friday update

SHORT TERM: correction makes lower lows, DOW -115

Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.5%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.7%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 Export (-0.2% v -0.3%)/Import prices (-0.1% v 0.0%) were reported lower. The market opened three points below yesterday’s SPX 1928 close, dipped to 1922, then rallied to 1937 all in the opening minutes. The market then dropped to SPX 1913 by 10:30. After that it started to rally. By 11am it hit SPX 1925, pulled back to 1917 by 11:30, then hit 1935 by 12:30. Then it headed lower again. By 1:30 the SPX hit 1923, bounced to 1929 by 2pm, then dropped to 1906 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.90%, and the NDX/NAZ were -2.40%. Bonds gained 9 ticks, Crude lost 45 cents, Gold ended flat, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1901 and 1869 pivots, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 51.6% v 52.0%.

Semiconductors gapped down at the open today, pressuring the Techs and they led the general market for the rest of the day. The SPX opened slightly lower, dropped to a new low for the downtrend (1922), rallied, then dropped to 1913. All of this in the first hour of trading. The drop below SPX 1920 cleared out the chance for a potentially big counter rally. But the market did rally to SPX 1936 during the noon hour. After that it headed back towards the lows of the day, and ended even lower. This certainly looks and acts like Primary IV, with Techs now leading to the downside. During the day we added some detail to the SPX hourly chart, and will discuss what we see in the weekend update. Short term support is at the 1901 and 1869 pivots, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Short term momentum put in a positive divergence at the initial low, rose near neutral, then headed lower again. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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82 Responses to friday update

  1. esvxm says:

    Thanks Tony for the analysis!
    S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, R2K and NYA all on sell signal since the pattern called a top:

  2. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Thanks bunny……I am assuming that you expect the b rally to go to the 1956 pivot when u say 1960 yes? (Falling short of the 73 pivot we hit wens correct? Am I reading u right or is there something more to the 1960 number? Also would you expect a larger bounce in SPY or IWM?

  3. ariez5 says:

    Thank you to Tony and all those who post with the aim of helping, not feeding egos.

  4. Am I the only one just hanging around watch this down trend and waiting for it to be done? Am liking the options premiums being so high for selling. Not all stocks are crashing. Anyhow decided to basically take the last month or so off and let the market find it’s way down. Markets like this bring out the most extreme emotions in people.

    I’m looking for an entry in GDX for a longer term position. Maybe hold for a year or more. Anyone have any downside targets? I’m looking for one more washout in those stocks, perhaps in the next month or so. Am looking to buy some GDX and sell calls every month for a bit of cash flow until it rises 40-50%. Any thoughts on an entry price?

  5. uncle10 says:

    Thanks Tony. big boy m has grown up to a Man now..😉
    Great weekend all.

  6. For the first time sine Dec. 2012 the weekly RSI has printed below the all important 50 line..this has been the longest stretch with printing below the line in atleast 30 years. FWIW.

  7. Tony what do u think the chances are of a relief rally bounce off of where we closed before more pain.

  8. Anyone think A at 1926 B at 1977 and C at 1800?

  9. CB says:

    what’s quite interesting is that Bulkowski is classifying AAPL as a symmetrical triangle today…not sure whether AAPL is as massively relevant for the Naz as it used to be but it’s still pretty relevant, isn’t it … and Bulkowski himself has an excellent record…I remember asking him for his opinion once as thought I saw one thing and he told me he saw something different…sure enough, he was right =) … So, AAPL….perhaps it’s worth putting on your radar, guys..

  10. pooch77 says:

    For the record sitting in cash,i hate positions over the weekend,my heart says gap down Monday as the chart on techs are still pointed straight down,my head said take your profits today and wait 2-3 days for market to settle out.Want to see one more rally then short for 1700 snp

    • omahared says:

      I’m still 66% short. Waiting for the break of 1901/1905 which should produce capitulation and a good chance to take profits before the B Wave bounce.

  11. C_H_M says:

    Thanks Tony….Enjoy the weekend all.

  12. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony
    Enjoy the weekend amigo

  13. elmer510 says:

    Thank you Tony. You’re the Man.
    Look forward to your weekly update.

  14. lunker1 says:

    Hi Tony, now that we’re down near 1905 again do you have a revised bullish count that is maybe looking for an intermediate 4 irregular flat?

  15. We are approaching both potential levels of support in the weekly and daily as well as oversold conditions in shorter time frames.


  16. sibyn says:

    Månday RCH >1883>1951,5 Then goal for RCH>1775

    • sibyn says:

      Long Wednesday 15th 1876-1883 for goal 1951,5 Then Short again.Trading opportunities down to >1775. Only my roadmap.

      • cmucha68 says:

        What could cause a rally of about 70 points without the FED in the back anymore now and why not straight down further to 1850 or more the entire week ?

