friday update

SHORT TERM: gap up then rally, DOW +167

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 Q2 GDP came in as expected: +4.6% v +4.0%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1971 and continued to rally. The market had closed at SPX 1966 yesterday. At 10am the market hit 1976, Consumer sentiment was reported flat at 84.6%, and the market began to pullback. At 11:30 the SPX hit 1968 and then tried to rally again. The rally continued into the afternoon when the SPX hit 1986 around 2:30. A pullback to SPX 1981 followed, then the market bounced into a 1983 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.95%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.10%. Bonds lost 9 ticks, Crude gained 95 cents, Gold fell $3, and the USD was again higher. Medium term support rises to the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 52.0% v 52.1%.

Volatility continues. The market gapped up at the open today for the first time since last Friday. Pulled back to within two points of the opening gap, then rallied strongly for the rest of the day. Today’s action makes it five triple digit daily swings in the DOW this week. The rally looked impressive, and so did Wednesday’s rally to SPX 2000. Lots to discuss in the weekend update. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend in jeopardy

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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33 Responses to friday update

  1. Shree Singhi says:


    Superb reading ! Let’s hope the rest of your forecast also comes true.




  2. torehund says:

    From top in 08 until now a double zig/zag or a long single zig/zag. USD on the path upwards, likely for good. As goes other currencies NOK, SEK especially weak vs the USD. Both countries have lage growing untamed problems With their respective socialist states. In a way their ideology has been prosperous but I think it has peaked, and then the slide is just slowly gaining momentum.


  3. How were the highs made? The lows? The final low? What is the character of the pauses or rests? Where is support? Where resistance? How about range and volatility? There is so much information on this chart, many behaviors that repeat and repeat and repeat regardless of market and bar interval and timeframe. But you got to start somewhere. So I marked this one up just a little bit, and tomorrow I will tweet my stance as of the right hand side of this chart. Do not lose sight of the fact that all these bars represent if the range of all the transactions between buyers and sellers during the interval covered by each bar. Don’t lose sight of the fact that as price rises some folks are making real money and others are losing real money, and the same goes for when price is declining. Buyers and sellers – real people who are fearful and greedy and nervous and exultant, those who think they know more than they do (the dumb money) and those who know how little they know and how much they don’t know (the smart money) 🙂


  4. mjtplayer says:

    Tony – you still 60/40 on the P4 count?


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