wednesday update

SHORT TERM: wild Wednesday, DOW +275

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.7%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.7% as well. US index futures were higher then lower overnight. The market opened one point above yesterday’s SPX 1935 close. In the opening minutes in dipped to SPX 1934, bounced to 1940, then dropped to 1931 by 10am. After a rally to SPX 1938 by 10:30, the market made a new downtrend low at 1925 by 11am. After that it started to rally. At 11:30 the SPX hit 1937, pulled back to 1932 by noon, then moved higher. Just before the FOMC minutes at 2pm:, the market was trading at SPX 1943. After the minutes were released the SPX rallied to 1962 by 2:30. Then after a pullback to SPX 1955 by 3pm, it rallied higher. Nearing the close the SPX hit 1970, then closed at 1969.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.70%, and the NDX/NAZ were +2.00%. Bonds gained 18 ticks, Crude lost $1.20, Gold rose $12, and the USD was lower. Medium term support jumps back up to the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 and 2019 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then Wholesale inventories at 10am.

The market opened flat today, bounced around in the first hour of trading, then made a lower low at SPX 1925. After that the market had a rally to SPX 1937, pulled back, and then took off to the upside. We had expected at the lower low Minor wave a to complete and then a 20+ point rally for Minor b. But the rally that followed was a lot more than expected. We labeled the SPX 1925 low as Minor wave a.

However, since the SPX did not drop below 1905 and with today’s unexpected surge, the possibility of an extending Int. wave v comes back into play. The downtrend could be counted as a completed complex flat into today’s SPX 1925 low. Should the OEW 1973 pivot range (1966-1980) be exceeded to the upside we will give this alternate count more consideration. Short term support is at the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 pivot and SPX 1985/1986. Short term momentum hit quite overbought during today’s rally. Best to your trading this volatile market!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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301 Responses to wednesday update

  1. hawkeyes2014 says:

    Don’t underestimate the potential for waterfall selling to continue tomorrow and into Monday. Closed near lows and dip buyers getting tired…….

  2. Ryan Parker says:

    Feels like the SPX needs a gap down to take out this 1925-1930 support range.

  3. with the over /under of 40. Need to whip that horse into the close

  4. Gary Lewis says:

    I’ve been nibbling on some cheap calls here in case we get any oversold rally. Doesn’t look like it’s going to break down. go figure.

  5. uncle10 says:

    Banks and fed closed on Monday but markets open……… hmmmm. that might be an interesting day? as if we need any more interest…

  6. donaldfagan says:

    Tony/Anyone …
    How come Primary III is blue on some of Tony’s charts but green on others?
    I take it that Tony has gotten confirmation on PIII completion at this point.

  7. buddyglove says:

    Kudos to all traders who made money on this roller-coaster….without throwing up.
    Just taken small longs on Dow and Dax….Tentative signs of bottoming and Dax is on trendline back to sep 2011, worth a shot imho…Gl and good health to all.

  8. lunker1 says:

    continuation diamond since 2PM?
    target approx 1914/22

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