tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW -6

Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.0%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.2%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up to SPX 1883 at the open. The SPX had closed at 1875 yesterday. In the opening minutes the SPX hit 1890, then dropped to 1876 by 10am. After that it went into rally mode. The SPX then made a choppy move to 1899 by noon: 1885-1878-1890-1885-1899. Then the SPX reversed and started to pullback. At 12:30 it hit SPX 1889, bounced to 1895 just past 1pm, then made a slightly lower low for the downtrend at SPX 1872 just before 3:30. Then the market rallied to SPX 1883 before pulling back to 1878 to end the day.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.20%. Bonds gained 11 ticks, Crude dropped $3.85, Gold gained $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Tomorrow: Retail sales, the PPI and the NY FED at 8:30, Business inventories at 10am, then the FED’s beige book at 2pm.

The market gapped up at the open today, rallied to SPX 1890, pulled back to 1876, then rallied to 1899. then it did its recently normal afternoon selloff, making a new downtrend low at SPX 1872 by two points. During this mornings rally we posted a tentative Major A green label at the lows. We observed, and posted in the comments last night, that the market was about oversold as it had been during every downtrend of Primary III, and two of the three downtrends of Primary II. Despite the volatile action again today, which should continue throughout Primary IV, the technicals did not display any signs of a further breakdown. Should the SPX lose the 1869 pivot (1862-1876), however, then Major wave A is likely extending. For now we think the OEW 1869 pivot should hold. Short term support is at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance a the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Short term momentum displays a positive divergence at this afternoon’s low. Best to your trading the Beige book!

MEDIUM TERM: Major A downtrend may be bottoming

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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320 Responses to tuesday update

  1. waiting for an 1-2-3 set up to take place – short term only at this point

    until then, patience!

    Charts: http://tradesweekly.blogspot.com/

  2. Netflex getting a haircut down 25 Percent in after hours

  3. johnnymagicmoney says:

    OMG HS! MF! WTF! LOL! That was nuts………………I was long in the morn and thought about selling but I have to tell you it smelled like a short rally would happen, that and the R2K has been showing tons of divergence. I also noticed that up until today everyone was pretty confident of their short term marks yet when this thing was selling off like mad there was a lot of confusion. I used the lack of clarity to buy all the way down. Turned a 70k loss in UPRO into a 40k gain but shit my pants in the process. I am in cash now – I have no clue whats gonna happen

  4. buddyglove says:

    What a very disturbing and disgusting photo….I really hope TONY will Delete This !!!!!!

  5. FiveStars says:

    VIX is collapsing.

  6. rc1269 says:

    well that’s that folks. see ya at 1920

    • blackjak100 says:

      Very weird – still using 1885 as line in sand but Major B could be done in a week at this pace.

  7. rc1269 says:

    gonna be a heck of a bullish candle for today

  8. mjtplayer says:

    Semi’s and .RUT now positive, trannies looking to go positive. If the market can hold-on through the close, then SPX 1,820 might be it for major a.

    50% retrace for major b? 1,920-ish area next week?

  9. FiveStars says:

    LOL 🙂 … Really needed a laugh today.

  10. tommyboys says:

    After all the panic over the past few years over spending look at that – deficit is down dramatically…

  11. llerias7 says:

    Tony, P2 was a declining 5 waves move corecting 22% in a month!
    What are the chances that P4 will resemble that?

  12. rabbittrader1 says:

    Red Dragon: Are you living in Colorado ? 2024 top on PV? I thought you were on board with me that there will be no completed PV. Anyway I’m long today November SSO , $115 calls at 0.79cents in addittion to my SPXL of yesterday, plus a bunch of FCEL at $1.62 yesterday.

    • reddragonleo says:

      No I have a place in Florida and in WV. As for the 202.45 SPY call I don’t know what Tony will call it but I think it might be hit. Possibly it’s an extensive of P3 or some Major Wave B up that pierces the start of A down? I don’t know?

      I just know the the “operators” like to trick everyone and as this market starts to rally up the super computer running the market (I call it SkyNet from the Terminator movies, or you call it HAL2000 from Space Odyssey) see’s all the stops where the bears are shorting and will keep hitting them like Ms. Pacman eating dots.

      So everyone expecting some nice Fibonacci level of 50% seems unrealistic too me. SkyNet will see all of that and do something to fool every and NOT make it obvious. Meaning either it’s a choppy up/down action like the 2 months after the August 8th, 2011 low before the last wave fell… or they run it up nonstop like the June 16th, 2011 low to the July 7th high (which was just a few points below a double top).

      My only reason to pick that SPY target is this: http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/SPY-FP-202.45-on-09-19-2014.png

      I don’t know if it’s a real FP target or not? And I don’t know the time frame if it’s real. It could be for next year? Don’t know? But I do know that the operator put out signals to where they are going to take the market to and only the insiders can read them.

      I did a video back in 2010 about the “flash crash” as the operators put a FP at midnight the day before it crashed. It went down to the FP and reversed. I seen my first FP on January 11th, 2010 showing a 97 point on the SPX on a day that it only had about a 5-6 point range. It hit that FP 3 weeks later and reversed back up the rest of the year.

    • reddragonleo says:

      P.S. I’m looking for one more down move tomorrow and then long XIV

    • reddragonleo says:

      One more thing… I am on board with you on the failed P5, but I just not sure how the time frame will play out?

  13. Would just like to thank everyone who is taking the time to message out their market expectations and fib work and wave work. Whether it ends up being right – who knows – but it is good exercise for my brain to walk thru it and learn… The regular posters of these – again thank you!

  14. blackjak100 says:

    Just to clarify, I’m not in the cycle wave B camp. However, I believe Major A will be 5 waves down meaning P4 will be a zigzag. There’s no +D on the daily which Tony said himself is unusual. The bottom of wave III shows the strongest momentum which either the middle or end should do of a third wave. Also, I’m almost certain we will still not get a close above lower BB on the NYMO because breadth is not bad all things considered. I’m favoring wave III completion at 1821. Updated count for Major A….

    Wave I = 2019-1926
    Wave II = 1926-1978 (lasted about 2 days)
    Wave III = 1978-1821 (just beyond 1.618 * wave i)
    Wave IV = 1869 pivot? (lasting about 2 days and topping on OPEX Fri)
    Wave V = 1779 pivot?

    My line in the sand will be close above 1885 which means Major B underway. GL and Cheers!

    • blackjak100 says:

      forgot to mention if wave IV tops at 1869 pivot, then wave I = wave V @ 1779 pivot. Sounds easy but I’m betting a test of 1800ish is around the corner next week followed by much bigger bounce.

  15. Gary Lewis says:

    close at the lows? Or Wave B begins?

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