friday update

SHORT TERM: gap up and go, DOW +263

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened higher and gained a huge 2.6%. US index futures were much higher overnight. At 8:30 Housing starts were reported higher: 1017k v 956k, Building permits were reported higher: 1018k v 998k, and FED chair Yellen gave a speech: The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1879 and continued to rally. The SPX had closed at 1863 yesterday. As the market continued to rally at 10am Consumer sentiment was reported at a seven year high: 86.4 v 84.6. The market continued to rally until around noon when the SPX hit 1898. Then it started to pullback. Around 2pm the SPX hit 1878 and then tried to rally. The rally carried the SPX to 1892 by 3:30, then a pullback ended the week at 1887.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.45%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.15%. Bonds lost 13 ticks, Crude gained 35 cents, Gold lost $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Last night the FED reported a rise in the Monetary base: $4.114tn v $4.036tn. Today the WLEI was reported lower again: 51.0% v 51.6%.

The market gapped open for the fourth day this week on Options expiration Friday. Been a wild week. The gap up jumped right over the 1869 pivot range, which was resistance yesterday, and the rally carried the SPX right to the 1901 pivot range. Where it ran into some resistance. Today was actually a quieter day, wave-wise, than any day this week. This market has been making triple digit moves in the DOW, on a daily basis, for quite some time. Volatility like this often indicates an ongoing correction. While we may have ended the Major wave A downtrend at SPX 1821, volatility is likely to continue during this potential Major wave B uptrend. Will cover where we think we are in the weekend update. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: Major A downtrend may have bottomed

LONG TERM: bull market in Primary IV


About tony caldaro

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27 Responses to friday update

  1. fotis2 says:

    Hi first post thanks for excelent work on ew Tony been following closely a couple months learning a lot much apreciated!

  2. rabbittrader1 says:

    As a relatively new member of TONY’s OEW SITE., I would like to join the OEW WINE AND WHISKY CLUB. Maybe also the COFFEE CLUB. Will ANYONE NOMINATE me for membership? OR does it need to be TONY? Look for a GAP up opening on Monday for SPX. IMHO We did not CLOSE at 1900 today (closer to it than I thought, however.

  3. Thanks, Tony, for your daily updates … all for a generous zero cents. They are always much looked forward to. Your weekend commentary is a breakfast treat!

    -OEW Coffee Club Member

  4. fishonhook says:

    I went short some near the close so expect a gap up Monday. Mostly stock picks though.

  5. blackjak100 says:

    Soul, do you have exact values for NYMO close today and where the upper BB lies? I think you gave them out yesterday.

  6. travis01 says:

    Thanks TC! Maybe just a good couple weeks, but I think I’m starting to gell more with your same targets. I still have a long way to go but hittin singles daily.

  7. mjtplayer says:

    Wow, WLEI continues drop, now down to 51. Big drop this week, getting dangerously close to 50

    Thank you Tony for everything you do, have a great weekend!

  8. playitkool says:

    First post ever anywhere . Have been reading the blog daily for 5 months and would like to thank all of the regulars for posting their thoughts on the market but of course especially mr. Caldaro for not only sharing his insight but also managing such a great forum . Thank you Tony, you are much appreciated

  9. blackjak100 says:

    Thx tony! The rally was predictable today due to the wedge formation needing one more leg up. The strength was not predictable. Anyhow, the NYMO closed farther above it’s upper BB than it has the last 2 yrs. I see it as a big short term sell bull or bear. If anyone has any data farther back to see what happened the day/week following…please share!

    Bull: completed leading diagonal at 1898 which normally has a deep retrace for wav ii – 1841 pivot?

    Bear: wave iv complete at 1898 and heading to sub 1821 barring a truncation

  10. soulsurfer says:

    Thanks Tony!

    Warren Buffet is buying this correction:

    Last time I checked he’s a smart investor and very rich man…, hence, why I’d spell this correction as: O P P O R T U N I T Y.

  11. selhai says:

    Thanks, Tony.

    Those blue horizontals on the two weeklies, I take it they are targets for C. On the SPX, you prefer something between 1627 and 1646, as a guide? If C is about 320 – 198 x 1.618 – then that provides some targets for B….??

  12. magnus1234 says:

    Finally some volatilty. Me like. Thnx Tony.

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