but we need to finish this correction first
LikeLike
Wonder what would be the minimum the C waves?
Would 20 points be enough? 30 ? or is C always the big kahuna?
Daneric’s wave count showed the 4 ending on Friday. Be interesting to see how he labels it after today’s surge.
He is in the apocolyptic camp
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.ca/2014/10/elliott-wave-update-17-october-2014.html
LikeLike
dan is a great “micro” counter, sadly he always wants to count 5 down and 3 up. with this clouded judgement one can not successfully navigate nor understand the markets.
LikeLike
$SPX coming up from below against 2 vital resistance points: it’s 200-day SMA and the 1905 low of Aug 7. For those few on this site who may not know this: Once a low point which has been downside support is broken, it becomes resistance when the price of the item moves back up towards it from below. So it the $SPX can rise above these former low points, it will have made an excellent technical accomplishment. The 200 day SMA was not a previous low point per se, but it did provide technical support for the $SPX for a long time period. So the principle described above works the same way for it as for the 1905 former low.
Additionally, Richard Russell’s PTI stopped going down right at it’s 89 day MA on the day when Major Wave A of Primary Wave 4 probably made it’s low. Russell’s Dow Theory Letters has used the 89 day MA as the dividing line between bull and bear markets for decades, and it seldom if ever has given a wrong signal. It seems to be an exception to the principle of indicators losing their validity after too much exposure.
Link to $SPX chart on Stockcharts.com: http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=%24SPX
LikeLike
Spelling Correction: “it” in this phrase should read “if”: So it the $SPX can rise above these former low points,
LikeLike
Guru Grades: http://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/
LikeLike
which begs the question. Should someone keep getting a pass just because they’ve been around a long time?
LikeLike
No, unless their name starts with Abbey Joseph…
that’s a nice site, btw, Chris..and a good idea to rank “the gurus.”
LikeLike
No, they shouldn’t. But notice I said nothing of Russell’s forecasts or recommendations. I spoke of the accuracy of his Primary Trend Indicator. Russell often advises his subscribers to act differently from what his PTI is saying they should do. That is because he has already made a lot of money and worries mostly about the danger of loss. He doesn’t identify much with those who need to make money in the market. He will periodically state that his PTI is smarter than he is because it has kept investors on the right side of the primary trend, but he will then continue to give advice which is contrary to the indicator he created. Almost invariably this will occur when the PTI is above it’s 89-day MA but Russell still warns that loss avoidance must be the paramount consideration and that investors shouldn’t worry about money that they didn’t make. He is usually worried that the market could turn down suddenly and drag his indicator down with it, so in terms of his own actions he doesn’t place as much faith in his indicator as it deserves.
LikeLike
Then I give credit to the man. I heard he sold his business to someone else. Is that true?
LikeLike
+1: S becomes R. I would suggest the 1925 area, which held twice and created the two massive 2 and 1 day surges (intermediate b and minor b of intermediate c). hence i see that level -1925ish- as “S becomes R” on the intermediate-degree of things. that would also fit nicely with Tony’s proposal of the 1929 OEW pivot (+/- 7) being the likely candidate for intermediate a of major b.
we now need minute b and c of minor c to finish intermediate a this week, IMHO. then intermediate b over next 5 days (?), and intermediate c similarly, finishing major b in about 3-4 weeks total. then all of november can be doom and gloom so december can be nicely bullish.
LikeLike
Thank you Tony very clear…
LikeLike
My thoughts….Wave 4 ended today or 5-10 points more upside tomorrow and then monster drop below 1800 on deck.
LikeLike
Iamanewbie – are you counting five Int waves or something else, thanks
LikeLike
wave 1 at 1925 Wave 2 at 1970 wave 3 at 1820 wave 4 1900ish wave 5 kaboom
LikeLike
I am aware of that count (proposed by Prechter, Danerics,etc)…it implies an end of Cycle 1 up! I think highly premature to think at that crash at this point. Rates are very low, money still cheap and the banksters are very sensitive for deflation signs…ready to “act” again if needed…so…
LikeLike