      • pooch77 says:

        Think the dip buyers are wising up here,need the weekly charts to bottom,how many times bulls gonna get bitchslapped before the get the message PIV

      • sibyn says:

        I go strictly by mathematical rules that CH / RCH has. 15th – 16th mode is to go short

      • sibyn says:

        Sorry I go strictly by mathematical rules that CH / RCH has. 15th – 16th mode is to go long

      • cmucha68 says:

        Sibyn, with ES down at 1894 already and spx should follow there are only 25+ points for that

      • cmucha68 says:

        That can be reached on Monday perhaps. So what should the market then on Tuesday if your buying time is only Wednesday but reached those levels earlier ?

      • fionamargaret says:

        Thank you sibyn.

      • alexhartley1 says:

        I have Tuesday set to be a rally after further falls Monday Sibyn (hey turnaround Tuesday and all that!). I think Monday is likely to market the bottom for Major A. 17-20th should mark a top of sorts but that period seems a little short for Major B.

  17. The Dow has closed where it opened this year, you have EW to blame for that. Zero sum gain for buy and hold crowd.

  18. Quite and interesting day today…..looks like my original predict calling for 1901 SPX pivot (+/-5 pts ) was a better prediction than my re-evaluated prediction of 1918 SpX (+/-7 pts); nevertheless, both predictions ended up serving me well since I enjoying playing both sides of the coin when the opportunities know.

    have a great weekend and hope no one was serious injury today chopolollapaloozzzzzza can do that to traders.

  19. rabbittrader1 says:

    Well Johnny Magic etc.But we are about to bottom on Monday at 1880 APPROXIMATELY . I do not think we will see your 1869 pivot TONY ,. Not Now ! .So Sue me., I thought , ( or calculated) Wthat we would see 1876 t0 1880 today, but we Will on Monday IMVHO. I am often a day or two off, but I AM NOT PERFECT (ONLY A RABBIT). So Johnny expect a move up to 1960 after MONDAY LOW ., then the beginning of a . major drop Down !! GOING TO THE mad HATTERS tea , PARTY AGAIN ! ANY FEMALES AROUND WANT TO COME WITH me ???

    • wildmick says:

      youre stoned already. just take the mannequin with you.

      • rabbittrader1 says:

        MR WILDMICK, DOES YOUR NAME MEAN YOU ARE Irish?? The Rabbit is Scottish ON his mothers side MacLeod from the Isle . of SKYE .(.I am Austrian-Hungarian on my fathers side (Vienna ), I was a U.S.Naval Air Force Carrier Pilot.. I have Three University Degrees . I worked for 9 different NYSE CORPORATIONS AND became President of an AMEX divisionj. But did other stuff. Was Champion Swimmer( NCAA) ,POLE VAULTER, AND boxed for my batallion in the Navy (Never lost a fight) I have a LONG record of WALL street relationships and COMMODiTYS etc. Probably one of the best Racing Sailors in the NORTH EAST. My mothers ancestral home is DUNVEGAN CASTLE built in 1237 on the ISLE OF SKYE in Scotland. My cousin Sir John MacLeod “OF MacLeod is CHIEF of the Clan . OUR MOTTO “”Be a brazen bull”, AND “Hold Fast “Jammed” for three hours with” THE KING” in Feb. 1957. Play blues guitar and ukelele..(Just so you know a little more about me).

      • wildmick says:

        you forgot to list the gold star you got in typing class. (rolleyes)

      • CB says:

        “you forgot to list the gold star you got in typing class. (rolleyes)” …LOL!!…too funny, wildmick

    • winkinatu says:

      Hey wascally wabbit.
      Are u related to the gambling wabbit who did his doe his brothers doe and 30 bucks beside.
      Sorry Tony. I’m just a lurker. Love your work.

  20. wildmick says:

    thank you tony. you done good mister.

  21. thecustomer14 says:

    thecustomer14 says:

    October 1, 2014 at 2:54 pm

    IMO TVIX will hit $4 before the end of next week, but of course everyone has their own limitations for risk.

    Sold right at my target… looking for a bounce in the markets next week before loading up again. Have a great weekend everyone!

  22. Thanks Tony…..weekly SPX……closed slightly below lower BB….are we getting ready for a weekly lower BB ride!!! may see a bounce first on dailys……but it does appear this may be the first real correction we have had for some time…….great calls Tony (keep of the awesome work)

  23. bhtrade says:

    Such an ugly close it almost has to be short term bullish

  24. Tony, when you say the drop below 1920 rules out the possibility for a big counter rally, does that mean if it has a big rally it would be a real rally rather than corrective? Thanks

  25. johnnymagicmoney says:

    day before yesterday I meant

  26. mharrison60 says:

    Thanks Tony.

    Dax and FTSE at lows for 2014.

  27. johnnymagicmoney says:

    man o man had 70k shares of TZA and almost peed my pants when it started to rally in the AM …….managed to sell at the close for a sweet gain ……………my first post here and dont have much to share except a) people still have not accepted there is going to be a correction (or that there even can be one) b) mainstream media and the mainstream investor has a funny viewpoint of what a correction in percentage terms is …………….therefore until I hear people freaking out like this bull market is over and giving up then and having hedgies taking their leverage down then a + b = c ……………….. c being its got further to go

    its the counter rallies along the way that scare me guys ………..yesterday was messed up

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