tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -273

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.4%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market gapped down to SPX 1954 at the open. The SPX had closed at 1965 yesterday. In the opening minutes the SPX hit 1947, then tried to rebound. By 10:30 the SPX hit 1959, then pulled back to 1948 by 11:30. After that the market hit SPX 1957 by 12:30, bounced around a bit and then headed lower. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1935 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.55%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.50%. Bonds rallied 21 ticks, Crude dropped $1.55, Gold rose $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance now at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Tomorrow: FOMC minutes at 2pm.

The market gapped down to the 1956 pivot at the open today, broke through it in the opening minutes, then rebounded to reenter the range before heading lower. Today was the seventh gap opening since the downtrend began on Sept. 19th. When the SPX broke through the 1956 pivot range we posted an Int. wave b at Monday’s SPX 1978 high. From that high the SPX has declined in an a-b-c: 1958-1969-1947, bounced to 1959, and now appears to be in another a-b-c: 1948-1957-xxxx. When it concludes it should end Minor wave a of Intermediate C. Then we may get another 20+ point rally for Minor b, before heading even lower into Minor wave c. Keep in mind we still need to drop below SPX 1905 to be certain Primary IV is underway. Probabilities still suggest a 75% certainty. Short term support is at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Short term momentum is extremely oversold. Best to your FOMC trading tomorrow!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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200 Responses to tuesday update

  1. Peter Sliney says:

    The weekly $indu never seemed to make a convincing top. Maybe it’s on it’s way to doing that now.

  2. tommyboys says:

    Key reversal day…bull side

  3. buddyglove says:

    C.N. will turn up any minute now with a “Big Up” target…

  4. CN Big up may have found a new life and healed itself. Bears may be screwed again. 2130 by next week.

  5. reddragonleo says:

    Hitting resistance now from trendlines: http://screencast.com/t/Mn8zk4k3Lxu

    Is the low in now or is this just a “bear squeeze from hell”?

  6. Oh shite! we got three 6’s ….. 1966.6……….devil owns this casino

  7. IAWT says:

    All. The candle today is a bull print. Volume is up over yesterday, bears are abundant. Seasonals are bull. I have 1970 as reversal level. Looks pretty grim for bears.

  8. mrgreen2010 says:

    One nasty top this is as 2% daily swings..up.. down..up ….down….like the EKG of a stressed-out patient about to die!

  9. mjtplayer says:

    SPX now trading 1,965 – which is past the 1,956 pivot range; that’s slightly concerning. The .786 retracement of minor A is at SPX 1,967; if the SPX moves past this area, lets say 1,970+, then that would be very concerning to the bears.

    Until then, it’s still minor B, albeit a strong minor B

  10. buddyglove says:

    Just Noise……

  11. It’s a very manipulated market. Who is still short???
    Tony is the probability of 75/25 % P4 still stand???
    thank you

  12. prechterized says:

    amazing a 40 handle ramp in the S&P. Tony, anyway this can be corrective? smells super impulsive to me

  13. Anyone have any opinion on AA eps for tonight? I don’t trade stocks much anymore just futures so any recommendation work be appreciate. looking to play an option lotto ticket.

  14. drwarmington says:

    Hello Mr. Rabbit Trader, Are you still looking for a fall tomorrow or was that it today. Thanks for your insight.

  15. mjtplayer says:

    Nice rally off the lows of this morning, I thought the rally would take more time like a couple days, guess not. People pointing to the Fed minutes, wrong, we were already well off the lows by mid-day and the surge higher began just after 1:30pm – BEFORE the Fed minutes were released.

    Just bought back QID and VXX right here around SPX 1,961. After selling them out this morning, I didn’t think I’d be buying them back so soon, but that’s the market I guess 🙂

    Love this volatility, a trader’s dream. Looks like we could drop down to the 1,901 pivot area and complete major A as early as this Friday or next Monday – wow!

  16. rounder1944 says:

    B wave done, RSI-72

    • CB says:

      spx 1961.66 exceeded , so it looks like an impulse …referring to 5 min…5 completed or close to it..jmho

  17. 100 point reversal in Nasdaq. Let the holiday shopping begin early!

  18. The Fed minutes caused some buying in the hope that it will resume its easy money policy as a result of global economic slowing.USUALLY this is another one of these brief rallies that do not

    • mrgreen2010 says:

      Bought 10/10 97 QQQ and AAPL puts here… looking for the last hour sell and into weekend. TG I sold the last of my VIX calls this morning so I am on the houses money…bite me FED. Suspected FED was up to something as the turn on the DOW smelt fishy as the 11 AM EST turn I got rid of all short term puts. Gotta love the idiots at the FED…so predictable…on last chance for da boys to unload their poop to the shorts being pounded. The VIX looks like a buy here but I will wait for EOD or tomorrow AM confirmation before adding calls.

  19. nickokc says:

    so S&P printed 1961.66 do we go down from here to test 1900?

  20. ramdigitaldoc says:

    Anybody going short here?

  21. lunker1 says:

    25 1946
    34 1959
    55 1980

  22. gasman88 says:

    Hmm, so the world is fixed because of the Fed minutes…. amazing

  23. October 8, 2014 at 12:15 pm
    No one will ring a bell at the bottom and don’t bank on this silly market knowing that it is under the spell of Primary IV. Market is sillier than all the smart folks who are looking for 20% correction.

    Was not aiming to ring the bell with this post but if it did ring the bell then so be it!! ES was at 1930 right then!

    • buddyglove says:

      Very good timing on bell ringing…please return and ring it at the Top. 🙂

    • gasman88 says:

      This market’s resilience would be incredible if the entire correction was over by now after only 12 trading days. All the weaknesses around the world, commodities, oil, big sell-offs in many sectors and SP500 is down only a mere 4.6% from it’s peak?
      All investors need to do is to buy at 125 dma because this has worked for 2 years?
      Is it that easy, or it’s time to change the script which became so predictable??

  24. buddyglove says:

    Bazinga! ….Lovely Jubely 🙂

  25. prechterized says:

    Thank you for stops. All my shorts closed at 1931, and I grabbed some weekly calls for a nice triple. This is a pretty amazing broad based rally. Would be surprised if it’s corrective, but anything’s possible.

  26. IAWT says:

    The bull lives

  27. Looks like market didn’t get the memo that it can only rally 20 points from the lows!

Comments are closed.